The False Promise of Foreign Fighters: The Effect of Somali Foreign Fighters on Civilian Victimization

Abstract

Why is there intra-rebel group variation in the amount of civilian victimization perpetrated during civil war? I focus on the connection between intra-rebel group distribution of foreign fighters and civilian victimization. I argue that cells within a rebel group that include more foreign fighters are going to be more likely to commit violence on civilians than cells that do not include foreign fighters. In order to make my argument, a most similar system qualitative design is implemented. Primary literature along with news sources gathered from NEXIS database are used to analyze three internal groups within al-Shabaab (2006 - present) during the Somali Civil War (1991-present); Jaysh al-Hisbah, The Amniyat, and Jaysh Ayman.

Notes

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7 Thomas Hegghammer, "The rise of Muslim foreign fighters: Islam and the globalization of Jihad." International Security 35, no. 3 (2010): 53-94.

8 Jelena Beslin and Marija Ignjatijevic, "Balkan foreign fighters: from Syria to Ukraine." (2017).

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11 Kristin M. Bakke, "Help wanted? The mixed record of foreign fighters in domestic insurgencies." International Security 38, no. 4 (2014): 150-187.; Maud Beelman, "'Mujahedeen’ Volunteers Cause Problems for Bosnia". Associated Press Worldstream. February 21, 1994, Monday. https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:3SJD-YVM0-0070-14YV-00000-00&context=1516831.; Ben Rich and Dara Conduit, "The impact of jihadist foreign fighters on indigenous secular-nationalist causes: Contrasting Chechnya and Syria." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38, no. 2 (2015): 113-131.; Austin C. Doctor, "Foreign fighters and conflict-related sexual violence." International Studies Quarterly 65, no. 1 (2021): 69-81.; Tricia Bacon and Daisy Muibu, "The Domestication of Al-Shabaab." The Journal of the Middle East and Africa 10, no. 3 (2019): 279-305.

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13 Jessica A. Stanton, "Regulating militias: Governments, militias, and civilian targeting in civil war." Journal of Conflict Resolution 59, no. 5 (2015): 899-923.; Pauline Moore, "When do ties bind? Foreign fighters, social embeddedness, and violence against civilians." Journal of Peace Research 56, no. 2 (2019): 279-294.; Hanne Fjelde and Lisa Hultman. "Weakening the enemy: A disaggregated study of violence against civilians in Africa." Journal of Conflict Resolution 58, no. 7 (2014): 1230-1257.

14 Sebastian Schutte, "Geography, outcome, and casualties: A unified model of insurgency." Journal of Conflict Resolution 59, no. 6 (2015): 1101-1128.; Macartan Humphreys and Jeremy M. Weinstein, "Handling and manhandling civilians in civil war." American Political Science Review 100, no. 3 (2006): 429-447.; Virginia Page Fortna, Nicholas J. Lotito, and Michael A. Rubin, "Don’t bite the hand that feeds: rebel funding sources and the use of terrorism in civil wars." International Studies Quarterly 62, no. 4 (2018): 782-794.

15 Zoe Marks, "Sexual violence in Sierra Leone’s civil war:‘Virgination’, rape, and marriage." African Affairs 113, no. 450 (2014): 67-87.

16 Robert Ulrich Nagel and Austin C. Doctor. "Conflict-related sexual violence and rebel group fragmentation." Journal of Conflict Resolution 64, no. 7-8 (2020): 1226-1253.

17 Charles W. Mahoney, "Splinters and schisms: Rebel group fragmentation and the durability of insurgencies." Terrorism and Political Violence 32, no. 2 (2020): 345-364.

18 Peter Rudloff and Michael G. Findley, "The downstream effects of combatant fragmentation on civil war recurrence." Journal of Peace Research 53, no. 1 (2016): 19-32.

19 Pauline Moore, "When do ties bind? Foreign fighters, social embeddedness, and violence against civilians." Journal of Peace Research 56, no. 2 (2019): 279-294.

20 Kristine Eck and Lisa Hultman. "One-sided violence against civilians in war: Insights from new fatality data." Journal of Peace Research 44, no. 2 (2007): 233-246.

21 Emily Kalah Gade, Mohammed M. Hafez, and Michael Gabbay. "Fratricide in rebel movements: A network analysis of Syrian militant infighting." Journal of Peace Research 56, no. 3 (2019): 321-335.

22 Jake Harrington and Jared Thompson, “Examining Extremism: Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen (al Shabaab).” Www.csis.org. September 23, 2021. https://www.csis.org/blogs/examining-extremism/examining-extremism-harakat-al-shabaab-al-mujahideen-al-shabaab.

23 What Is al-Shabaab? (n.d.). Institute for Global Change. https://institute.global/policy/what-al-shabaab

24 Ibid.

25 Samantha Kruber and Stephanie Carver, "Insurgent Group Cohesion and the Malleability of ‘Foreignness’: Al-Shabaab’s Relationship with Foreign Fighters." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism (2021): 1-15.

26 Thomas Hegghammer, "The rise of Muslim foreign fighters: Islam and the globalization of Jihad." International Security 35, no. 3 (2010): 53-94.

27 Alex P Schmid, Foreign (terrorist) fighter estimates: Conceptual and data issues. International Center for Counter-Terrorism., 2015.

28 David Malet, "Why foreign fighters?: Historical perspectives and solutions." Orbis 54, no. 1 (2010): 97-114.

29 Terrance Ford, "The foreign fighter problem: Recent trends and case studies." In Foreign Policy Research Institute conference, vol. 27. (2010).

30 States News Service. “Designation of al-Shabaab” States News Service. (March 18, 2008). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:4S3F-1SH0-TX4V-20NN-00000-00&context=1516831.

31 Cedric Barnes and Harun Hassan, "The rise and fall of Mogadishu’s Islamic Courts." Journal of Eastern African Studies 1, no. 2 (2007): 151-160.

32 "Women and Al-Shabaab’s Insurgency [analysis]". International Crisis Group. (June 27, 2019). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:5WG3-DFV1-JBJ4-23SX-00000-00&context=1516831.

33 David H. Shinn, "Somalia’s new government and the challenge of al-Shabaab." CTC Sentinel 2, no. 3 (2009): 1-5.

34 Ibid.

35 "Women and Al-Shabaab’s Insurgency [analysis]". International Crisis Group. (June 27, 2019). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:5WG3-DFV1-JBJ4-23SX-00000-00&context=1516831.

36 Samantha Kruber and Stephanie Carver. "Insurgent Group Cohesion and the Malleability of ‘Foreignness’: Al-Shabaab’s Relationship with Foreign Fighters." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism (2021): 1-15.

37 Jonathan Manthorpe, "U.S. props up Somalia in battle with al-Qaida, terrorist groups; Urgency given to mission as evidence grows that foreign fighters are arriving in Somalia and neighboring Yemen". The Vancouver Sun (British Columbia). (June 26, 2009). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:7W16-Y110-Y8Y2-836G-00000-00&context=1516831.

38 "Somalia; President Attacks ‘Foreign Fighters’". Africa News. (May 25, 2009). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:7VSG-N3P1-2R4F-71NR-00000-00&context=1516831.

39 Samantha Kruber and Stephanie Carver, "Insurgent Group Cohesion and the Malleability of ‘Foreignness’: Al-Shabaab’s Relationship with Foreign Fighters." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism (2021): 1-15.; "Women and Al-Shabaab’s Insurgency [analysis]". International Crisis Group. (June 27, 2019). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:5WG3-DFV1-JBJ4-23SX-00000-00&context=1516831.

40 West warns that Somalia is becoming a haven for international terrorists. (n.d.). Www.hiiraan.com. https://hiiraan.com/news4/2009/Dec/13135/west_warns_that_somalia_is_becoming_a_haven_for_international_terrorists.aspx

41 David Malet, "Why foreign fighters?: Historical perspectives and solutions." Orbis 54, no. 1 (2010): 97-114.

42 Anthony Mitchell, "Extremists emerge as the real face of Somalia’s Islamic movement". Associated Press International. (October 5, 2006). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:4M28-H470-TWCX-N26V-00000-00&context=1516831.

43 Baron Bodissey, "Gates of Vienna News Feed 5/22/2009". Gates of Vienna. (May 22, 2009). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:7VS1-3C51-2RGX-T04J-00000-00&context=1516831.

44 West warns that Somalia is becoming a haven for international terrorists. (n.d.). Www.hiiraan.com. https://hiiraan.com/news4/2009/Dec/13135/west_warns_that_somalia_is_becoming_a_haven_for_international_terrorists.aspx

45 Samantha Kruber and Stephanie Carver, "Insurgent Group Cohesion and the Malleability of ‘Foreignness’: Al-Shabaab’s Relationship with Foreign Fighters." Studies in Conflict & Terrorism (2021): 1-15.

46 Jutta Bakonyi, "Governing endemic crisis: violence and legitimacy in the lives of Somalis." Hurst, 2018.

47 Ibid.

48 Ibid.

49 Ibid.

50 Ibid.

51 Ibid.

52 Ibid.

53 Ibid

54 Dan Joseph and Harun Maruf, Inside Al-Shabaab: The Secret History of Al-Qaeda’s Most Powerful Ally. (Indiana University Press, 2018), 139-140

55 Ibid.

56 Michael Keating and Matt Waldman, War and peace in Somalia: National grievances, local conflict and Al-Shabaab. Oxford University Press, 2019: 354

57 Michael Keating and Matt Waldman, War and peace in Somalia: National grievances, local conflict and Al-Shabaab. Oxford University Press, 2019: 56

58 Security and Governance in Somalia: Committee: Senate Foreign Relations; Subcommittee: African Affairs. CQ Congressional Testimony. (October 8, 2013 Tuesday). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:59J0-VPF1-F113-H1HB-00000-00&context=1516831.

59 "Somalia; Somalia’s Al-Shabab Revives, Renews Attacks". Africa News. (November 19, 2013). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:59W5-JMK1-DYR8-30KB-00000-00&context=1516831.

60 Mohamed Haji Ingiriis, "Insurgency and international extraversion in Somalia: the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) and Al-Shabaab’s Amniyat." African Security Review 29, no. 2 (2020): 125-151.

61 Ibid.

62 Dan Joseph and Harun Maruf, Inside Al-Shabaab: The Secret History of Al-Qaeda’s Most Powerful Ally. (Indiana University Press, 2018), 144

63 Ibid.

64 Mohamed Haji Ingiriis, "Insurgency and international extraversion in Somalia: the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) and Al-Shabaab’s Amniyat." African Security Review 29, no. 2 (2020): 125-151.

65 Dan Joseph and Harun Maruf, Inside Al-Shabaab: The Secret History of Al-Qaeda’s Most Powerful Ally. (Indiana University Press, 2018), 99

66 Ibid.

67 Security and Governance in Somalia: Committee: Senate Foreign Relations; Subcommittee: African Affairs. CQ Congressional Testimony. (October 8, 2013 Tuesday). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:59J0-VPF1-F113-H1HB-00000-00&context=1516831.

68 Dan Joseph and Harun Maruf, Inside Al-Shabaab: The Secret History of Al-Qaeda’s Most Powerful Ally. (Indiana University Press, 2018), 143

69 Ibid.

70 Ngala Chome, "Violent extremism and clan dynamics in Kenya." (2016).; Bryden, Matt, and Premdeep Bahra. "East Africa’s terrorist triple helix: The Dusit Hotel attack and the historical evolution of the jihadi threat." CTC Sentinel 12, no. 6 (2019): 2-11.

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72 Sunday Nation Team. "Terrorists on the run after defecting to ISIS". Sunday Nation (Kenya). (December 20, 2020). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:61JS-X5K1-F11P-X253-00000-00&context=1516831.

73 Nyambega Gisesa, "Inside Jaysh Ayman, al-shabaab's terror wing in Kenya". Daily Nation (Kenya). (November 27, 2020). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:61CW-PK41-F11P-X0M6-00000-00&context=1516831.

74 Nyaboga Kiage, "Change tack in war on Shabaab, experts tell KDF". Daily Nation (Kenya). (January 23, 2018). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:5RGB-PXJ1-JDJN-62XT-00000-00&context=1516831.

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76 Nyambega Gisesa, "Inside Jaysh Ayman, al-shabaab's terror wing in Kenya". Daily Nation (Kenya). (November 27, 2020). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:61CW-PK41-F11P-X0M6-00000-00&context=1516831.

77 Ibid.

78 Kristine Eck and Lisa Hultman, "One-sided violence against civilians in war: Insights from new fatality data." Journal of Peace Research 44, no. 2 (2007): 233-246.

79 Elijah OS Odhiambo, Thomas L. Maito, Janet Kassilly, Sarah Chelumo, Kennedy Onkware, and Wycliffe A. Oboka. "Al-Shabaab terrorists propaganda and the Kenya government response." International Journal of Humanities and Social Science 3, no. 7 (2013): 125-131.

80 Security and Governance in Somalia: Committee: Senate Foreign Relations; Subcommittee: African Affairs. CQ Congressional Testimony. (October 8, 2013 Tuesday). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:59J0-VPF1-F113-H1HB-00000-00&context=1516831.

81 "Somalia; Somalia’s Al-Shabab Revives, Renews Attacks". Africa News. (November 19, 2013). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:59W5-JMK1-DYR8-30KB-00000-00&context=1516831.

82 Galcalo Bocha, "Boni Forest: From green paradise to warzone". Daily Nation (Kenya). (July 19, 2017). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:5P28-MTJ1-JDJN-6278-00000-00&context=1516831.

83 Reed M. Wood, Jacob D. Kathman, and Stephen E. Gent, "Armed intervention and civilian victimization in intrastate conflicts." Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 5 (2012): 647-660.

84 Emily Kalah Gade, Mohammed M. Hafez, and Michael Gabbay. "Fratricide in rebel movements: A network analysis of Syrian militant infighting." Journal of Peace Research 56, no. 3 (2019): 321-335.

85 What Is al-Shabaab? (n.d.). Institute for Global Change. https://institute.global/policy/what-al-shabaab

86 Ibid.

87 Dan Joseph and Harun Maruf, Inside Al-Shabaab: The Secret History of Al-Qaeda’s Most Powerful Ally. (Indiana University Press, 2018), 136,139

88 Ibid.:139

89 Ibid.:140

90 Elijah OS Odhiambo, Thomas L. Maito, Janet Kassilly, Sarah Chelumo, Kennedy Onkware, and Wycliffe A. Oboka, "Al-Shabaab terrorists propaganda and the Kenya government response." International Journal of Humanities and Social Science 3, no. 7 (2013): 125-131.

91 Security and Governance in Somalia: Committee: Senate Foreign Relations; Subcommittee: African Affairs. CQ Congressional Testimony. (October 8, 2013 Tuesday). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:59J0-VPF1-F113-H1HB-00000-00&context=1516831.

92 Gábor Sinkó and János Besenyő, "Comparison of the Secret Service of al-Shabaab, the Amniyat, and the National Intelligence and Security Agency (Somalia)." International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence (2021): 1-21.

93 Dan Joseph and Harun Maruf. Inside Al-Shabaab: The Secret History of Al-Qaeda’s Most Powerful Ally. (Indiana University Press, 2018), 144

94 Gábor Sinkó and János Besenyő, "Comparison of the Secret Service of al-Shabaab, the Amniyat, and the National Intelligence and Security Agency (Somalia)." International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence (2021): 1-21.

95 Security and Governance in Somalia: Committee: Senate Foreign Relations; Subcommittee: African Affairs. CQ Congressional Testimony. (October 8, 2013 Tuesday). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:59J0-VPF1-F113-H1HB-00000-00&context=1516831.

96 Dan Joseph and Harun Maruf, Inside Al-Shabaab: The Secret History of Al-Qaeda’s Most Powerful Ally. (Indiana University Press, 2018), 143

97 Hassan J. Ndzovu, "Religious Indoctrination or Marginalization Theory? Muslim-Christian Public Discourses and Perceptions on Religious Violence in Kenya." Journal for the Study of Religion 30, no. 2 (2017): 154-177.; Nyambega Gisesa, "Inside Jaysh Ayman, al-shabaab's terror wing in Kenya". Daily Nation (Kenya). (November 27, 2020). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:61CW-PK41-F11P-X0M6-00000-00&context=1516831.

98 Oscar Gakuo Mwangi, "Five Reasons Why Militants Are Targeting Kenya’s Lamu County [analysis]". The Conversation Africa. (February 14, 2022). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:64SS-KS81-JBJ4-20RF-00000-00&context=1516831.

99 Nyambega Gisesa, "Inside Jaysh Ayman, al-shabaab's terror wing in Kenya". Daily Nation (Kenya). (November 27, 2020). https://advance-lexis-com.utk.idm.oclc.org/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:61CW-PK41-F11P-X0M6-00000-00&context=1516831.

100 Dan Joseph and Harun Maruf, Inside Al-Shabaab: The Secret History of Al-Qaeda’s Most Powerful Ally. (Indiana University Press, 2018).