The “Disaster Business”: Natural Disasters and Human Trafficking

Abstract

This article explores the relationship between natural disasters and an enduring security issue: human trafficking. Natural disasters and human trafficking deserve attention from scholars and practitioners as both human security issues and potential threats to traditional conceptions of state and international security. We argue that “disaster business” dynamics—the financial and political incentives of reconstruction—create conditions for human trafficking by increasing demand for trafficking, increasing perceived economic opportunity for trafficked individuals, and easing the ability of traffickers to operate. Analysis of data from the EM-DAT International Disaster Database and Human Trafficking Indicators Dataset supports this argument. Natural disaster increases the likelihood of a state being a trafficking destination, especially after more damaging disasters, where the government has political incentives to rebuild, and where anti-trafficking capacity is weak. Research and practice already demonstrate that natural disasters can make individuals more vulnerable to trafficking, increasing the likelihood of a state being a source of trafficking to other locations. This article demonstrates that disasters can also serve as a magnet for trafficking and points to policy options to disrupt this relationship.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Maria Chesnos for research assistance.

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data Availability Statement

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, [CZW], upon reasonable request.

Notes

1 Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, “EM-DAT The International Disaster Database,” 2020, https://www.emdat.be/database.

2 World Meteorological Organization, Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2019) (Geneva: WMO, 2021), https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3939847. Note also that the article uses the term “natural hazard” to refer to naturally occurring events with geophysical, hydrological, meteorological, climatological, biological, or extra-terrestrial origins. The consequences of such events, which can include physical, economic, social, or political consequences, are referred to as “natural disasters” when such consequences “overwhelm local capacity, necessitating a request for external assistance at the national or international level” Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, “EM-DAT The International Disaster Database.”. The Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, which produces the EM-DAT International Disaster Database, defines these as events that fulfill one of the following criteria: (1) 10 or more deaths; (2) 100 or more people affected/injured/or homeless; (3) The country declared a state of emergency and/or appealed for international assistance. This distinction between hazard and disaster follows the literature and the practitioner community see, for example Steven P. French, Dalbyul Lee, and Kristofor Anderson, “Estimating the Social and Economic Consequences of Natural Hazards: Fiscal Impact Example,” Natural Hazards Review 11, no. 2 (2010): 49–57, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2010)11:2(49); Eric K. Noji, “Medical and Public Health Consequences of Natural and Biological Disasters,” Natural Hazards Review 2, no. 3 (2001): 143–56, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2001)2:3(143); Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR), “Peril Classification and Hazard Glossary,” 2014, https://www.irdrinternational.org/uploads/files/2020/08/2h6G5J59fs7nFgoj2zt7hNAQgLCgL55evtT8jBNi/IRDR_DATA-Project-Report-No.-1.pdf. We primarily use the term “natural disaster” in this article because it is those natural hazards with significant physical, social, economic, and/or political consequences that are likely to be associated with human trafficking.

3 World Meteorological Organization, Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2019).

4 Joshua W. Busby, “Who Cares about the Weather?: Climate Change and U.S. National Security,” Security Studies 17, no. 3 (2008): 468–504, https://doi.org/10.1080/09636410802319529; Aleksandra Conevska, “International Cooperation and Natural Disasters: Evidence from Trade Agreements,” International Studies Quarterly 65, no. 3 (2021): 606–19, https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqab065; George Martine and Jose Miguel Guzman, “Population, Poverty and Vulnerability: Mitigating the Effects of Natural Disasters,” Environmental Change and Security Project Report, no. 8 (2002): 45; Stephen Nemeth and Brian Lai, “When Do Natural Disasters Lead to Negotiations in a Civil War?,” Journal of Peace Research 59, no. 1 (2022): 28–42, https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433211061952; Reed M. Wood and Thorin M. Wright, “Responding to Catastrophe: Repression Dynamics Following Rapid-Onset Natural Disasters,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 60, no. 8 (2016): 1446–72, https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002715596366.

5 Note that we use the colloquial term “human trafficking” in this article, which is sometimes referred to in legal and policy documents as “Trafficking in Persons” or “Trafficking in Human Beings.” They can be used interchangeably for the purpose of this article See, US Department of State Office to Monitor and Combat Trafficking in Persons, “Understanding Human Trafficking,” United States Department of State (blog), 2023, https://www.state.gov/what-is-trafficking-in-persons/.

6 Human Rights Caucus, “Recommendations and Commentary on the Draft Protocol to Combat International Trafficking in Women and Children Supplementary to the Draft Convention on Transnational Organized Crime,” 1999, www.hrlawgroup.org/site/program/traffic; United Nations, “Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons Especially Women and Children, Supplementing the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime,” November 15, 2000, https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/organized-crime/intro/UNTOC.html#Fulltext; US Department of State, “TVPA Amendments, Section 108 of the Trafficking Victims Protection Act, as Amended,” 2019, 15.

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19 Global Protection Cluster, “Anti-Trafficking in Humanitarian Action GPC Task Team (TT) Terms of Reference (ToRs),” 2017, https://www.globalprotectioncluster.org/_assets/files/about_us/tors/gpc-task-team-anti-trafficking-tors.pdf; Benedetta Cordaro, “Counter-Trafficking in Emergencies: Information Management Guide” (International Organization for Migration, 2020), https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/counter-trafficking-in-emergencies-information-guide.pdf.

20 United Nations, Human Development Report 1994 (Oxford New York, N.Y: Oxford University Press, 1994), 3.

21 Michael K. Lindell and Carla S. Prater, “Assessing Community Impacts of Natural Disasters,” Natural Hazards Review 4, no. 4 (2003): 182, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2003)4:4(176).

22 Michele Anne Clark, “Trafficking in Persons: An Issue of Human Security,” Journal of Human Development 4, no. 2 (2003): 249–55, https://doi.org/10.1080/1464988032000087578.

23 Busby, “Who Cares about the Weather?”; Joshua W. Busby, States and Nature: The Effects of Climate Change on Security, The Politics of Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2022), https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108957922; Conevska, “International Cooperation and Natural Disasters”; Martine and Guzman, “Population, Poverty and Vulnerability: Mitigating the Effects of Natural Disasters”; Nemeth and Lai, “When Do Natural Disasters Lead to Negotiations in a Civil War?”; Wood and Wright, “Responding to Catastrophe.”

24 Jayne Huckerby, “When Human Trafficking and Terrorism Connect: Dangers and Dilemmas,” Just Security, 2019, https://www.justsecurity.org/62658/human-trafficking-terrorism-connect-dangers-dilemmas/; UN Security Council Counter-Terrorism Committee, “Identifying and Exploring the Nexus between Human Trafficking, Terrorism, and Terrorism Financing | Security Council - Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC),” 2019, https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/ctc/content/identifying-and-exploring-nexus-between-human-trafficking-terrorism-and-terrorism-financing.

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26 Michael Werz and Laura Conley, “Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict,” Center for American Progress (blog), January 3, 2012, https://www.americanprogress.org/article/climate-change-migration-and-conflict/.

27 Duan Biggs, Reinette Biggs, Vasilis Dakos, Robert J. Scholes, and Michael Schoon, “Are We Entering an Era of Concatenated Global Crises?” Ecology and Society 16, no. 2 (2011), 27. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26268899; Didier Wernli, Lucas Böttcher, Flore Vanackere, Yuliya Kaspiarovich, Maria Masood, and Nicolas Levrat, “Understanding and Governing Global Systemic Crises in the 21st Century: A Complexity Perspective,” Global Policy 14, no. 2 (2023): 207, https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13192.

28 United Nations, “Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons Especially Women and Children, Supplementing the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime.”

29 United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, “Signature/Ratification Status of the Convention against Transnational Crime and Its Protocols,” United Nations: Office on Drugs and Crime, 2024, www.unodc.org/unodc/en/treaties/CTOC/signatures.html.

30 Judith G. Kelley, Scorecard Diplomacy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2017), 10–11; Judith G. Kelley and Beth A. Simmons, “Politics by Number: Indicators as Social Pressure in International Relations,” American Journal of Political Science 59, no. 1 (2015): 55–70, https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12119.

31 Judith Kelley, “The State Department Just Released Its Human Trafficking Report. Here’s Why It Matters.,” Washington Post (The Monkey Cage), July 3, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/07/03/the-state-department-just-released-its-trafficking-in-persons-report-heres-why-that-matters/.

32 US Department of State, “Trafficking in Persons Report,” 2021.

33 Seo-Young Cho, “Modeling for Determinants of Human Trafficking: An Empirical Analysis,” Social Inclusion 3, no. 1 (2015): 2, https://doi.org/10.17645/si.v3i1.125; Randall Akee, Arnab K. Basu, Arjun Bedi, and Nancy H. Chau, “Transnational Trafficking, Law Enforcement, and Victim Protection: A Middleman Trafficker’s Perspective,” The Journal of Law and Economics 57, no. 2 (2014): 349–86; Francesca Bettio and Tushar K. Nandi, “Evidence on Women Trafficked for Sexual Exploitation: A Rights Based Analysis,” European Journal of Law and Economics 29, no. 1 (2010): 15–42.

34 Cho, “Modeling for Determinants of Human Trafficking,” 3; Heather J. Clawson, Mary Layne, and K. Smalls, Estimating Human Trafficking into the United States: Development of a Methodology: Final Phase Two Report (ICF International Fairfax, VA: ICF International, 2007).

35 Cecilia Hyunjung Mo, “Perceived Relative Deprivation and Risk: An Aspiration-Based Model of Human Trafficking Vulnerability,” Political Behavior 40, no. 1 (2018): 247–77, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-017-9401-0; Alicja Jac-Kucharski, “The Determinants of Human Trafficking: A US Case Study,” International Migration 50, no. 6 (2012): 153, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2435.2012.00777.x.

36 Cho, “Modeling for Determinants of Human Trafficking,” 9.

37 Jacqui True, “Crossing Borders to Make Ends Meet: Sex Trafficking, the Maid Trade, and Other Gendered Forms of Labor Exploitation,” in The Political Economy of Violence against Women (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012), https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199755929.001.0001/acprof-9780199755929-chapter-4; United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Global Report on Trafficking in Persons (Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), 2016).

38 see for example, Cheryl Nelson Butler, “The Racial Roots of Human Trafficking,” UCLA L. Rev. 62 (2015): 1464.

39 United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Global Report on Trafficking in Persons, 10–11; Randall Akee, Arnab K Basu, Nancy H. Chau, Melanie Khamis, “Ethnic Fragmentation, Conflict, Displaced Persons and Human Trafficking: An Empirical Analysis,” in Migration and Culture (Bingley: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2010), 691–716.

40 Charles Anthony Smith and Heather M. Smith, “Human Trafficking: The Unintended Effects of United Nations Intervention,” International Political Science Review 32, no. 2 (2011): 125–45, https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512110371240; Sarah Mendelson, “Barracks and Brothels” (Washington: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2005), https://www.csis.org/analysis/barracks-and-brothels; Sam R. Bell, Michael E. Flynn, and Carla Martinez Machain, “U.N. Peacekeeping Forces and the Demand for Sex Trafficking,” International Studies Quarterly 62, no. 3 (September 1, 2018): 643–55, https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqy017.

41 Cho, “Modeling for Determinants of Human Trafficking,” 9.

42 Irina Molodikova, “One Step Forward and Two Steps Back: Migration Policy and Human Trafficking in the Russian Federation since the Palermo Protocol of 2020,” Journal of Human Trafficking 6, no. 2 (2020): 141–55, https://doi.org/10.1080/23322705.2020.1690101; Jenny Bryson Clark and Denese McArthur, “The Political and Economic Transition from Communism and the Global Sex Trafficking Crisis: A Case Study of Moldova,” Journal of Intercultural Studies 35, no. 2 (2014): 128–44, https://doi.org/10.1080/07256868.2014.885416; Anna Jonsson, ed., Human Trafficking and Human Security, 1st ed. (London: Routledge, 2012); United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, “Transnational Trafficking and the Rule of Law in West Africa: A Threat Assessment,” 2009, https://www.unodc.org/documents/nigeria//publications/Assessments-research-programmes/West_Africa_Report_2009.pdf.

43 Fikre Jesus Amahazion, “Global Anti-Sex Trafficking: State Variance in Implementation of Protectionist Policies,” Human Rights Quarterly 36, no. 1 (2014): 176–209, https://doi.org/10.1353/hrq.2014.0015; Human Rights Foundation, “Authoritarianism and Trafficking in Persons,” 2018, http://hrf.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HRF-policy-memo-2.pdf.

44 Human Rights Watch, “‘We Can’t Refuse to Pick Cotton’: Forced and Child Labor Linked to World Bank Group Investments in Uzbekistan,” 2017, https://www.hrw.org/report/2017/06/27/we-cant-refuse-pick-cotton/forced-and-child-labor-linked-world-bank-group; Freedom House, “Freedom in the World: North Korea,” 2019, https://freedomhouse.org/country/north-korea/freedom-world/2020; US Department of State, “2019 TIP Report, Cuba,” 2019, https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/2019-Trafficking-in-Persons-Report.pdf; US Department of Labor, “Child and Forced Labor Reports: Uzbekistan,” 2019, https://www.dol.gov/agencies/ilab/resources/reports/child-labor/uzbekistan; Human Rights Foundation, “Cuba’s Human Trafficking Business: A Huge State-Run Enterprise,” 2017, http://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/4a3a56_83430c53b8ba41209ae338c0b00af97e.pdf; Human Rights Watch, “World Report: North Korea, Events of 2018,” 2019, https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2019/country-chapters/north-korea#81c309.

45 Seo-Young Cho, Axel Dreher, and Eric Neumayer, “Does Legalized Prostitution Increase Human Trafficking?,” World Development 41 (2013): 67–82, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.05.023; Eric Neumayer, “Do International Human Rights Treaties Improve Respect for Human Rights?,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 49, no. 6 (2005): 925–53; Mark Gradstein, Branko Milanovic, and Yvonne Ying, “Democracy and Income In-Equality: An Empirical Analysis” (CESifo Working Paper, 2001).

46 Cho, “Modeling for Determinants of Human Trafficking”; Akee, Basu, Bedi, and Chau, “Transnational Trafficking, Law Enforcement, and Victim Protection”; Akee et al., “Chapter 28 Ethnic Fragmentation, Conflict, Displaced Persons and Human Trafficking”; Cho, Dreher, and Neumayer, “Does Legalized Prostitution Increase Human Trafficking?”; United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, “The Role of Organized Crime in the Smuggling of Migrants from West Africa to the European Union” (Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 2008); Louise Shelley, Human Trafficking: A Global Perspective (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010).

47 Asif Efrat, “Global Efforts against Human Trafficking: The Misguided Conflation of Sex, Labor, and Organ Trafficking,” International Studies Perspectives 17, no. 1 (2016): 34–54; Richard W. Frank and Beth A. Simmons, “National Law Enforcement in a Globalized World: The Case of Human Trafficking,” SSRN Scholarly Paper (Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network, 2013), https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2299624; Beth A. Simmons, Paulette Lloyd, and Brandon M. Stewart, “The Global Diffusion of Law: Transnational Crime and the Case of Human Trafficking,” International Organization, 2018, 1–33, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818318000036.

48 Worsnop, “The Disease Outbreak-Human Trafficking Connection.”

49 Allen and Strait, “Natural Disasters as a Magnet for Forced Labor: The United States and Japan Case Studies.”

50 Gurung and Clark, “The Perfect Storm.”

51 Bales, “What Is the Link between Natural Disaster and Human Trafficking and Slavery?”

52 Bowersox, “Natural Disasters and Human Trafficking.”

53 Allen and Strait, “Natural Disasters as a Magnet for Forced Labor: The United States and Japan Case Studies.”

54 Morgan Stahl, Stephanie Parenteau, and Keya Chilka, “Trafficking Prevention and Disaster Response,” 2018, https://nhttac.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/2020-02/Trafficking%20Prevention%20and%20Disaster%20Response%20Literature%20Review.pdf.

55 Allen and Strait, “Natural Disasters as a Magnet for Forced Labor: The United States and Japan Case Studies,” 119.

56 ACLU, “David, et al. v. Signal International, LLC, et al.,” American Civil Liberties Union, May 29, 2013, https://www.aclu.org/cases/david-et-al-v-signal-international-llc-et-al; Kathy Finn, “Indian Workers Win $14 Million in U.S. Labor Trafficking Case,” Reuters, February 19, 2015, sec. United Kingdom, https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0LN037/.

57 see, for instance, examples in Stahl, Parenteau, and Chilka, “Trafficking Prevention and Disaster Response”; American Federation of Teachers, “Workforce Commission Backs LFT and Filipino Teachers,” Louisiana Professional Educator’s Group, April 16, 2010, http://pegla0.la.aft.org/news/workforce-commission-backs-lft-and-filipino-teachers.

58 Smith and Smith, “Human Trafficking”; Mendelson, “Barracks and Brothels”; Bell, Flynn, and Martinez Machain, “U.N. Peacekeeping Forces and the Demand for Sex Trafficking”; US Department of State, “Trafficking in Persons Report” (Washington, DC: US Department of State, 2018), 329, https://www.state.gov/reports/2018-trafficking-in-persons-report/#:∼:text=The%202018%20Trafficking%20in%20Persons%20Report%20is%20an%20essential%20State,in%20the%20United%20States%20and.

59 Ibid., 329.

60 Allen and Strait, “Natural Disasters as a Magnet for Forced Labor: The United States and Japan Case Studies,” 121.

61 Stahl, Parenteau, and Chilka, “Trafficking Prevention and Disaster Response,” 8.

62 Lindell and Prater, “Assessing Community Impacts of Natural Disasters.”

63 US Department of State, “Trafficking in Persons Report” (Washington, DC: US Department of State, 2012), 276, https://2009-2017.state.gov/j/tip/rls/tiprpt/2012/index.htm.

64 US Department of State, “Trafficking in Persons Report” (Washington, DC: US Department of State, 2016), https://2009-2017.state.gov/j/tip/rls/tiprpt/2016/index.html.

65 UNDP, “The Impact of HIV-AIDS on Human Resources in the Malawi Public Sector,” UNDP, February 2002, https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/hiv-aids/the-impact-of-hiv-aids-on-human-resources-in-the-malawi-public-sector.html; Nana K. Poku, “HIV Prevention: The Key to Ending AIDS by 2030,” The Open AIDS Journal 10 (2016): 65–77, https://doi.org/10.2174/1874613601610010065; World Health Organization, ed., Monitoring Equity in Access to AIDS Treatment Programmes: A Review of Concepts, Models, Methods and Indicators (Geneva: World Health Organization, 2010).

66 Mary Ann Davis and Lee M. Miller, “The Impact of Hurricane Katrina on the U.S. Foster-Care System,” Children, Youth and Environments 24, no. 1 (2014): 91, https://doi.org/10.7721/chilyoutenvi.24.1.0082.

67 US Department of State, “Trafficking in Persons Report (Special Cases)” (Washington, DC: US Department of State, 2010), https://2009-2017.state.gov/j/tip/rls/tiprpt/2010/142763.htm.

68 US Department of State, “Trafficking in Persons Report” (Washington, DC: US Department of State, 2011), 95, https://2009-2017.state.gov/j/tip/rls/tiprpt/2011/index.htm.

69 Ibid., 338–41.

70 Blaikie, Cannon, Davis, and Wisner, At Risk, 22.

71 Stephanie Hepburn and Rita J. Simon, “Hidden in Plain Sight: Human Trafficking in the United States,” Gender Issues 27, no. 1 (= 2010): 1–26, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12147-010-9087-7.

72 Stahl, Parenteau, and Chilka, “Trafficking Prevention and Disaster Response”; Benjamin Thomas Greer, “Avoiding Cascading Effects: Why Suspension of The Davis-Bacon Act May Allow Forced/Exploited Labor - Human Trafficking Search,” December 12, 2022, https://humantraffickingsearch.org/avoiding-cascading-effects-why-suspension-of-the-davis-bacon-act-may-allow-forced-and-exploited-labor-to-occur-during-disaster-recovery/; US Department of Homeland Security, “Notice Regarding I-9 Documentation Requirements for Hiring Hurricane Victims,” September 6, 2005, https://ffs.dhs.ga.gov/information/memos/katrina_disaster/I-9%20and%20hurricane%20katrina%20louisiana%20hiring.pdf.

73 Blaikie, Cannon, Davis, and Wisner, At Risk.

74 United Nations, “Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons Especially Women and Children, Supplementing the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime.”

75 Ibid.

76 Richard W. Frank, “Human Trafficking Indicators, 2000-2011: A New Dataset,” SSRN Scholarly Paper (Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network, 2013), https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2314157; Richard W. Frank, “Human Trafficking Indicators: A New Dataset,” International Interactions, January 2, 2022, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03050629.2021.1968387.

77 e.g. Walk Free Foundation, “Global Slavery Index,” 2018, https://www.globalslaveryindex.org/.

78 Vicki Needham, “Feds Face Blowback over Malaysia Human Trafficking Upgrade,” Text, The Hill (blog), July 27, 2015, https://thehill.com/policy/finance/trade/249321-feds-face-blowback-over-malaysia-trafficking-upgrade/.

79 Rachel Harmon, Daniel Arnon, and Baekkwan Park, “TIP for Tat: Political Bias in Human Trafficking Reporting,” British Journal of Political Science 52, no. 1 (2022): 445–55, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123420000344.

80 Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, “EM-DAT The International Disaster Database.”.

81 EM-DAT, “Disaster Classification System,” 2023, https://doc.emdat.be/docs/data-structure-and-content/disaster-classification-system/.

82 Daniel Kaufmann, Aart Kraay, and Massimo Mastruzzi, The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues, SSRN Scholarly Paper (Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network, 2010), http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=1682130.

83 Annie Kelly, “US Human Trafficking Report under Fire as Cuba and Malaysia Are Upgraded,” The Guardian, July 27, 2015, sec. Global development, https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/jul/27/us-human-trafficking-in-persons-report-under-fire-cuba-malaysia-upgraded.

84 Harmon, Arnon, and Park, “TIP for Tat”; Kelly, “US Human Trafficking Report.”

85 David L. Cingranelli, David L. Richards, and K. Chad Clay, “The CIRI Human Rights Dataset,” 2014, Version 2014.04.14.

86 see, for example, Cho, “Modeling for Determinants of Human Trafficking”; Gurung and Clark, “The Perfect Storm.”

87 all from Kaufmann, Kraay, and Mastruzzi, “The Worldwide Governance Indicators.”.

88 Christopher J. W. Zorn, “Generalized Estimating Equation Models for Correlated Data: A Review with Applications,” American Journal of Political Science 45, no. 2 (2001): 470–90.

89 These are calculated as first differences in the simulated predicted probability of a state being a destination for trafficking, computed using the Zelig package in R. See Kosuke Imai, Gary King, and Olivia Lau, “Zelig: Everyone’s Statistical Software,” 2007, http://GKing.harvard.edu/zelig.

90 These are calculated as first differences in the simulated predicted probability of a state being a destination for trafficking, computed using the Zelig package in R. See Imai, King, and Lau, “Zelig: Everyone’s Statistical Software.”

91 Blaikie, Cannon, Davis, and Wisner, At Risk, 45.

92 Ott Toomet, “Treatment Effects with Normal Disturbances in sampleSelection Package,” 2017.

93 US Department of State, “Trafficking in Persons Report,” 2018, 74.

94 US Department of State, “Trafficking in Persons Report” (Washington, DC: US Department of State, 2008), 67–68, https://2009-2017.state.gov/j/tip/rls/tiprpt/2008/index.htm.

95 US Department of State, “Trafficking in Persons Report,” 2016, 201–2.

96 City of Houston News, “Mayor’s Office Following Up on Human Trafficking Issues Related to Recent Flooding,” September 12, 2017, https://cityofhouston.news/mayors-office-following-up-on-human-trafficking-issues-related-to-recent-flooding/.

97 UN Women, “In Post-Hurricane Haiti, Women Work Together to Rebuild,” UN Women – Headquarters, November 3, 2016, https://www.unwomen.org/en/news/stories/2016/11/in-post-hurricane-haiti-women-work-together-to-rebuild.

98 see, for example, Wood and Wright, “Responding to Catastrophe.”