Forward to democracy or back to authoritarianism? The attitudinal bases of mass support for the Russian election protests of 2011–2012

Abstract

Two UK-based political scientists present the results of an original survey they conducted in Russia soon after the presidential elections of 2012. The survey examines the interaction between mass attitudes toward the causal triggers of protest during the 2011–2012 electoral cycle and underlying political attitudes regarding the preferred alternatives to a hybrid regime (both more democratic and more authoritarian). They find that supporters of the protests were not stronger advocates of a democratic transition; on the contrary, they were more likely to support authoritarian leadership and ethno-nationalism. This finding leads to a discussion of whether one of the major constraints on elite-mass mobilization in Russia is the authoritarian direction such mobilization might entail.

Keywords:

• Russia
• hybrid regimes
• protest
• elections
• democracy
• authoritarianism

Acknowledgements

The authors thank the University of Oxford and St Antony's College, Oxford for funding this research and the reviewers of this journal for their helpful comments.

Notes

^1. The constitutional amendments introduced by Dmitry Medvedev extended the president's term from 4 to 6 years.

^2. Kasyanov's party was banned, and Kudrin did not compete in the election.

^3. In a survey conducted by the Levada Center in July 2012, 43% of respondents expressed support for the protests (in December 2011 the proportion was 44%) (“Rossiyane” 2012); research conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VTSIOM) put the proportion at 35%, but found comparable proportions of Russians opposed to the protest (“Protestnyye” 2012).