The Donbas Rift

Abstract

The “Russian Spring,” which was taken up in Donetsk and Luhansk as the struggle for the Donbas, led to the loss of the territory for both Ukraine and Russia. Although many blame Moscow for starting the war in the region, the key role was played by processes that took place within Ukraine. Violent revolution led to the government's loss of its monopoly on the use of force, polarized public opinion and produced counter-mobilization among its opponents. Oligarchs in Donbas hedged their bets trying to deal both with the new authorities and their local challengers. Members of security forces from the Donbas considered the new government illegal and supported separatism. Miscalculations by the government allowed the separatist movement room to consolidate, while the indiscriminate use of force by government troops increased support for the movement among the population. Russia exploited these developments, but did not play a determining role in them.

This article is the republished version of:

The Donbas Rift

Notes

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^10. See “Mneniia i vzgliady zhitelei Iugo-Vostoka Ukrainy.”

^11. N. Dvali. “Eks-nachal'nik Luganskoi SBU Petrulevich: terroristicheskie gruppy GRU Rossii uzhe v Kieve i zhdut signala,” Gordon.ua, July 2, 2014 (http://gordonua.com/publications/Petrulevich-Terroristicheskie-gruppy-GRU-Rossii-uzhe-v-Kyive-i-zhdut-signala-29825.html).

^12. P. Sheremet, “Anton Gerashenko Bliz'ko osib vvazhaiut'sia zniklimi bezvisti,” Ukrainskaia pravda, September 30, 2014 (www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2014/09/30/7039343/).

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^15. “Sergiu Taruta: ‘Mi namagalisia domovitis’ z Moskvoiu shche do prezidents'kikh viboriv,'” Gromads'ke TB, February 23, 2015 (www.youtube.com/watch?v = ExyZWfjHbRs).

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^17. “Slaviansk. 13.04.2014. SBU perekhvatila peregovory separatistov v Slavianske” (www.youtube.com/watch?v = duCSkkE6XX8).

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^20. “Separatisty ‘Donetskoi respubliki’ prosiatsia v Rossiiu,” Russkaia sluzhba BBC, May 12, 2014 (http://bbc.com/russian/international/2014/05/140506_donetsk_separatists_sovereignty_proclaimed).

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^22. “Strelkov: teper' ia prizyvaiu k srochnomu okazaniiu masshtabnoi voennoi pomoshchi,” Zavtra, July 16, 2014 (http://zavtra.ru/content/view/strelkov-teper-ya-prizyivayu-k-srochnomu-okazaniyu-masshtabnoj-voennoj-pomoschi/).

^23. T. Judah, “Looking for Ukraine,” New York Review of Books, June 19, 2014; M. Franchetti, “Pinned to the Ground by the Blizzard of Bullets,” Sunday Times, June 8, 2104; J. Ioffe, “My Mind-Melting Week on the Battlefields of Ukraine,” New Republic, June 16, 2014; J. Marson, “Donbas Diary: On the Frontlines in Eastern Ukraine,” Wall Street Journal, June 2, 2014; A. Luhn, “Volunteers or Paid Fighters? The Vostok Battalion Looms Large in War with Kiev,” Guardian, 2014.

^24. See S. Gates, “Recruitment and Allegiance: The Microfoundations of Rebellion,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2002. vol. 46, no. 1. pp. 111–30; M. Humphreys and J Weinstein, “Who Fights?” American Journal of Political Science, 2008, vol. 52, no. 2, pp. 436–55.

^25. M. Lichbach, “Contending Theories of Contentious Politics and the Structure-Action Problem of Social Order,” Annual Review of Political Science, 1998, no.1, pp. 401–24.

^26. R. Petersen, Understanding Ethnic Violence: Fear, Hatred, and Resentment in Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002); E. Wood, Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002); L.E. Cederman, A. Wimmer, and B. Min, “Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis,” World Politics, 2010. vol. 62, no. 1, pp. 87–119.

^27. The results of my research are based on an online poll conducted from April 30 to May 15, 2015. The survey participants were selected by a random sample of profiles on social networks from the database “Peacemaker” created with the assistance of the Security Service and the Interior Ministry of Ukraine (https://psb4ukr.org/criminal/). Invitations to participate in the survey were sent to 204 militia members, of whom 55 responded. Before the outbreak of hostilities 65.3 percent of the respondents lived in the Donetsk region, and 28.5 percent in the Luhansk region. At the time of the survey, the vast majority of participants (86.1 percent) were over forty years old.

^28. S. Kalyvas, The Logic of Violence in Civil Wars (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006).

^29. See Steven Kull, Clay Ramsay, “The Ukrainian People on the Current Crisis.” Program for Public Consultation/Kiev International Institute of Sociology March 09, 2015 (http://www.cissm.umd.edu/publications/ukrainian-people-current-crisis).

^30. “Komanduvannia ATO nazvalo kil'kist' boyovikiv,” Zahid.net, May 11, 2015 (http://zaxid.net/news/showNews.do?komanduvannya_ato_nazvalo_kilkist_boyovikiv_i_rosiyskih_viyskovih_na_donbasi&objectId = 1350936).

^31. I. Golunov and A. Artemev, “Na ch'i den'gi zhivet Donbas,” RBK, July 15, 2015 (http://daily.rbc.ru/investigation/politics/15/06/2015/5579b4b99a7947b063440210).

^32. J. Poushter. “Key Findings from Our Poll on the Russia–Ukraine Conflict,” Pew Research Center, June 10, 2015 (www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/06/10/key-findings-from-our-poll-on-the-russia-ukraine-conflict/).

^33. See “The Ukrainian People on the Current Crisis.”