Russia Outside the Security System

Abstract

This article considers the reasons for and likely trajectory of the confrontation with the West that the Russian government began abruptly in 2014. While Russia's leadership quickly recognized that its confrontational strategy in Ukraine was a strategic mistake, it could not reverse course. As it has continued to escalate the confrontation, it has become hostage to an aggressive policy that cannot end successfully for Russia.

Notes

English translation © 2015 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC, from the Russian text. This article has not been published previously. Pavel Baev is Research Director and Research Professor at the Peace Research Institute in Oslo (PRIO), Norway. He may be contacted at [email protected] Translated by Stephen D. Shenfield.

^* Korsun is the Slavic name for the ancient Greek colony of Chersonesos Taurica in Crimea.—Trans.

^* Two Russian words express the concept of dissuading an adversary from taking certain actions by threatening intolerable consequences in retaliation: sderzhivanie (restraining) is used in reference to Western strategy, ustrashenie (intimidation) in reference to Russian strategy. The two words mean essentially the same and I render both as “deterrence.”—Trans.