Leadership in BRICS: Forecasts and Reality

Abstract

In 2015, for the first time since the creation of BRICS, China demonstrated gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates lower than India, which raised the issue of leadership in this group of countries. This article assesses the probability of a change of economic leadership among the BRICS, on the basis of an analysis of diverse macroeconomic performance and comprehensive indices, which characterize economic development and participation in world financial and economic processes.

Keywords:

• BRICS
• China
• India
• economic development
• macroeconomic performance
• economic reforms
• GDP
• development banks
• yuan internationalization

Notes

1. In Tendulkar’s method, the reference point used is the national urban poverty line, while the poverty line in rural areas and urban areas differs, coming to 27 and 33 rupees per person per day, respectively.

2. In the method of the Rangaran Commission, the poverty line is 32 rupees per person per day in rural areas and 47 rupees in urban areas.