Examining Student Under- and Overperformance in College to Identify Risk of Attrition

Abstract

This study explores the value in using the difference between a student's predicted first-year grade point average (FYGPA), based on high school grade point average and SAT scores, and their observed FYGPA, namely, their FYGPA residual, as a tool in identifying those at risk for leaving an institution. Specifically, this study examined whether college students who did not perform as expected (earned higher or lower 1st-year grades) were more likely to leave their institution. Based on a large national sample, hierarchical generalized linear modeling was employed to model the relationship between a student's FYGPA residual and retention in college, taking into account both relevant student and institutional characteristics. Results showed that both under- and overperforming students were more likely to leave after their 2nd-, 3rd-, and 4th-year of college as compared to their academically similar peers who performed as expected. Recommendations for postsecondary institutions to incorporate this information as part of a cost-effective and efficient detection tool to identify students that may be at risk for not completing their degrees and to help improve institutional retention rates are provided.

Notes

¹Given the important role that finances play in college retention (e.g., Bowen & Bok, 1998; Cabrera et al., 1992), the authors planned to include household income as another student-level variable. However, a large percentage of the sample had missing income data. Specifically, an additional 44,130 students would be lost. Preliminary findings revealed correlations of similar magnitude between first-generation college-going status, another indicator of socioeconomic status, and college retention, as was evident with household income (refer to Table 1). Therefore, household income was not included in the analyses.

²The Annual Survey of Colleges is a yearly survey of colleges, universities, and vocational/technical schools by the College Board with the objective of obtaining information that is important for potential students or applicants.

³ Barron's Profiles of American Colleges is a book (and database) that includes descriptive data and statistics on 4-year colleges, primarily in the United States, based on their annual institutional survey responses. The book provides potential applicants with useful information on institutions of interest.

^aVariable was grand-mean centered.