Obsolescence in Urban Energy Infrastructures: The Influence of Scaling Laws on Consumption Forecasting

Abstract

Cities can be considered complex systems, constantly changing and adapting to new economic, social, and cultural dynamics. They exist in many forms and over a wide range of sizes. In spite of this, researchers have discovered regularities in the form of simple scaling laws that emerge when urban outputs of many types, such as income, patents, or energy consumption, are correlated with population size. This article briefly presents some facts and figures on scaling correlations in urban contexts and how this evidence can determine and influence the obsolescence of energy infrastructures. It finally suggests several strategies which could be used to ameliorate the impacts of this on the assessment of urban consumption forecasting.

Keywords:

• complex systems
• energy infrastructures
• scaling laws
• obsolescence
• forecasting

Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank Marilà Lucas-Serra for her most helpful conversations, support, and suggestions.

Note on Contributors

Ricard Horta-Bernús and Martí Rosas-Casals are associate professors at the Terrassa Engineering School (EET) at the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya—Barcelona Tech (Barcelona, Spain). Both are on the research staff at the Sustainability Measurement and Modeling Laboratory (SUMM Lab) of the same school.

Notes

1. http://www.juntadeandalucia.es/institutodeestadisticaycartografia/sima/index2.htm