Alcohol Use Growth Trajectories in Young Adolescence: Pathways and Predictors

Abstract

New analytical tools have facilitated the exploration of the trajectories of alcohol use; however, there are a limited number of studies that explore early adolescence. A sample of 5,903 youths followed from sixth through eighth grade was used to (1) examine the trajectories of alcohol use and (2) determine the degree to which common correlates predicted these trajectories. Our models provided the most support for a four trajectory group solution with nearly half of the sample (49.3%) largely abstaining, more than a quarter of the sample (29.4%) experimenting and exhibiting small increases, 15.0% initiating early and exhibiting a consistent level of low use, and a small percentage (6.3%) rapidly progressing to a heavy level of drinking across the three-year period. Perceived behavioral control was the most consistent predictor of trajectory type, but peer norms and positive attitudes toward alcohol also played a role. The implications and limitations of these findings are discussed.

KEYWORDS:

• adolescence
• alcohol
• developmental trajectories
• risk and protective factors

Acknowledgments

Funding for this study was provided by grants 2003-DR-FX-001 and 2007-JF-FX-0064 awarded to the second author by the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. Points of view or opinions in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. We are indebted to Melissa Harris for her thoughtful review of an earlier version of this manuscript.

Notes

Notes. The mean for the intercept reported in this table is the grand mean of past-year alcohol use across time periods. The predictors accounted for a substantial proportion of variability in use, as suggested by a highly significant null likelihood ratio test, χ²(33) = 3286.13, p < .0001.

⁺ p < .10. *p < .05.

Notes. The mean for the intercept reported in this table is the grand mean of past-year alcohol use across time periods. The predictors accounted for a substantial proportion of variability in use, as suggested by a highly significant null likelihood ratio test, χ²(33) = 3286.13, p < .0001.

⁺ p < .10. *p < .05.