FINDING A BALANCE BETWEEN ASSURANCES AND ABOLITION

Abstract

This article analyzes South Korean views of the April 2010 US Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) and explores the review's impact on South Korean domestic political debates on policy toward North Korea and the credibility and value of the US-South Korean alliance. Despite specific concerns raised by individual specialists in South Korea, the contents of the NPR have not sparked significant public debate there and have enjoyed acceptance by the current government in Seoul—perhaps unsurprising, given the strength of the US-South Korean alliance. The article also explores the impact of the NPR on US-South Korean nonproliferation cooperation in the context of the upcoming negotiations between Washington and Seoul on a nuclear cooperation agreement and in the context of South Korea's decision to host the Nuclear Security Summit in 2012, a meeting that among other benefits will provide the two countries a unique opportunity to strengthen their collaboration on nuclear security issues and global nonproliferation policy.

Keywords:

• South Korea
• United States
• nuclear policy
• North Korea
• deterrence

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The author wishes to acknowledge Yong Woo Kim and See-won Byun of the Center for US-Korea Policy at the Asia Foundation for their research assistance in the preparation of this article.

Notes

1. Barack Obama, “Remarks by President Barack Obama,” Prague, April 5, 2009, <www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-By-President-Barack-Obama-In-Prague-As-Delivered/>. See also Department of Defense, “Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report,” February 2010, <www.defense.gov/bmdr/docs/BMDR%20as%20of%2026JAN10%200630_for%20web.pdf>.

2. The March 26, 2010 sinking of the Cheonan, a South Korean warship, in waters close to North Korea sparked an international investigation, which announced on May 20, 2010 its conclusion that the ship had been sunk by a North Korean torpedo, an act that the UN Security Council condemned in a July 10 Presidential Statement. The incident revealed underlying differences between China, South Korea, and the United States

3. Obama, “Remarks by President Barack Obama,” April 5, 2009.

4. Na Jeong-ju, “Obama Hits NK's Rocket Launch,” Korea Times, April 5, 2009; Lee Chi-dong, “N. Korea's Rocket Launch Rattles Regional Security Despite Failure,” Yonhap News Agency, April 5, 2009.

5. Ha Youngsun, “North Korea Stands in the Way of a “Nuclear Weapons Free World,” Chosun Ilbo (in Korean), April 15, 2010, <news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/04/15/2010041502381.html>; Lee Suk-soo, “Paving a Road for Nuclear Deterrence,” JoongAng Daily, April 13, 2010, <joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2919089>.

6. Author notes, “US-ROK Strategic Dialogue,” conference at which a small group of US and South Korean experts and officials met to discuss strategic issues, organized by the Pacific Forum CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) and cosponsored by the US Defense Threat Reduction Agency, Maui, Hawaii, April 29–30, 2010.

7. “Joint Vision for the Alliance of the United States of America and the Republic of Korea,” White House, June 16, 2009, <www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Joint-vision-for-the-alliance-of-the-United-States-of-America-and-the-Republic-of-Korea/>.

8. Kang Hyun-kyung, “Doves Say S.Korea, US Corner NK,” Korea Times, June 19, 2009, <koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2009/06/113_47126.html>.

9. Kang Hyun-kyung, “Doves Say S.Korea, US Corner NK,” Korea Times, June 19, 2009, <koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2009/06/113_47126.html>.

10. Kim Chi-yong, ”‘Chawijeok Haekoekseo’ ronui Chungdangsung Banjeunghan Weosington Hoedam Kunsa Daekyul Buch'ukineun Obama-Lee Myung Bak ‘Kongdong Bijyon’” [Washington talks that proved legitimacy of “nuclear deterrent for self-defense,”—Obama-Lee Myung-bak “Joint Vision” that instigates military confrontation], Chosun Sinbo, June 20, 2009.

11. Tae-woo Kim, “ROK-US Defense Cooperation Against the North Korean Nuclear Threat: Strengthening Extended Deterrence,” in Jung-Ho Bae and Abraham Denmark, eds., The US-ROK Alliance Relations for the 21 ^st Century (Seoul: Korea Institute for National Unification, 2009), pp. 181–220.

12. Department of Defense, “Nuclear Posture Review Report,” April 6, 2010, p. viii, <www.defense.gov/npr/docs/2010%20Nuclear%20Posture%20Review%20Report.pdf>.

13. Author's interview with South Korean Embassy official, Washington, DC, August 30, 2010.

14. Author's written communication with South Korean professor at the National Defense University, August 10, 2010. Name withheld by request.

15. Author notes, “US-ROK Strategic Dialogue.”

16. Department of Defense, “DOD News Briefing with Secretary Gates and Republic of Korea Defense Minister Kim,” October 8, 2010, <www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4696>.

17. Brad Glosserman, “The Cheonan's Long Shadow: The Second US-ROK Strategic Dialogue,” Issues and Insights 10 (August 2010), p. 11.

18. Author's interview with professor at South Korea's National Defense University, Tokyo, July 27, 2010. Name withheld by request.

19. Sang-hyeon Lee, “The U.S. ‘Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) 2010’ and the Nuclear Security Summit,” EAI Commentary, No. 8, June 11, 2010, <eai.or.kr/data/bbs/eng_report/2010070512202340.pdf>.

20. Tae-woo Kim, “ROK-US Defense Cooperation Against the North Korean Nuclear Threat”; and Tae-woo Kim, “Security, Deterrence, and Extended Deterrence in East Asia: A South Korean Perspective,” unpublished paper presented at CSIS–Asian Institute for Policy Studies–Japan Institute of International Affairs Trilateral Conference, September 7–8, 2010, Tokyo, Japan.

21. Christine Kim, “Americans Keen on Korea Alliance,” JoongAng Daily, October 23, 2010, <joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2927486>.

22. Author's interview with Korean Institute for Defense Analysis (KIDA) specialist, name withheld by request, Seoul, August 28, 2010.

23. Glosserman, “The Cheonan's Long Shadow.”

24. Lee, “The U.S. ‘Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) 2010’ and the Nuclear Security Summit.”

25. Author's notes, “US-ROK Strategic Dialogue.”

26. Author's interview with a South Korean defense analyst, Washington, DC, June 28, 2010.

27. Author's interview with South Korean National Defense University professor whose remarks were not for attribution, Tokyo, August 10, 2010.

28. Author's e-mail correspondence with South Korean National Defense University professor whose remarks were not for attribution, Tokyo, August 10, 2010.

29. Author's interview with KIDA specialist, name withheld by request, Seoul, August 28, 2010.

30. Kim, “Security, Deterrence, and Extended Deterrence in East Asia.”

31. Author's conversations with South Korean experts in conjunction with a Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute workshop on spent fuel management and nonproliferation, Daejon, South Korea, July 21–23, 2010.

32. Bong-geun Jun, “US-ROK Nuclear Energy Cooperation from Tutelage to Partnership: Nonproliferation Factor,” paper presented at US-South Korea Workshop on Nuclear Energy and Nonproliferation, co-hosted by the Center for US-Korea Policy and Henry L. Stimson Center in collaboration with the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Washington, DC, <www.asiafoundation.org/publications/pdf/690>; and Fred McGoldrick, “New US-ROK Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation Agreement,” Center for US-Korea Policy, January 2010, <www.asiafoundation.org/publications/pdf/660>.

33. Cheon Seong-whun, “The ROK-US Military Alliance: Transformation and Change,” paper presented at the Marine Corps University Conference on Confronting Security Challenges on the Korean Peninsula, September 1, 2010, unpublished draft, p. 25.

34. Hyun-wook Kim, “Barack Obama's Nuclear Policy: Based on the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review,” IFANS Brief, April 19, 2010.

35. Lee, “The U.S. ‘Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) 2010’ and the Nuclear Security Summit.”

36. Author's written communication with South Korean university professor, name withheld by request, September 1, 2010.

37. Author's interview with South Korean opposition national assemblyman, name withheld by request, Seoul, August 14, 2010.

38. Paik Haksoon, “North Korea in the International Relations of East Asia,” paper presented at Conference on Korea and East Asia, University of Vienna, June 4–5, 2010.

39. Paik Haksoon, “An Analysis of the North Korean View on Post-Cheonan Regional Security,” presentation given at Asan Institute for Policy Studies Conference on Post-Cheonan Regional Security, August 13, 2010, and Chung-in Moon, “The Six Party Talks and Implications for Peninsular and Regional Peace and Security,” paper presented at Conference on Korea and East Asia, University of Vienna, June 4–5, 2010.

40. Cheon, “The ROK-US Military Alliance,” p. 18.

41. Lee, “The U.S. ‘Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) 2010’ and the Nuclear Security Summit.”

42. Author's interview with KIDA analysts, names withheld by request, Seoul, August 28, 2010.

43. Author's written communication with South Korean professor at the National Defense University, August 10, 2010. Name withheld by request.

44. Author's interview with Ministry of National Defense official, Seoul, August 28, 2010.

45. Kim, “Security, Deterrence, and Extended Deterrence in East Asia.”

46. Korean participant, “US-ROK Strategic Dialogue,” Maui, April 2010.

47. Author's private communication with NDU professor, Tokyo, August, 10, 2010.

48. Author's interview with Korean Institute for Defense Analysis (KIDA) specialist, name withheld by request, Seoul, August 28, 2010.

49. Author notes, “US-ROK Strategic Dialogue”; and author's notes, “US-ROK Workshop on Nuclear Fuel Cycles and Nonproliferation,” Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute and Henry Stimson Center, Daejeon, South Korea, July 21–22, 2010.

50. Bong-geun Jun, “Results and Tasks of the Nuclear Security Summit,” IFANS Brief, May 18, 2010.

51. Author's written communication with South Korean professor at the National Defense University, August 10, 2010. Name withheld by request.

52. Author's conversation with South Korean Embassy representative, Vienna, June 2010.

53. Author's notes, “US-ROK Strategic Dialogue.”

54. “Gist of Joint Communique of S. Korea-US Annual Defense Talks,” North Korea Newsletter No. 127, Yonhap News Agency, October 14, 2010, <english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2010/10/13/42/0401000000AEN20101013003400325F.HTML>; “Joint Communiqué,” Forty-second US-ROK Security Consultative Meeting, October 8, 2010,<www.defense.gov/news/d20101008usrok.pdf>.

55. Scott Snyder and Joyce Lee, “Infusing Commitment With Credibility: The Role of Security Assurances in Cementing the US-ROK Alliance,” unpublished paper presented at Monterey Institute for International Studies Security Assurances Workshop, Boulder, Colorado, August 2009.

56. Victor D. Cha, “What Do They Really Want? Obama's North Korea Conundrum,” Washington Quarterly 32 (2009), pp. 119–38.