EXPLORING THE NEXT GENERATION OF PROLIFERATORS

Abstract

This theoretical analysis explores which countries might constitute the next generation of nuclear proliferators, using Venezuela as a case study of one of the possible next nuclear weapon states. Three alternative theoretical frameworks or models are used to analyze the preconditions that might or might not drive Venezuela to pursue nuclear weapons in the near future. This study finds that there is little evidence to support the alarmist claims surrounding a future Venezuelan nuclear weapons program. These findings are important for both devising an accurate US national security strategy for identifying and combating the next generation of proliferators and also for implementing effective policies for the future of US-Latin American relations.

Keywords:

• Proliferation
• Venezuela
• Iran
• Latin America

Notes

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3. Gregory Schulte, “Stopping Proliferation Before It Starts: How to Prevent the Next Nuclear Wave,” Foreign Affairs 89 (July/Aug 2010), pp. 85–95.

4. Gregory Schulte, “Stopping Proliferation Before It Starts: How to Prevent the Next Nuclear Wave,” Foreign Affairs 89 (July/Aug 2010), 88.

5. Josef Joffe and James W. Davis, “Less Than Zero: Bursting the New Disarmament Bubble,” Foreign Affairs 90 (January/February 2011), pp. 9–10.

6. See, for example, Julio César Pineda, “El laberinto nuclear de Chávez” [The nuclear labyrinth of Chávez], El Universal, October 11, 2005, <www.eluniversal.com/2005/10/11/eco_art_eco2.shtml>.

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24. Scott Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?: Three Models in Search of a Bomb” International Security 21 (Winter 1996/97), p. 54.

25. Scott Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?: Three Models in Search of a Bomb” International Security 21 (Winter 1996/97), p. 85.

26. Scott Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?: Three Models in Search of a Bomb” International Security 21 (Winter 1996/97), p. 54.

27. Scott Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?: Three Models in Search of a Bomb” International Security 21 (Winter 1996/97), p. 57.

28. Harold Trinkunas, “Assessing Potential Nuclear Proliferation Networks in Latin America: 2006–2016,” Nonproliferation Review 13 (November 2006), pp. 620–21.

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36. Carlos A. Romero and Javier Corrales, “Relations between the United States and Venezuela, 2001–2009: A Bridge in Need of Repairs,” in Jorge I. Dominguez and Rafael Fernandez de Castro, eds., Contemporary U.S.-Latin American Relations: Cooperation or Conflict in the 21 ^st Century (New York, NY: Routledge Press, 2010), p. 222.

37. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Importer/Exporter TIV Tables, <http://armstrade.sipri.org/arms_trade/values.php>.

38. Juan Forero, “Venezuela Acquires 1,800 Antiaircraft Missiles from Russia,” Washington Post, December 11, 2010, <www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/11/AR2010121103148.html>.

39. “U.S.-Colombia Plan Could Fuel Arms Purchases.”

40. “U.S.-Colombia Plan Could Fuel Arms Purchases.”

41. Robert Munks, “Could war erupt in arms-spree LatAm?” BBC News, September 15, 2009, <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8256686.stm>.

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43. Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?,” p. 63.

44. Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?,”, pp. 63–64.

45. Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?,”, p. 64.

46. Trinkunas, “Assessing Potential Nuclear Proliferation Networks in Latin America: 2006–2016,” p. 623.

47. Lavoy, “Nuclear Proliferation Over the Next Decade,” pp. 437–38.

48. Trinkunas, “Assessing Potential Nuclear Proliferation Networks in Latin America: 2006–2016,” p. 623.

49. Trinkunas, “Assessing Potential Nuclear Proliferation Networks in Latin America: 2006–2016,” p. 623.

50. See Guillermo O'Donnell, “Delegative Democracy,” Journal of Democracy 5 (January 1994), pp. 55–69.

51. Mark Sullivan, “Venezuela: Political Conditions and U.S. Policy,” Congressional Research Service, July 28, 2009, p. 20.

52. Economist, “A Coup Against the Constitution,” December 28, 2010, <www.economist.com/node/17796581>.

53. William Neuman, “Chavez Calls for Unity After Victory in Venezuela,” New York Times, October 8, 2012, <www.nytimes.com/2012/10/09/world/americas/hugo-chavez-calls-for-unity-after-victory-in-venezuela.html>.

54. Economist, “Venezuelan Socialism: Food Fight,” June 10, 2010, <www.economist.com/node/17796581>.

55. Simon Romero and Maria Eugenia Diaz, “A 45-Story Walkup Beckons the Desperate,” New York Times, February 28, 2011, <www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/world/americas/01venezuela.html>.

56. Christopher Toothaker, “Hugo Chavez Defends State Takeovers of Apartments,” Associated Press, November 7, 2010.

57. Simon Romero, “Venezuela, More Deadly Than Iraq, Wonders Why,” New York Times, August 22, 2010, < www.nytimes.com/2010/08/23/world/americas/23venez.html>.

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63. Economist, “Stuck With Him.”

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71. Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?” p. 73. The original phrase used by Sagan, now largely outmoded, is “rogue state.”

72. Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?”, p. 74.

73. Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?”, p. 76.

74. Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?”, p. 81.

75. Gerami and Squassoni, “Venezuela: A Nuclear Profile.”

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84. Trinkunas, “Assessing Potential Nuclear Proliferation Networks in Latin America: 2006–2016,” p. 621.

85. Casas-Zamora, “An Arms Race in South America?”

86. Trinkunas, “Assessing Potential Nuclear Proliferation Networks in Latin America: 2006–2016,” p. 623.

87. Christopher Sabatini, “The Revolution Will Not Be Marginalized.”

88. Robert A. Pastor, Exiting the Whirlpool: U.S. Foreign Policy toward Latin America and the Caribbean, (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 2001), p. 33. Abraham Lowenthal made a similar argument in Partners in Conflict: The United States and Latin America, (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins Press, 1987).

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