The Odyssey of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

Abstract

This study examines the failures of the William J. Clinton and Barack Obama administrations to secure ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). It applies an integrated analytical framework for assessing treaty ratification that builds upon previous research in order to understand why the Clinton administration failed to achieve CTBT ratification in 1999 and why the Obama administration has so far failed to advance the treaty in the Senate. The study concludes that CTBT ratification, despite Obama administration pledges of support, remains highly unlikely. Finally, the study analyzes the common domestic political factors present in both cases and suggests areas for further research.

KEYWORDS:

• Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty
• nuclear weapons
• arms control
• United States
• Congress
• William J. Clinton
• Barack Obama

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

An earlier version of this article was presented at the ISAC-ISSS Joint Annual Conference in Monterey, California, in October 2009.

Notes

1. 106th Cong., 1st sess., Congressional Record vol. 145 (October 13, 1999), pp. S12523, S12548.

2. Craig Cerniello, “Clinton Sends Treaty to Senate: Hearing Set to Begin in October,” Arms Control Today, September 1997, <http://legacy.armscontrol.org/act/1997_09/ctbsept.asp>.

3. Vertical proliferation refers to an existing nuclear weapon state improving the quantity or quality of its nuclear arsenal. Horizontal proliferation refers to a non-nuclear weapon state acquiring a nuclear weapon capability.

4. William J. Clinton, “Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress on the State of the Union,” January 19, 1999, <www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=57577>.

5. US Senate, “Treaties,” <www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/briefing/Treaties.htm#5>.

6. Barack Obama, “Remarks of President Barack Obama,” Prague, April 5, 2009, <www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-by-President-Barack-Obama-In-Prague-As-Delivered/>.

7. Michael Krepon and Dan Caldwell, The Politics of Arms Control Ratification, (New York: St. Martin's Press and the Henry L. Stimson Center, 1991); John V. Parachini, “U.S. Senate Ratification of the CWC: Lessons for the CTBT,” Nonproliferation Review 5 (Fall 1997), pp. 1–14.

8. Krepon and Caldwell, The Politics of Arms Control Ratification.

9. Krepon and Caldwell, The Politics of Arms Control Ratification.

10. Krepon and Caldwell, The Politics of Arms Control Ratification.

11. Parachini, “U.S. Senate Ratification of the CWC.”

12. According to Article XIV of the CTBT, the treaty enters into force “180 days after the 44 states listed in Annex 2 to the Treaty have all ratified.”

13. Sean Giovanello, “The Domestic Politics of Arms Control Treaty Ratification: The Case of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” Global Security Studies 4 (Spring 2013), pp. 1–23; C. James DeLaet and James M. Scott, “Treaty-Making and Partisan Politics: Arms Control and the U.S. Senate, 1960–2001,” Foreign Policy Analysis 2 (2006), pp. 177–200.

14. Giovanello, “The Domestic Politics of Arms Control Treaty Ratification,” p. 6.

15. Terry L Deibel. “The Death of a Treaty,” Foreign Affairs 81 (September/October 2002), pp 142–61; Giovanello, “The Domestic Politics of Arms Control Treaty Ratification,” p. 8.

16. Giovanello, “The Domestic Politics of Arms Control Treaty Ratification,” p. 9.

17. Giovanello, “The Domestic Politics of Arms Control Treaty Ratification,” p. 10; Final Review of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (Treaty Doc. 105–28) (Washington, DC, 1999), <www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-106shrg61364/html/CHRG-106shrg61364.htm>.

18. Deibel, “The Death of a Treaty,” p. 154; Giovanello, “The Domestic Politics of Arms Control Treaty Ratification,” p. 10.

19. Deibel, “The Death of a Treaty,” p. 154; Giovanello, “The Domestic Politics of Arms Control Treaty Ratification,” p. 12.

20. Deibel, “The Death of a Treaty,” p. 154; Giovanello, “The Domestic Politics of Arms Control Treaty Ratification,” p. 12.

21. Giovanello, “The Domestic Politics of Arms Control Treaty Ratification,” p. 14.

22. 105th Cong., 2nd sess., Congressional Record vol. 144 (May 12, 1998), p. S4680.

23. Jesse Helms, “Statement on India's Nuclear Tests,” May 13, 1998 <www.fas.org/spp/starwars/congress/1998_h/98051302_npo.html>.

24. Quoted in Craig Cerniello, “South Asian Nuclear Tests Cloud Prospect for CTBT Ratification,” Arms Control Today, May 1998, <www.armscontrol.org/print/340>.

25. Bill Clinton, My Life Vol. II: The Presidential Years (New York: Vintage, 2005), p. 425.

26. Giovanello, “The Domestic Politics of Arms Control Treaty Ratification,” p. 14.

27. Deibel, “The Death of a Treaty,” pp. 142–61; Terry L. Deibel, “Inside the Water's Edge: The Senate Votes on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” Pew Case Studies in International Affairs, Case 263, Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Georgetown University, 2003; C. Lawrence Evans and Walter J. Oleszek, “A Tale of Two Treaties: The Practical Politics of Treaty Ratification in the U.S. Senate,” in Colton C. Campbell, Nicol C. Rae, and John F. Stack, Jr., eds., Congress and the Politics of Foreign Policy (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2003), pp. 90–111; Christopher M. Jones, “Rejection of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: The Politics of Ratification,” in Ralph G. Carter, ed., Contemporary Cases in U.S. Foreign Policy: From Trade to Terrorism (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2002), pp. 160–95; Christopher M. Jones, “Rejection of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: The Politics of Ratification,” in Ralph G. Carter, ed., Contemporary Cases in U.S. Foreign Policy: From Trade to Terrorism, 2nd ed. (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2005), pp. 181–216.

28. Richard Lugar, “Lugar Opposes Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” Press Release, October 7, 1999, <www.fas.org/nuke/control/ctbt/text/100799lugar.htm>.

29. Hearing before the Committee on Foreign Relations, “Final Review of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” 106th Cong., 1st sess., October 7, 1999, pp. 52–63, <www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-106shrg61364/html/CHRG-106shrg61364.htm>.

30. Jones, “Rejection of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” pp. 208–09.

31. William J. Clinton, “Statement of the President,” Washington, DC, October 13, 1999, <http://1997-2001.state.gov/www/global/arms/statements/clinton/19991013.html>; Trent Lott, “Response to President Clinton's Remarks,” Federal News Service transcript, October 14, 1999.

32. Jones, “Rejection of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” pp. 160–195; Jones 2005, pp. 181–216.

33. Kaegan McGrath, “Verifiability, Reliability, and National Security,” Nonproliferation Review 16 (2009), pp. 407–33.

34. William J. Clinton, “Letter of Transmittal to the Senate of the United States,” September 22, 1997, <www.fas.org/nuke/control/ctbt/text/ltr_tran.htm>.

35. Jones, “Rejection of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” pp. 165–66.

36. William J. Clinton, “Text of President Clinton's 1998 State of the Union Address,” <www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/states/docs/sou98.htm>.

37. Helen Dewar and Roberto Suro, “Senate Conservatives to Demand Vote on Test Ban Treaty,” Washington Post, October 7, 1999, p. A9; Charles Babington, “Clinton Campaigns for Senate Passage of Test Ban Treaty,” Washington Post, October 5, 1999, p. A5.

38. C-SPAN 2000 Survey of Presidential Leadership, <www.americanpresidents.org/survey/>.

39. Jones, “Rejection of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” pp. 194–95.

40. Jones, “Rejection of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,”, p. 195.

41. Helen Dewar and Eric Pianin, “This Time, Politics Beyond the Water's Edge,” Washington Post, December 17, 1998, p. A1.

42. James M. Inhofe, “Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty,” Senate floor statement, October 8, 1999, <www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CREC-1999-10-08/pdf/CREC-1999-10-08-pt1-PgS12257-6.pdf>; Eric Schmitt, “Defeat of the Treaty: The G.O.P.; Why Clinton Plea on Pact Left Lott Unmoved,” New York Times, October 15, 1999, <www.nytimes.com/1999/10/15/world/defeat-of-a-treaty-the-gop-why-clinton-plea-on-pact-left-lott-unmoved.html>.

43. Glen S. Krutz and Jeffrey S. Peake, Treaty Politics and the Rise of Executive Agreements: International Commitments in a System of Shared Powers (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan, 2009) p. 133.

44. Jones, “Rejection of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” p. 185.

45. C-SPAN 2000 Survey of Presidential Leadership.

46. Jones, “Rejection of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” pp. 161–68.

47. Evans and Oleszek, “A Tale of Two Treaties,” p. 102.

48. Lugar, “Lugar Opposes Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.”

49. Giovanello, “The Domestic Politics of Arms Control Treaty Ratification,” pp. 18–19.

50. Stephen I. Schwartz, “Out Maneuvered, Outgunned, and Out of View,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 2000, pp. 25–31.

51. Jones, “Rejection of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” pp. 181–82.

52. Giovanello, “The Domestic Politics of Arms Control Treaty Ratification,” p. 19; Adam Clymer, “Angry Democrats and G.O.P. Trade Blame on Test Ban Pact,” New York Times, October 16, 1999, <www.nytimes.com/1999/10/16/world/angry-democrats-and-gop-trade-blame-on-test-ban-pact.html>.

53. Quoted in Schmitt, “Defeat of the Treaty.”

54. Giovanello, “The Domestic Politics of Arms Control Treaty Ratification,” p. 15.

55. Giovanello, “The Domestic Politics of Arms Control Treaty Ratification,” p. 15; Madeleine Albright, Madam Secretary (New York: HarperCollins, 2003), p. 302.

56. Gallup Organization, “Presidential Job Approval Ratings,” October 8–10, 1999, <www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/roper/presidential/webroot/presidential_rating_detail.cfm?allRate=True&presidentName=Clinton>.

57. Gary Langer, “Poll: Good Job by the Bad-Boy President,” January 17, 2001, <a.abcnews.com/sections/politics/DailyNews/poll_clintonlegacy010117.html>.

58. Giovanello, “The Domestic Politics of Arms Control Treaty Ratification,” p. 16.

59. 106th Cong., 1st sess., Congressional Record vol. 145, September 8, 1999, p. S10540. <www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CREC-1999-09-08/pdf/CREC-1999-09-08-pt1-PgS10540-2.odf>.

60. Evans and Oleszek, “A Tale of Two Treaties,” p. 104

61. Evans and Oleszek, “A Tale of Two Treaties,”, p. 101.

62. Evans and Oleszek, “A Tale of Two Treaties,”, p. 104.

63. Evans and Oleszek, “A Tale of Two Treaties,”, p. 104.

64. Jones, “Rejection of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” pp. 179–80.

65. Sumina Chatterjee, “Politics Slashing Noisily Beyond the Water's Edge,” CQ Daily Monitor, October 2, 1999, p. 5; Helen Dewar, “Democrats Push Delay on Treaty,” Washington Post, October 13, 1999, p. A4; DeLaet and Scott, “Treaty-Making and Partisan Politics,” pp. 177–200; Evans and Oleszek, “A Tale of Two Treaties,” p. 101.

66. Giovanello, “The Domestic Politics of Arms Control Treaty Ratification,” p. 16; Adam Nagourney, “First Lady Denounces Treaty Vote and G.O.P.,” New York Times, October 16, 1999, <www.nytimes.com/1999/10/16/nyregion/first-lady-denounces-treaty-vote-and-gop.html>.

67. DeLaet and Scott, “Treaty-Making and Partisan Politics,” p. 1; Congressional Quarterly, Congressional Quarterly Almanac 1999: 106th Congress, First Session (Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly, Inc., 2000), pp. 9–45.

68. Evans and Oleszek, “A Tale of Two Treaties,” p. 104.

69. Giovanello, “The Domestic Politics of Arms Control Treaty Ratification,” p. 6.

70. Daryl Kimball, “Holding the CTBT Hostage in the Senate: The ‘Stealth’ Strategy of Helms and Lott,” Arms Control Today, June/July 1998, <www.armscontrol.org/act/1998_06-07/kimjj98>.

71. Cerniello, “Clinton Sends Treaty to Senate: Hearing Set to Begin in October,” <www.armscontrol.org/act/1997_09/ctbsept>; “Senate Rejects Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty; Clinton Vows to Continue Moratorium,” <www.armscontrol.org/act/1999_09-10/ctbso99>; Schwartz, “Out Maneuvered, Outgunned, and Out of View,” p. 25; Jones, “Rejection of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” pp. 170–71; Kimball, “Holding the CTBT Hostage in the Senate.”

72. See Jones, “Rejection of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” pp. 179–81, and pp. 184–86.

73. PBS, “Treaty Trouble,” NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, transcript, October 6, 1999.

74. Kimball, “Holding the CTBT Hostage in the Senate.”

75. Roberto Suro and Helen Dewar, “Test Ban Treaty May Be Set Aside; Senate Moving to Avoid Roll Call, Push Treaty to Next Congress,” Washington Post, October 6, 1999, p. A1; Giovanello, “The Domestic Politics of Arms Control Treaty Ratification,” p. 11.

76. Schwartz, “Out Maneuvered, Outgunned, and Out of View,” p. 29.

77. See Jones, “Rejection of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,” pp. 178–81, 183–84, 186; Evans and Oleszek, “A Tale of Two Treaties,” pp. 103–05.

78. Jonathan Medalia, “Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: Background and Current Developments,” Congressional Research Service, June 10, 2013, <www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL33548.pdf>; Mary Beth Sheridan and William Branigin, “Senate Ratifies New U.S.-Russia Nuclear Weapons Treaty,”Washington Post, December 22, 2010, <www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/21/AR2010122104371.html>.

79. Mary Beth Sheridan, “Arms Treaty's Approval is Another White House Save,” Washington Post, December 23, 2010, p. A1.

80. Medalia, “Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.”

81. Mary Beth Sheridan and William Branigin, “Senate Ratifies New U.S.-Russia Nuclear Weapons Treaty”; Sheridan, “Arms Treaty's Approval is Another White House Save.”

82. Chris Schneidmiller, “National Academies Report is ‘Grist’ for CTBT Debate: Gottemoeller,” Global Security Newswire, June 15, 2012, <www.nti.org/gsn/article/national-academies-report-grist-ctbt-debate-gottemoeller/>.

83. Martin Matishak, “Obama Administration Readying to Make Case for Test Ban Treaty,” Global Security Newswire, May 11, 2011, <www.nti.org/gsn/article/obama-administration-readying-to-make-case-for-test-ban-treaty/>.

84. Douglas Guarino, “Shaheen Advises Against Rushing Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in U.S. Senate,” Global Security Newswire, July 16, 2013, <www.nti.org/gsn/article/shaheen-advises-against-rushing-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-us-senate/>.

85. Douglas Guarino, “Republicans Threaten to Block Obama Nuclear Arms Reductions,” Global Security Newswire, February 25, 2013, <www.nti.org/gsn/article/republicans-threaten-block-obama-nuclear-arms-reductions/>.

86. Jon Kyl, “The New Start Treaty: Time for a Careful Look,” July 8, 2010, <http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748704293604575343360850107760> .

87. Guarino, “Republicans Threaten to Block Obama Nuclear Arms Reductions.”

88. Schneidmiller, “National Academies Report is ‘Grist’ for CTBT Debate.”

89. Matishak, “Obama Administration Readying to Make Case for Test Ban Treaty.”

90. Guarino, “Shaheen Advises Against Rushing Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in U.S. Senate.”

91. Guarino, “Shaheen Advises Against Rushing Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in U.S. Senate.”

92. Josh Rogin, “Push For Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Expected Soon,” The Cable blog, Foreign Policy, <http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/05/10/push_for_nuclear_test_ban_treaty_ratification_starting_soon>.

93. Guarino, “Shaheen Advises Against Rushing Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in U.S. Senate.”