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ABSTRACT
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty's verification regime is arguably one of the most effective and efficient systems of arms-control and disarmament monitoring in operation today. The science and technology underpinning the system have been developed over several decades. This article goes through the treaty's international monitoring system and pays particular attention to its waveform-monitoring techniques. It then considers the concept of data fusion, before describing the agreement's on-site-inspection mechanism. It briefly discusses how alleged noncompliance is likely to be resolved. It concludes by arguing that the treaty's verification regime is expected to make cheating costly, which enhances the treaty's deterrent effect.
Notes
1 Lassina Zerbo, “Evening keynote,” EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Conference, November 4, 2016, <www.iiss.org/en/events/eu-conference/sections/eu-conference-2016-c74a/keynote-address-e4ff/lassina-zerbo-2ce>.
2 Andreas Persbo and Lisa Leitenbauer, “An Eye on the World: Verifying the Comprehensive Test Ban,” Disarmament Forum, No. 2 (2006), <www.peacepalacelibrary.nl/ebooks/files/UNIDIR_pdf-art2493.pdf>.
3 UN General Assembly, “Report of the Conference of Experts to Study the Possibility of Detecting Violations of a Possible Agreement on the Suspension of Nuclear Tests,” A/3897, August 28, 1958, <https://disarmament-library.un.org/UNODA/Library.nsf/3722912af3647c9385256bc800504da4/829b2c798e0b8d2d85256e4400662ea0/$FILE/A-3897.pdf>.
4 Jaap Ramaker, Jenifer Mackby, Peter D. Marshall, and Robert Geil, The Final Test: A History of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban-Treaty Negotiations (Vienna: CTBTO, 2003), pp. 5–7.
5 Ibid., p. 12.
6 Tibor Tóth, “Role of the CTBT in Regional and Global Security,” presentation at the CTBTO Cross-Regional Workshop, Turkey, Istanbul, November 15, 2011, <www.ctbto.org/fileadmin/user_upload/statements/ES_Address_Istanbul_Workshop_Opening_15-Nov-2011.pdf>.
7 See, in this volume, Paul G. Richards, “The history and outlook for seismic monitoring of nuclear explosions in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty,” Nonproliferation Review 23 (June/July 2016), pp. 287–300.
8 US Geological Survey, “An Assessment of Seismic Monitoring in the United States: Requirement for an Advanced National Seismic System,” USGS Circular 1188, US Department of the Interior (2000), p. 11.
9 US Geological Survey, “Earthquake Glossary - P Wave,” US Department of the Interior, n.d., <earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/glossary/?term=Pwave>.
10 Kwang-Hyun Cho, “Discriminating between Explosions and Earthquakes,” Applied Geophysics 11 (2014), p. 429.
11 “Seismic Monitoring,” CTBTO Preparatory Commission, January 6, 2012, <http://ctbto.org/verification-regime/monitoring-technologies-how-they-work/seismic-monitoring>.
12 National Academy of Science (NAS), The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty: Technical Issues for the United States, (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2012), p. 51.
13 An earlier NAS study drew data from thirty-seven operating stations in 2007. Tormod Kvaerna and Frode Ringdal, “Detection Capability of the Seismic Network of the International Monitoring System for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 103 (April 2013), p. 769.
14 To understand how body wave magnitude relates to yield, the author used the equation reproduced on p. 46 in the NAS 2012 report:
inputting the data from Frode Ringdal and Tormod Kvaerna, “Continuous seismic threshold monitoring,” Geophysical Journal International 111 (1992), pp. 505–14.
15 Hein Haak and Läslo Evers, “Infrasound as a tool for CTBT verification,” Verification Yearbook (2002), p. 216.
16 Ibid., p. 217.
17 NAS, The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, p. 8.
18 Alexis Le Pichon, Elisabeth Blanc, and Alain Hauchecorne, Infrasound Monitoring for Atmospheric Studies (Dordrecht: Springer, 2010) pp. 24, 29.
19 Ibid., p. 32.
20 NAS, The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, p. 63.
21 Le Pichon, Blanc, and Hauchecorne, Infrasound Monitoring, p. 55.
22 Ibid., p. 71.
23 “Hydroacoustic Monitoring,” CTBTO Preparatory Commission, n.d., <http://ctbto.org/verification-regime/monitoring-technologies-how-they-work/hydroacoustic-monitoring>.
24 M. Eneva, J.L. Stevens, B.D. Khristoforov, J. Murphy, and V.V. Adushkin, “Analysis of Russian Hydroacoustic Data for CTBT Monitoring,” Pure and Applied Geophysics 158 (2001), p. 606.
25 Ibid.
26 “NOAA Ocean Explorer: Sounds in the Sea 2001: Diagram of How Sound Travels Underwater,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, September 2001, <http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/sound01/background/acoustics/media/sofar.html>.
27 J. Hanson, R. Le Bras, P. Dysart, D. Brumbaugh, A. Gault, and J. Guern, “Operational Processing of Hydroacoustics at the Prototype International Data Center,” Pure and Applied Geophysics 158 (2001), p. 430.
28 Ibid., p. 429.
29 Ibid., p. 432.
30 Ibid., p. 426.
31 Ibid.
32 NAS, The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, p. 60.
33 Eneva, Stevens, Khristoforov, Murphy, and Adushkin, “Analysis of Russian Hydroacoustic Data for CTBT Monitoring,” p. 606.
34 Ibid., p. 607.
35 “Radionuclide Monitoring,” CTBTO Preparatory Commission, March 5, 2012, <www.ctbto.org/verification-regime/monitoring-technologies-how-they-work/radionuclide-monitoring/>.
36 NAS, The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, p. 53.
37 A. Ringbom, A. Axelsson, M. Aldener, M. Auer, T.W. Bowyer, T. Fritioff, I. Hoffman, K. Khrustalev, M. Nikkinen, V. Popov, Y. Popov, K. Ungar, and G. Wotawa, “Radioxenon Detections in the CTBT International Monitoring System Likely Related to the Announced Nuclear Test in North Korea on February 12, 2013,” Journal of Environmental Radioactivity 128 (2014), p. 48.
38 Ibid.
39 Ringbom et al., “Radioxenon Detections,” p. 63.
40 CTBTO, “Radionuclide Monitoring.”
41 NAS, The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, p. 57
42 Ibid., p. 58.
43 “Page 1 - History of IDC,” CTBTO Preparatory Commission, n.d., <www.ctbto.org/verification-regime/the-international-data-centre/history-of-theinternational-data-centre/page-1-history-of-idc>.
44 The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), September 1996, Article IV, section C, paragraph 29.
45 Ibid., Article IV, section D, paragraph 35.
46 Ibid., Article IV, section D, paragraph 38.
47 Ibid., Article IV, section D, paragraph 46.
48 Ibid., Article IV, section D, paragraph 47.
49 Ibid., Article IV, section D, paragraph 49.
50 Edward Ifft, “On-site Inspections under the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT): Technical Considerations,” Occasional Paper 2, VERTIC, December 2009, <www.vertic.org/media/assets/Publications/CTBTOP2.pdf>.
51 Ibid.
52 Jenifer Mackby, “SPECIAL REPORT: Did Maridia Conduct a Nuclear Test Explosion? On-Site Inspection and the CTBT,” Arms Control Today, (January/February 2015), <www.armscontrol.org/ACT/2015_0102/Features/Did-Maridia-Conduct-a-Nuclear-Test-Explosion-On-Site-Inspection-and-the-CTBT>.
53 S.A. Kreek, “Lessons Learned & Observations on the 2014 Integrated Field Exercise,” Report No. LLNL-TR-666289, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, January 16, 2015.
54 CTBT, Article IV, section D, paragraph 65.
55 Ibid., Article V, paragraph 1.
56 Ibid., Article V, paragraph 2.
57 Ibid., Article V, paragraph 3.
58 “Uniting for peace,” UN/GA/377 (V). A, November 3, 1950, <www.un.org/en/sc/repertoire/otherdocs/GAres377A(v).pdf>.
59 NAS, The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, pp. 161–79.