THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Abstract

The primary factor driving nuclear proliferation in the Middle East is Israel's unacknowledged possession of nuclear weapons, something that the West, and in particular the United States, often ignores. The impact of Israel's nuclear deterrent on countries in the region, especially Iran and Egypt, is explored. Additionally, Iran's concern that Pakistan's nuclear weapons could one day come under the control of religious extremists is assessed. The possible consequences for the region if Iran acquires a nuclear capability are also examined. Only by acknowledging that countries like Iran fear a nuclear attack by Israel and the United States, and then incorporating this reality into concrete nonproliferation policy actions, can the danger of nuclear weapons in the Middle East be reduced and eventually eliminated.

Keywords:

• Iran
• Israel
• Egypt
• Saudi Arabia
• WMD
• NPT

Notes

1. Shortly after the hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, in July and August 2006, Amr Musa, secretary general of the Arab League, declared in a televised press conference that “the peace process is dead.”

2. For a detailed history of Israel's nuclear program, see Avner Cohen, Israel and the Bomb (New York: Columbia University Press, 1999).

3. See Maria Rost Rublee, “Egypt's Nuclear Weapons Program: Lessons Learned,” in this issue.

4. Peter Scott Ford, ‘Israel's Attack on Osiraq: A Model for Future Preventative Strikes?’ M.A. thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, Sept.r 2004. In fact, the Israeli attack had the unintended effect of energizing and accelerating Iraq's drive for nuclear weapons and layering it in multiple layers of secrecy, making it even more difficult to detect. See Joseph Cirincione, “Bombs Won't ‘Solve’ Iran,” Washington Post, May 11, 2005, p. A17, <www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/10/AR2005051001185.html>; Dan Reiter, “Preventive Attacks against Nuclear Programs and the ‘Success’ at Osiraq,” Nonproliferation Review 12 (July 2005), pp. 355–371. For an opposing perspective, see “Jeremy Tamsett, “The Israeli Bombing of Osiraq Reconsidered: Successful Counterproliferation?,” Nonproliferation Review 11 (Fall/Winter 2004), pp. 70–85

5. See for example, Francis Harris, “‘America would back Israel attack on Iran’,” Daily Telegraph (London), Feb. 18, 2005, <www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/02/18/wiran18.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/02/18/ixnewstop.html>; Uzi Mahnaimi, “Revealed: Israel Plans Strike on Iranian Nuclear Plant,” Sunday Times (London), March 13, 2005, <www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-1522978,00.html>; WorldNetDaily.com, “U.S., Israel, to attack Iran nukes ‘before April’,” Jan. 23, 2006, <www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=48430>; Nathan Guttman, “U.S. Monitoring Israel's Iran Options,” Jerusalem Post, March 13, 2006, <www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull&cid=1139395596422>.

6. Public Broadcasting System, The American Experience, “Jimmy Carter,” 2002, <www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/carter/peopleevents/e_hostage.html>. See also, John Woolley and Gerhard Peters, The American Presidency Project, University of California at Santa Barbara Web Site, <www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=7080)>.

7. C. F. Carson, “Design Issues Concerning Iran's Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant VVER-1000 Conversion,” U.S. Dept. of Energy <www.energy.gov>.

8. Dafna Linzer, “Past Arguments Don't Square With Current Iran Policy,” Washington Post, March 26, 2005, p. A15.

9. Dafna Linzer, “Past Arguments Don't Square With Current Iran Policy,” Washington Post, March 26, 2005, p. A15.

10. Dafna Linzer, “Past Arguments Don't Square With Current Iran Policy,” Washington Post, March 26, 2005, p. A15.

11. See Mark Fitzpatrick, “Lessons Learned from Iran's Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons,” in this issue.

12. The United States does not actively support Mujahidin-i Khalq's activities, but it is giving this terrorist organization a safe refuge in Iraq against the will of the majority of Iraqis.

13. See Dan Williams, “Eyeing Iran Reactors, Israel Seeks U.S. Bunker Bombs,” Reuters, Sept. 21, 2004.

14. Douglas Waller, “The Many Obstacles to an Israeli Attack on Iran,” Time, Sept. 18, 2006, <www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1536265,00.html>.

15. See Patrick Seale, “Pressures Mount on Bush to Bomb Iran,” Daily Star, September 15, 2006. Seale writes, “President George W. Bush is coming under enormous pressure from Israel – and from Israel's neo-con friends inside and outside the U.S. administration – to harden still further his stance towards Iran. They want the American President to commit himself to bombing Iran if it does not give up its programme of uranium enrichment – and to issue a clear ultimation to Tehran that he is prepared to do so.” Seymour M. Hersch, “The Iran Plans,” New Yorker, April 17, 2006, pp. 30–37, <www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/060417fa_fact>.

16. In a poll conducted by the Tarrance Group in June 2005, 65 percent of Iranian adults thought that a fundamental change in Iran's system of government is needed. Poll details provided by the Iran Institute for Democracy, <www.iraninstitutefordemocracy.org/pdf/Iran_Exec_Summary_2005.pdf>.

17. Hamid Algar, Wahhabism: A critical Essay (New York: Islamic Publications International), p. 4.

18. Nicholas Blanford, “Shite-Sunni ‘Rift’ A Worry Across Region,” USA Today, April 13, 2006, <www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2006-04-13-iraq-rift_x.htm>.

19. For a short history of Egypt's nuclear efforts, see “Egypt Profile,” prepared by the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, Nuclear Threat Initiative Web Site, <www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Egypt/Nuclear/>.

20. William Wallis and Roula Khalaf, “Egypt's Intentions Queried after Revival of Nuclear Plans,” Financial Times, October 1, 2006, <www.ft.com/cms/s/02d3ca52-4cfc-11db-b03c-0000779e2340.html>.