PROSPECTS FOR NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, 2006–2016

Abstract

This article reconsiders the conventional wisdom that the prospects for nuclear proliferation in Southeast Asia are too small to mention. After outlining the assumptions that underpin the conventional wisdom, it identifies recent regional and global trends that tend to weaken those assumptions and develops two proliferation scenarios, one centered on Burma and the other on Indonesia. It finds that the prospects for nuclear proliferation in Southeast Asia before 2016 remain nearly as remote as the conventional wisdom suggests, yet current trends suggest that the foundation for future proliferation may be laid during the coming decade. The scenarios suggest that attention ought to be focused not just on countries that are likely to proliferate, but on ways that Southeast Asian individuals might be drawn into regional and global proliferation networks.

Keywords:

• Southeast Asia
• Nuclear proliferation
• Indonesia
• Burma
• Myanmar
• Iran
• Regional security
• Proliferation networks

Notes

1. Victor D. Cha, “Nuclear Weapons, Missile Defense, and Stability: A Case for Sober Optimism,” in Muthiah Alagappa, ed., Asian Security Order: Instrumental and Normative Features (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2003); Joseph Cirincione, “The Asian Nuclear Reaction Chain,” Foreign Policy 118 (Spring 2000), pp. 120–136; Rod Lyon, “Weapons Proliferation in Asia,” in Stephen Hoadley and Jürgen Rüland, eds., Asian Security Reassessed (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2006); and Mitchell B. Reiss, “Prospects for Nuclear Proliferation in Asia,” in Ashley J. Tellis and Michael Wills, eds., Strategic Asia 2005-06: Military Modernization in an Era of Uncertainty (Seattle,WA: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2005).

2. On the absence of concern for nuclear proliferation in studies of Southeast Asian security, see Amitav Acharya, Constructing a Security Community in Southeast Asia: ASEAN and the Problem of Regional Order (London: Routledge, 2001); Alan Collins, Security and Southeast Asia: Domestic, Regional, and Global Issues (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2003); Mely Caballero-Anthony, Regional Security in Southeast Asia: Beyond the ASEAN Way (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2005); and Donald Weatherbee, International Relations in Southeast Asia: The Struggle for Autonomy (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2005).

3. Michael Richardson, A Time Bomb for Global Trade: Maritime-Related Terrorism in an Age of Weapons of Mass Destruction (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2004); Andrew Prosser, “Nuclear Trafficking Routes: Dangerous Trends in Southern Asia,” Center for Defense Information (Nov. 22, 2004), <www.cdi.org/PDFs/TraffickingSmuggling.pdf>. On tentative steps to forestall this possibility, see Tanya Ogilvie-White, “Non-proliferation and Counter-terrorism Cooperation in Southeast Asia: Meeting Global Obligations through Regional Security Architectures?” Contemporary Southeast Asia 28 (June 2006).

4. For example, see Acharya, Constructing a Security Community, and Caballero-Anthony, Regional Security in Southeast Asia.

5. Sheldon Simon, “Southeast Asia's Defense Needs: Change Or Continuity?” in Tellis and Wills, Strategic Asia 2005-06; and Andrew Tan, “Force Modernization Trends in Southeast Asia,” Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, Singapore, Working Paper 59 (Jan. 2004). On Burma's modernization efforts, see Samuel Blythe, “Myanmar's Junta Fears U.S. Invasion,” Asia Times, April 28, 2006, <www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/HD28Ae03.html>.

6. David Shambaugh, “China Engages Asia: Reshaping the Regional Order,” International Security 29 (Winter 2004/2005), p. 65.

7. Michael A. Glosny, “Heading toward a Win-Win Future? Recent Developments in China's Policy toward Southeast Asia,” Asian Security 2 (2006), p. 25.

8. The quotation is from Chien-peng Chung, “Southeast Asia-China Relations: Dialectics of ‘Hedging’ and ‘Counter-Hedging,’” in Southeast Asian Affairs 2004 (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2004), p. 36. On India, see Sudhir Devare, India and Southeast Asia: Towards Security Convergence (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2006).

9. The text of the “Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone,” signed Dec. 15, 1995, and in force since 1997, is available from the ASEAN Secretariat, <www.aseansec.org/2082.htm>. For an overview, see M.C. Abad Jr., “A Nuclear-Weapon-Free Southeast Asia and Its Continuing Strategic Significance,” Contemporary Southeast Asia 27 ( Aug. 2005).

10. Bertil Lintner, “Burma Joins the Nuclear Club,” Far Eastern Economic Review, Dec. 27, 2001, p. 26.

11. Bertil Lintner and Shawn W. Crispin, “Dangerous Bedfellows,” Far Eastern Economic Review, Nov. 20, 2003, p. 22.

12. William Ashton, “Burma's Nuclear Program: Dream or Nightmare?” The Irrawaddy 12 (May 2004), <www.irrawaddy.org/database/2004/vol12.5/a-nuclear.html>; and Andrew Selth, “Pariah Partners in Arms,” The Irrawaddy 12 (March 2004), <www.irrawaddy.org/database/2004/vol12.3/a-arms.html>.

13. Lintner and Crispin, “Dangerous Bedfellows,” p. 22.

14. The quotations are from Greg Sheridan, “Burma Seeks Nuclear Weapons Alliance with N. Korea,” The Australian, July 5, 2006, <www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19689419-601,00.html>; and see also, Greg Sheridan, “Asia's Evil Empires,” The Weekend Australian, July 8, 2006, p.18, <www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19722214-601,00.html>.

15. Bertil Lintner, “Myanmar and North Korea Share a Tunnel Vision,” Asia Times, July 19, 2006, <www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/HG19Ae01.html>.

16. Wayne Bert, “Burma, China, and the U.S.A.,” Pacific Affairs 77 (Summer 2004); Donald M. Seekins, “Burma-China Relations,” Asian Survey 37 (June 1997), pp. 525–539.

17. Acharya, Constructing a Security Community in Southeast Asia, pp. 102–127; and Kay Möller, “Cambodia and Burma: The ASEAN Way Ends Here,” Asian Survey 38 (Dec. 1998).

18. Sai Silp, “Thai-Burma Meeting Concluded amid Disputes,” The Irrawaddy, Aug. 11, 2006, <www.irrawaddy.org/aviewer.asp?a=6062&z=154>.

19. Blythe, “Myanmar's Junta.” This article provides an extensive description of the steps Burma has taken to modernize its military.

20. Vijay Joshi, “Burma Rebuked by Malaysia as North Korean Talks Break Down,” Associated Press, July 24, 2006.

21. As reported by Samuel Blythe, “Many also view the regime's recent establishment of the new bunker-fortified, inland capital in Pyinmana as partly motivated by the junta's fears of a possible U.S. invasion. The leaked [Burmese] Defense Department document confirms that analysis in stark detail.” See Blythe, “Myanmar's Junta,” for a description of the contents of this document.

22. Lintner, “Myanmar and North Korea Share a Tunnel Vision.”

23. Sunil Jagtiani, “India Looks to Burma to Slake Growing Thirst for Gas,” Christian Science Monitor, April 26, 2006, p. 4.

24. “China and India Battle for Myanmar's Gas,” Petroleum Economist, May 2006, p. 1; David Fullbrook, “Resource-Hungry China to Devour More of Burma's Gas and Oil Industry,” The Irrawaddy, Feb. 1, 2006, <www.irrawaddy.org/aviewer.asp?a=5427&z=155>; Jagtiani, “India Looks to Burma to Slake Growing Thirst for Gas”; and Sudha Ramachandran, “India Embraces Myanmar on Its Own Terms,” Asia Times, June 28, 2006, <www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/HF28Df01.html>.

25. On the slenderest of evidence, it has been shown that Sukarno talked about acquiring nuclear weapons. See Robert M. Cornejo, “When Sukarno Sought the Bomb: Indonesian Nuclear Aspirations in the Mid-1960s,” Nonproliferation Review 7 (Summer 2000), pp. 31–43.

26. “Indonesia to Offer New Oil Exploration Blocks,” Reuters, Aug. 15, 2006; Hadi Soesastro and Raymond Atje, “Survey of Recent Developments,” Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies 41 (2005), p. 27.

27. “Indonesia Says to up '07 Budget Oil Price to $65/Bbl,” Reuters, Aug. 15, 2006; “Indonesia President Forecasts H2 Pick-Up in Economy,” Reuters, Aug. 16, 2006.

28. Michael Richardson, “If Oil-Crunched Indonesia Goes Nuclear...,” Straits Times, June 5, 2004; Shawn Donnan, “Indonesia Looks at Stalled Plans for N-Plant,” Financial Times, Feb. 11, 2004, p. 2.

29. The full text of the decision is available, in Indonesian, on the presidential Web Site, <www.presidensby.info/DokumenUU.php/81.pdf>.

30. “RI Exploring Possibility of Cooperating with U.S. to Build Nuclear Power Plant,” Antara News, July 15, 2006, <www.antara.co.id/en/seenws/?id=16372>.

31. “RI Could Have Nuclear Power Plant in Five Years Time: Minister,” Antara News, June 27, 2006, <www.antara.co.id/en/seenws/?id=15265>.

32. Veeramalla Anjaiah, “RI-Iran: Will Honeymoon Become Strategic Partnership?” Jakarta Post, May 8, 2006.

33. “Indonesian Legislators Observe Iranian Nuclear Power Plant,” Antara News, Feb. 9, 2006, <www.antara.co.id/en/seenws/index.php?id=8794>.

34. “MPs Regret Indonesia's Abstain on Iranian Nuclear Issue,” Antara News, Feb. 15, 2006, <www.antara.co.id/en/seenws/index.php?id=8939>.

35. “D-8 Officials Agree to Trade, Energy Cooperation Plans,” Jakarta Post, May 11, 2005, p. 12; Tomi Soetjipto and Muklis Ali, “Iran President Says West Nuclear Concern a ‘Big Lie,’” Reuters, May 10, 2006.

36. “Iranian Envoy Visits BATAN Nuclear Reactor Center in W Java,” Antara News, April 6, 2006, <www.antara.co.id/en/seenws/index.php?id=11064>; “Menristek Iran Kunjungi Reaktor GA Siwabessy,” BATAN, July 3, 2006; “Iran, Indonesia Set to Expand Scientific Cooperation,” IRNA, June 27, 2006, <www.irna.ir/en/news/view/line-16/0606271512121846.htm>.

37. “RI Should Cooperate with Iran on Nuclear Projects: House Speaker,” Jakarta Post, Aug. 28, 2006. A similar report appeared in Indonesian; see “Indonesia Bisa Bekerja Sama dengan Iran,” Kompas, Aug. 28, 2006, <www.kompas.com/ver1/internasional/0608/28/143627.htm>.