Back to Normalization or Conflict with China in Greater Central Asia?

Abstract

Analysis of primary survey data collected among university students in Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan shows that China’s surging influence is felt by locals in Greater Central Asia (GCA). If China continues to interact more through the bazaars and road constructions, it will embed itself deeper into the local imaginations. The future elites of GCA might not necessarily see the rising influence of China in the framework of “great game” competition between Russia and China. Rather, China’s relations with GCA is just back to a kind of “new normal” which both regions had enjoyed back in the 19th century.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

We would like to thank Obert Hodzi for commenting on earlier versions of this paper.

Notes

1. Expert interview with Aziz Burkhanov, professor at Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan, December 30, 2017.

2. There is quite a lot of literature on the history of Herat and the role trade has played throughout history. Trade is seen here both in economic terms and in terms of supporting culture and inter- or trans-cultural dialogue. Some recent studies include Franke (2015), Gammell (2016), and Leslie (2015).

3. Neither our survey nor the Asian Barometer can capture the nuances of meanings of words such as “Asia” and “benefit/harm.” Take the notion of Asia for example. It is understood differently in various periods of history for Central Asians (Gorshenina 2007, 2014). Our survey question is still valid, however, as what we seek to understand from the respondents is not “where” China plays an important role exactly but how the respondents perceive the general political, cultural, and economic influence of China in this broadly defined region.

4. Expert interview with Aziz Burkhanov, professor at Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan, December 30, 2017.

Additional information

Funding

This article was written with the financial support of the Chiang Ching-Kuo Foundation for the project on “Central Asian Perspectives on the Rise of China” (RG002-U-14).