The Khoikhoi Population, 1652-1780: A Review of the Evidence and Two New Estimates

Abstract

Fourie and Green construct estimates of the Khoikhoi population over the 1652-1780 period using benchmarks for the initial and terminal Khoi populations and benchmarks for the punctuated population declines from smallpox epidemics in 1713 and 1755. I review the evidence underlying each of the four population benchmarks. For population benchmarks to be comparable, they need to compare the same populations over the same geographic areas. Since the 1652 benchmark is for the Khoi population and the 1780 benchmark is for the Khoi and San populations, the 1780 benchmark is revised to include just the Khoi population. Qualitative evidence also points to a higher rate of population decline between 1652 and 1723 and a smaller rate of decline between 1723 and 1780. Using the Fourie- Green methodology and adopting 3 of their 4 population benchmarks, I develop two revised estimates of the Khoi population to supplement the original Fourie-Green estimates.

Notes

1 I thank Frank Lewis, Alan Dye, and an anonymous referee for very insightful comments.

2 A wide range of estimates is also found for populations of first peoples in the Americas.

3 Jan van Riebeeck, Journal, 26 August 1660 as translated in Moodie (1960: 213-214). van Riebeeck wrote that the Chainaquas “far exceed the Cochoquas in numbers of men and cattle, and yet the latter are supposed to be fully 17,000 or 18,000 in number …”

4 Jan van Riebeeck, Memorandum left by Commander J. van Riebeeck, for the information and guidance of his successor Z. Wagenaar, 5 May I662, as translated in Moodie (1960: 246-248).

5 Jan van Riebeeck, Memorandum left by Commander J. van Riebeeck, for the information and guidance of his successor Z. Wagenaar, 5 May I662, in Moodie (1960: 246-248).

6 The indirect effects of conflict may be more important than direct losses. Khoikhoi who lost their livestock or their access to the lands and water needed to support their herds became increasingly attached to settler farmers (Guelke and Shell, 1992; Fourie and van Zanden, 2013; Fourie and Green, 2015). The defeat of the Khoikhoi in the Second Dutch-Khoi War (1673-1676) and the expansion of settlers onto lands and sources of water previously used by Khoi herders were two forces underlying Khoi decisions to work with settlers. Recent estimates of the number of Khoikhoi attached to settler farmers by Fourie and van Zanden (2013) and Fourie and Green (2015) show sharp increases in these numbers after 1682.

7 Testimony of Dr. Thomas Hodgkin, House of Commons (1836: 455-457), 9 May 1836. See Marks (1972) for discussion of Khoi-settler interactions.

8 Testimony of Dr. Thomas Hodgkin, House of Commons (1836: 455-456), 9 May 1836. Hodgkin's testimony to the Select Committee indicated that the Committee staff emphasized eye witness reports from travellers “who have visited the extremity of Africa at a remote period, and speak of it as highly populous…

9 The extent of the Cape covered by each estimate could be different, as the estimate of 50,000 people is for 130,000 square miles, whereas the estimate of 200,000 people at 3 people per square mile is consistent with an area of 66,667 square miles. For context, note that the Western Cape Province of South Africa encompasses 49,981 square miles.

10 Stow (1905: 248) also noted that “these Cape tribes were neither all annihilated, nor reduced to serfdom, but that a considerable number fled from the danger which threatened them and migrated to the north and northeast, and that their descendants are now to be found amongst the present Koranas and Griquas.”

11 No geographic definition of the Southwestern Cape goes beyond the Orange River. Because the Great Namaqua used grazing grounds on both sides of the Orange River, they may or may not be included in estimates of the Khoi population in the Southwestern Cape. It would, however, be hard to reach the 200,000 estimate of the 1652 Khoi population without including them.

12 San and Khoi populations were somewhat fluid during the first 100 years of Dutch settlement, with Khoi families who lost their livestock to settler raids, disease, or drought sometimes absorbed into the San population. The San were in a very different situation vis-a-vis the settlers than the Khoi, as they hunted wild game and poached both Khoi and settler livestock. Dutch settlers and Khoi groups reacted by organizing commando raids to kill San males and take San women and children prisoner. See Adhikari (2008) for a summary of the academic literature on the San and the Dutch campaigns to exterminate them.

13 Moodie (1960: 241, 272, 291, 336, 363, 370, 386, 420).

14 Moodie (1960: 146).

15 Moodie (1960: 241).

16 Moodie (1960: 291).

17 Moodie (1960: 336)

18 Elphick (1977: 226).

19 Elphick (1977: 229).

20 Guelke and Shell (1992: 804, fn 1) noted that “Theal's [G.M. Theal, History of South Africa (London, 1922), III, pp. 475-77] emphasis on the disastrous impact of the smallpox epidemic of 1713 has found support among later historians such as W.M. MacMillan, J.S. Marais, P.J. Van der Merwe and Monica Wilson.” For example, in the Oxford Hist ory, Monica Wilson wrote that “the smallpox epidemics of 1713, 1755 and 1767 so decimated the Khoikhoi that the very names of some hordes were forgotten.” Wilson references Schapera (1930) for this quote.

21 The standard story of the origins of the 1713 epidemic is that the virus was introduced by clothing sent ashore for laundering. Carlos and Lewis (2012: 284) noted that “[a]lthough droplets or scabs that fall on bedding or clothing remain infectious in principle, laboratory tests using vaccinia virus indicate that infection is unlikely because of how the material is handled by the respiratory tract. Also, in experiments on the persistence of infectivity, it has been found that the virus is rapidly inactivated, even on heavily contaminated objects. There are instances of laundry workers contracting smallpox, but the documented cases of smallpox transmission via fomites are very rare (Fenner et al., 1988: 194).” See also Hopkins (1995). The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2016) states that smallpox “scabs and the fluid found in the patient's sores also contained the variola virus. The virus can spread through these materials or through the objects contaminated by them, such as bedding or clothing. People who cared for smallpox patients and washed their bedding or clothing had to wear gloves and take care to not get infected.”

22 Cape Archives, Leibbrandt Manuscripts 18, Letters Received by Council of Policy, 9 Nov. 1714, as quoted in Penn (2005: 43, 298).

23 In his classic study of settler interaction with Khoi groups, Elphick (1977: 233) concluded that the 1713 smallpox epidemic led to the loss of a majority of the Khoi population.

24 Hawai‘i provides a good example of an indigenous population that declined by 85-95 percent after contact with Europeans in 1778. An initial population of 400,000-500,000 people in 1778 declined to just over 44,000 native Hawaiians in the 1884 Census. A smallpox epidemic in 1853 accounted for 5,000-6,000 deaths, which was less than ten percent of the Native Hawaiian population in the 1853 Census (Bushnell, 1993).

25 For a contrary view, see Riley (2010).

26 Steffensen (1977: 49) estimated that the mortality rate in Iceland's 1707-1709 smallpox epidemic was 26.4 percent, well above mortality rates in other post-1700 western epidemics. Steffensen's estimate is based on specific counts of smallpox deaths from 6 of 10 Iceland communes. Steffensen argued that mortality rates were high partly because the number of people who were ill simultaneously reduced the ability of people to care for each other.

27 Ross (1977: 422) concluded that the Khoi population “suffered as badly as the whites and slaves alongside them, perhaps worse,” from the 1713 epidemic. Ross (1977: 421) estimated white and slave losses at “around 20 percent” and later in the same article found that Khoi population losses must have been less than 30 percent. This is because white and slave mortality rates were smaller in rural areas where almost all Khoi lived. See Ross (1977: 422-23).

28 E.H. Burrows (1958: 64) provided some information on the case fatality rate of European settlers in the 1767 smallpox epidemic. Although confined to Cape Town, roughly 2,000 European settlers contracted smallpox. Only 179 died, a case fatality rate of just 9 percent.

29 As quoted in and translated by Ross (1977: 417).

30 As quoted in and translated by Ross (1977: 417). See also Theal (1909: 433).

31 As quoted in and translated by Ross (1977: 417).

32 It is generally agreed that the smallpox epidemic of 1767 was mostly confined to Cape Town and had little effect on the Khoikhoi living in rural areas.

33 The 1805 Census did not count Khoi living in Nama lands north of the Orange River and did not count Khoi living in Little Namaqualand and Bushmanland as they were not officially part of the Cape Colony.