An Analysis of the Assassination of the Lebanese Hezbollah Commander Imad Mughniyah: Hypotheses and Consequences

Abstract

The assassination of Imad Mughniyah, the legendary Lebanese Hezbollah military commander, was expected to trigger great violence. Initially the Lebanese Hezbollah blamed Israel and promised massive retaliation. Many months after Mughniyah's death, his assassination is still shrouded in mystery. This article discusses and analyzes competing hypotheses about who is responsible for Mughniyah's death and explores the consequences and ramifications that would result from identifying the assassin and solving the mystery.

Notes

The word Hezibollah may be spelled different ways including “Hizballah,” “Hizbollah,” and “Hezballah.” The spelling “Hezbollah” has been used in this article except when quoting or referencing other sources. “Mughniyah” may also be spelled “Mughniyeh.” The former is used here except when quoting or referencing other sources.

The Interpol states Mughniyah's birth date as December 7, 1962. http://www.interpol.int/Public/data/wanted/notices/data/1994/81/1994_22881.asp

For a list of killings and operations attributed to Mughniyah see no author cited, “Report: Reputed Terrorist Long Sought by CIA Killed in Explosion,” CNN (February 14, 2008), http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/02/13/hezbollah/index.html?eref=rss_topstories, accessed February 14, 2008.

For a brief biography see no author cited, Zendegi-Nameh Shahid Mughniyah [“Biography of Martyred Mughniyah”], Fars News Agency (February 13, 2008). http://www. aftab.ir/news/2008/feb/13/c1c1202920679_politics_world_emad.php, accessed June 30, 2008, in Persian. For the best and most detailed biographical information on Mughniyah see the interview with Anis Naghash conducted by Sharif News at http://www.peykeiran.com/iran_news_body.aspx?ID = 49139 (April 18, 2008), accessed June 29, 2008, in Persian. Mr. Naghash is the terrorist who attempted to assassinate former Iranian Prime Minister Dr. Shapour Bakhtiar in exile in France. A French policewoman and a bystander were killed, but Bakhtiar survived. Although Naghash was convicted for the murders, the Iranian government succeeded in gaining his freedom and return to Iran. Naghash knew Mughniyah from their youth, and they became close friends. They spent a great deal of time together in Iran. Naghash resides in Tehran. Masoud Kazemzadeh thanks Iran Dokht who referred these sources to him.

Ronen Bergman, “Bracing for Revenge,” The New York Times, February 18, 2008; and Isabel Kershner, “Israel Heightens Its Security After a Threat of Revenge,” The New York Times, February 15, 2008.

No author cited, “Syria ‘to Name Mughniyeh Killer,'” (February 15, 2008), http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7246715.stm, accessed February 15, 2008. No author cited, “Terror Mughniyah, Khata-e Rahbordi Tel Aviv: Goftogoy ‘Iran' Ba Hassan Hoballah Ozve Shakhes-e Ferakcion Hezbollah Dar Parleman” [“The Assassination of Mughniyah, the Strategic Mistake of Tel Aviv: An Interview with Hassan Hoballah a Prominent Member of Hezbollah Fraction in the Parliament”] (February 17, 2008), http://www. aftab.ir/news/2008/feb/17/c1c1203251656_politics_world_emad_moghnie. php accessed June 30, 2008, in Persian.

The spokesman of the Foreign Ministry, Mohammad Ali Husseini, delivered the Iranian government's official position. No author cited, “Iran Terror Imad Mughniyah Raa Be Sheddat Mahkoom Kard” [“Iran Strongly Condemns the Assassination of Imad Mughniyah”] (February 14, 2008), http://www. aftab.ir/news/2008/feb/14/c1c1202983855_politics_world_emad. php, accessed June 30, 2008, in Persian.

In an insightful article published before the assassination, Paul Salem argued that some Israelis “talked of the necessity of another war against Hezbollah in the near future, to reverse the impression in the Arab and Islamic world—and in Israel—that Hezbollah had won, and to eliminate Hezbollah as a military threat.” Paul Salem, “The After-Effects of the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War,” Contemporary Arab Affairs, vol. 1, no. 1 (January 2008): 19.

No author cited, “Syria ‘to Name Mughniyeh killer,'” Sheikh Afif al-Nablisy told Hezbollah's al-Manar television “Any attack against the resistance (Lebanese Hezbollah) will be met with the resistance's response. Eye for an eye, individual for an individual, leader for a leader.” Radio Farda (February 13, 2008). http://www.radiofarda.com/Article/2008/02/13/o2_us_iran_mughneih.html, accessed February 14, 2008.

For an excellent analysis see Salem, op. cit., 15–24.

Ibid., 20.

Ibid., 24.

William Harris, “Republic of Lebanon,” in David Long, Bernard Reich, and Mark Gasiorowski, eds., The Government and Politics of the Middle East, 5th ed. (Boulder, 2007), 250.

Ibid., 240.

Ibid., 246.

Salem, op. cit., 24.

Harris, op. cit., 250.

Salem, op. cit.,

See Hezbollah's organizational chart at Ahmad Nizar Hamzeh, In the Path of Hizbullah (Syracuse, 2004), 46.

Khamanehi can be spelled “Khamenei.” The spelling “Khamanehi” has been used in this article except when quoting or referencing other sources.

Ahmad Nizar Hamzeh, op. cit, (Syracuse, 2004), 32.

Ibid., 33–34. Wilayat [“Velayat” in Persian] means “rule,” “guardianship,” or “sovereignty.” Faqih refers to a high-ranking Shia cleric. Wilayat al Faqih [“Velayat Faqih” in Persian] refers to the rule of a high-ranking Shia cleric, which was put into effect by Ayatollah Khomeini after he came to power in February 1979. This doctrine opposed the orthodox Shia doctrine of entezar [waiting, expecting], which referred to the Shia faithful waiting for the appearance of the Mehdi, the Shia's 12th imam. The doctrine of Wilayat al Faqih argues that during the absences of the 12th imam, Muslims should be ruled by a high-ranking Shia cleric. Khomeini regarded himself to be the leader of all Muslims (Shias and Sunnis alike). The same rank was claimed by Khamanehi. The highest ranked clerics in Iran and Iraq have rejected the Wilayat al Faqih doctrine and the leadership of Khomeini (and Khamanehi after Khomeini's death). The highest ranked cleric in Iran in 1979 was Grand Ayatollah Kazem Shariatmadari. The highest ranked cleric in Iraq in 1979 was Grand Ayatollah Abul Qasim Khui. Since Khui's death in 1992, the highest ranked Shia cleric in Iraq has been Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. Both Khui and Sistani are of Iranian origins.

Hamzeh, op. cit., 33–34.

Harris, op. cit., 233.

Michael Young, “The Dilemmas of Being an Iranian Bullet,” The Daily Star, August 24, 2006.

To counter the notion of being subservient to a non-Arab country and leader, Lebanese Shiite supporters of the Iranian regime (with the help of the Iranian government) argue that Khomeini was of Arab origins, his ancestors being from Mecca. A propaganda film was produced by al-Manar in Lebanon and the regime in Iran and put on YouTube by www.aimislam.com, which is a Shiite fundamentalist group based in Britain and a supporter of the Iranian regime. The film can be seen at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCZ-jmDbjmQ&feature = related, accessed February 15, 2008. The 3:55 video mentions that Khomeini “is of Arab origins, from the holy city of Mecca.” The video continues to mention the Arab, Mecca, and Arabian Peninsula origins of Khomeini more times (more than a dozen if one includes the pictorial images) to emphasize Khomeini's Arab ethnicity. The unmistakable subtext is that Khomeini is not Persian but Arab whose family was Arab and of direct descent from the Prophet Mohammad and who happened to have moved to Iran to spread Islam. Thus they are obeying and supporting an Arab descendent of the Prophet Mohammad who was ruling Iran. In other words, they are not supporting and obeying a non-Arab Iranian.

Ethan Bronner, “Israel Agrees to Exchange Prisoners for Dead Soldiers,” The New York Times, June 30, 2008; Amos Harel, Yoav Stern, and Yossi Melman, “Hezbollah Expected to Report Arad Died in Lebanon over a Decade Ago,” Haaretz online (July 4, 2008), http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/999018.html, accessed July 5, 2008; no author cited, “Israel Oks Hezbollah Prisoner Deal,” CNN (June 29, 2008), http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/06/29/israel.hezbollah/index.html?eref = rss_topstories, accessed July 1, 2008.

No author cited, “Report: Reputed Terrorist Long Sought by CIA Killed in Explosion,” CNN (February 14, 2008), http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/02/13/hezbollah/index.html?eref = rss_topstories, accessed February 15, 2008.

James Risen, “Before bin Laden, One of the World's Most Feared Men,” The New York Times, February 14, 2008.

Ali Mohtadi, Lobnan: Ghodratnama-ee dowlat va Hezbollah [Lebanon: Show of force by the government and the Hezbollah] (February 14, 2008), http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,3127651,00.html?maca = per-rss-per-all-1491-rdf, accessed February 15, 2008, in Persian.

No author cited, “Damascus Declaration: Syria Involved in Mughniyah's Murder,” YaLibnan online edition (March 17, 2008), http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2008/03/damascus_declar.php, accessed July 1, 2008.

No author cited, Ghalat An Maa Nashr Yahdaf Latzalil al-Tahqiq: Armalh Imad Mughniyah Tanfi Etehham Soria Balwoqof Vara' Eghtiyal Zowjah [“She Said That What Was Published Is Aimed to Mislead the Investigation: Mughniyah's Widow Denies Accusing Syria of Being Behind Her Husband's Assassination”], Al-Arabiyah News Channel online edition (March 3, 2008), available http://www.alarabiya.net/save_print.php?print = 1&cont_id = 46412, accessed August 12, 2008, in Arabic.

Hassan Hashemian, “Terror Marmooztarin Shakhsiyat Kadr Rahbari Hezbollah Lobnan” [Terror of the Most Secretive Personality in the Leadership Cadre of the Lebanese Hezbollah] (February 13, 2008), http://news.iran-emrooz.net/index.php?/news1/15401/, accessed February 14, 2008, in Persian.

No author cited, “Report: Hizbullah Chief Assassinated After Warning Syria's Assad of Coup Plot,” World Tribune (June 9, 2008), http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2008/me_syria0222_06_08.asp, accessed June 10, 2008; and “Die Welt Report: Assef Shawkat Attempted a Coup in Syria,” YaLibnan online edition (June 8, 2008), http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2008/06/die_welt_report.php, accessed June 28, 2008.

His first name has also been spelled “Assef.” “Shawkat” can be spelled in different ways, including “Chawkat,” “Shaukat,” and “Showkat.” The spelling “Shawkat” has been used in this article except when quoting or referencing other sources.

No author cited, “Report: Hizbullah Chief Assassinated,” World Tribune. Khaddam, a longtime rival of Bashar Assad, was forced by Assad to resign in the summer of 2005. Khaddam subsequently went into exile in order to lead the opposition. David W. Lesch, “Syrian Arab Republic,” in David Long, Bernard Reich, and Mark Gasiorowski, eds., The Government and Politics of the Middle East, 5th ed. (Boulder, 2007), 291.

No author cited, “Report: Hizbullah Chief Assassinated,” World Tribune.

No author cited, “Syria: Lead Mughniyah Investigator Replaced,” Stratfor (March 25, 2008). This report has been reposted at Professor Joshua Landis's scholarly blog “Syrian Comment: Syrian Politics, History, and Religion,” available at: http://joshualandis.com/blog/?p = 747, accessed July 1, 2008.

No author cited, “Die Welt Report: Assef Shawkat Attempted a Coup in Syria,” YaLibnan online edition (June 8, 2008), http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2008/06/die_welt_report.php,accessed July 1, 2008.

Manal Lutfi, “Religious and Political Shiism in Syria,” Asharq Alawsat online edition (June 28, 2008), http://www.aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section = 3&id=13224, accessed June 29, 2008.

Rime Allaf, Open for Business: Syria's Quest for a Political Deal, Chatham House Briefing Paper (July 2007), http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/9441_bp0707syria.pdf, accessed June 1, 2008. No author cited, “Public Security Minister: PM Serious about Negotiations with Syria,” Haaretz online (October 7, 2007), http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/880335.html, accessed June 1, 2008. Alain Gresh, “Assad Is No Ahmadinejad,” Guardian. Comment is free online (July 12, 2008), http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/12/syria.iran, accessed July 12, 2008.

Manal Lutfi, “Religious and Political Shiism in Syria,” Asharq Alawsat online edition (June 28, 2008), http://www.aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section = 3&id=13224, accessed June 29, 2008.

Eli Lake, “Obama Advisor Leads Delegation to Damascus,” The New York Sun, February 12, 2008, http://www.nysun.com/article/71123, accessed February 14, 2008; and Eli Lake, “Advisor to Clinton Meets with President of Syria,” The New York Sun, February 15, 2008, http://www.nysun.com/article/71359, accessed February 16, 2008.

Lake, “Advisor to Clinton Meets with President of Syria.”

Oren Barak, “Towards a Representative Military? The Transformation of the Lebanese Officer Corps Since 1945,” Middle East Journal, vol. 60, no. 1 (winter 2006): 87–88.

Lucy Fielder, “Sending in the Troops,” Al-Ahram Weekly online edition, August 17–23, 2006, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2006/808/re501.htm, accessed September 19, 2008. Gen. Al-Hteit was one of the top generals in Lebanon who drew the so-called Blue Line border between Israel and Lebanon after May 2000.

No author cited, Joziyat Jadid Az Naghsh Arabestan Saudi Dar Terror Shahid Mughniyah [“New Details on the Role of Saudi Arabia in the Assassination of Martyred Mughniyah”], Fars News Agency (April 26, 2008), http://www. aftab. ir/news/2008/apr/26/c1c1209222464_politics_world. php, accessed June 29, 2008, in Persian. For excerpts in English translation see “Syria: Saudis Behind Slain Hezbollah Commander's Death, Say Iranian Sources,” AKI News Service (April 8, 2008), http://www.adnkronos.com/AKI/English/Security/?id = 1.0.2051107264#, accessed April 9, 2008.

For brief discussions of possible Iranian motives in accusing Saudi Arabia, see the various entries on the official blog site of the Foreign Policy Association, April 29, 2008, http://middleeast.foreignpolicyblogs.com/category/iran/, accessed May 15, 2008.

No author cited, Hamas Deakhalat Felestiniha Dar Terror Imad Mughniyah ra rad kard [Hamas Denied the Involvement of Palestinians in the Assassination of Imad Mughniyah], Fars News Agency (February 17, 2008), http://www.aftab.ir/news/2008/feb/17/c1c1203258869_politics_world_emad_moghnie. php, accessed June 28, 2008, in Persian.

No author cited, Vazir keshvar Kuwait: dar parvandeh terror Mughniyah bi-gonahim [“Interior Minister of Kuwait: We Are Innocent in the Assassination of Mughniyah”], Rooznameh Iran (April 14, 2008), http://www. aftab. ir/news/2008/apr/14/c1c1208162238_politics_world_emad_moghnie. php, accessed June 29, 2008, in Persian. Rooznameh Iran is the official publication of record of the Iranian government.

Ahmad Al-Khaled, “Kuwait Cabinet Chides Mughniyah Mourners,” Kuwait Times online edition (February 19, 2008), http://www.kuwaittimes.net/read_news.php?newsid = MTI1OTA1MDAwNQ = =, accessed July 23, 2008; no author cited, “Kuwait MPs Expelled for Mourning Mughniyah,” Al-Arabiya News Channel (February 20, 2008), http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2008/02/20/45901.html, accessed July 23, 2008.

Ladan Boroumand and Roya Boroumand, “Terror, Islam, and Democracy,” Journal of Democracy, vol. 13, no. 2 (April 2002): 5–20; Reza Afshari, Human Rights in Iran: The Abuse of Cultural Relativism (Philadelphia, 2001); and Ervand Abrahamian, Tortured Confessions: Prisons and Public Recantations in Modern Iran (Berkeley, 1999).

Human Rights Watch, “Ministers of Murder: Iran's New Security Cabinet” (December 2005), http://hrw.org/backgrounder/mena/iran1205/, accessed January 20, 2006.

For some documentary evidence see Nagoftehay Enghelab 57 [“Unspoken (Events) of the 1979 Revolution”], (May 23, 2008), http://enghelab-57.blogfa.com/post-30.aspx, accessed June 25, 2008, in Persian. This blog site is operated by former President Abol-Hassan Bani Sadr and his supporters. The article quotes from the secret Eterafaat Saeed Imami [“Confessions of Saeed Imami”]. It is based on the compilations of his interrogations and was published by the Board of Inquiry appointed by the then president Mohammad Khatami. The entire dossier comprises 18 volumes and 970 pages. The quoted statement by Imami that he and his team killed Ahmad Khomeini is in volume 16, page 384. Imadaldin Baghi, a former fundamentalist and current journalist, had taken one of the members of the assassination team to meet and confess to Ahmad Khomeini's son. Mr. Baghi has been in prison in the past several years. Also see Alireza Nourizadeh, Gozaresh Ghatl-ha va Eaterafat Saeed Imami [“Report on the Murders and Confessions of Saeed Imami”], 2nd edition (Spanga, Sweden, 2000), 72–73. In another book Nourizadeh mentions that Ali Fallahian (minister of intelligence during Rafsanjani's presidency), Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi (minister of interior during Ahmadinejad's presidency), and Saeed Imami were involved in the killing of Ahmad Khomeini. Nourizadeh, Sonay Zaafaranieyh [“Zaafaraniyeh's Sauna”], (no publisher, no date), 214. Dr. Nourizadeh is a famous Iranian journalist who has very close contacts with members of the Intelligence Ministry as well as many high-ranking Shia clerics who oppose the Iranian regime. Whether these allegations are true or false is hard to ascertain.

Masoud Kazemzadeh, “God's Assassins: The Lebanese Hezbollah and the Fundamentalist Regime Ruling Iran,” www.iranian.com (July 16, 2006), http://www.iranian.com/Kazemzadeh/2006/July/Hezbollah/index.html

This view has been articulated in the following books: Hamzeh, op. cit.; Augustus Richard Norton, Hezbollah: A Short History (Princeton, 2007); Magnus Ranstorp, Hizb'alla in Lebanon: The Politics of the Western Hostage Crisis (New York, 1997).

Mike McConnell, director of national intelligence, has speculated that internal Hezbollah rivals may have assassinated Mughniyah. According to McConnell: “There's some evidence that it may have been internal Hezbollah. It may have been Syria. We don't know yet, and we're trying to sort that out.” Yoav Stern et al. “U.S. Spy Chief: Hezbollah May Be Behind Mughniyah Killing,” Haaretz online edition (February 17, 2008), http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/954800.html, accessed March 15, 2008.

Fred Burton and Reva Bhalla, “Dissecting the ‘Party of God,'” Stratfor (November 28, 2008), http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/dissecting_party_god, accessed July 21, 2008.

Ibid.

No author cited, “Arabs Helped Mossad Kill Mughniyah,” The Jerusalem Post online edition (February 27, 2008), http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid = 1203847481137&pagename = Jpost %2FJPArticle%2FShowFull, accessed March 15, 2008.

Jim Clancy, “Clancy: Terror Mastermind's Deception Cause for Skepticism,” CNN (February 14, 2008), http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/02/13/btsc.clancy.mugniyah/index.html?eref = rss_topstories, accessed February 14, 2008.