Application of Perturbation Simulations in Population Risk Assessment for Different Life History Strategies and Elasticity Patterns

ABSTRACT

Population structure and life history strategies are determinants of how populations respond to stressor-induced impairments in organism-level responses. Effects on population growth rate were modeled using seven theoretical constructs that represented the life history strategies and elasticity patterns of a broad range of species. Simulations of low to high ranges of simultaneous reductions in survival and reproduction were conducted and results indicated that stressor impacts on population growth rate were a function of population characteristics and the magnitude of the stress. Species that had high reproductive elasticity had greater population-level impacts than species with high survival elasticity for the same organism-level effects. Perturbation simulations were performed to assess the extinction risk in two species with similar elasticity patterns but different life history strategies: mysid shrimp, Americamysis bahia, and the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, which can be related to classical K- and r-strategists, respectively. Deterministic extinction risk was greater for the K-strategist, which indicated that population level risks were dependent on life history strategies, and toxicity values (e.g., LC50s) should be interpreted with caution. Ecological risk assessments should consider both population structure and life history strategy of an ecological receptor, in addition to the intrinsic sensitivity of the species to contaminant stressors.

Keywords:

• population risk assessment
• population models
• elasticity analysis
• life history strategies

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