Ten Years of the Relative Risk Model and Regional Scale Ecological Risk Assessment

ABSTRACT

It has been 10 years since the publication of the relative risk model (RRM) for regional scale ecological risk assessment. The approach has since been used successfully for a variety of freshwater, marine, and terrestrial environments in North America, South America, and Australia. During this period the types of stressors have been expanded to include more than contaminants. Invasive species, habitat loss, stream alteration and blockage, temperature, change in land use, and climate have been incorporated into the assessments. Major developments in the RRM have included the extensive use of geographical information systems, uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo techniques, and its application to retrospective assessments to determine causation. The future uses of the RRM include assessments for forestry and conservation management, an increasing use in invasive species evaluation, and in sustainability. Developments in risk communication, the use of Bayesian approaches, and in uncertainty analyses are on the horizon.

Keywords:

• regional scale ecological risk assessment
• relative risk model

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This research effort has been supported by a number of people in addition to those serving as co-authors on the publications from this research effort: James K. Andreasen, Joe Bridgman, Peter M. Chapman, Anne Dailey, P. Bruce Duncan, Tim Hall, Eugene Hoerauf, Daniel A. Kluza, Carol Piening, Anne Sergeant, and the Science Advisory Panel for the Long Term Receiving Water Study of the National Council of Air and Stream Improvement.

This research has been supported financially by a number of sources including: British Petroleum Ferndale, National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, Prince William Sound RCAC, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the Washington State Department of Natural Resources. Current support for RRM research is from the City of Bellingham, U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Geological Survey, and the WWU Border Policy Institute.