Anticipation of Risks and Benefits of Emerging Technologies: A Prospective Analysis Method

ABSTRACT

Methods for the identification, evaluation, and control of hazards are well recognized, whereas a method for the anticipation of hazards has eluded the field of industrial hygiene. The Emerging Technologies Team at the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health has developed a method for anticipating not only occupational hazards but also potential benefits of emerging technologies for occupational safety and health. This method incorporates forecasting tools with a prospective assessment step into the risk assessment model, stresses research results as an iterative driver in the assessment, and depends on inherently safer design to eliminate or reduce hazards. An iterative process that involves the occupational safety and health professional as a team member in the development of emerging technologies is recommended.

KEY WORDS:

• risk assessment
• anticipatory analysis
• inherent safety
• injury prevention
• emerging technologies

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The NIOSH Emerging Technologies Team members that contributed to the methods explained in this article include George R. Bockosh (NIOSH and Team Leader), Nicholas Ashford (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), James Bartis (RAND Corp.), Tai Chan (General Motors Corporation), Michael Eichberg (Select Committee on Homeland Security), Matt Gillen (NIOSH), Rafael Moure-Eraso (University of Massachusetts), David Y. Pui (University of Minnesota), Maureen Ruskin (Occupational Safety and Health Administration), Randal P. Schumacher (Schumacher Partners International, LLC), Donald J. Stillwell (NASA), and Debra Yu (Pfizer, Inc.). Particular credit must be acknowledged to Barry L. Johnson (retired, USPHS) for his perspectives in revising the risk assessment model, and Lisa Brownsword (Spiral Development) and Parry M. Norling (AAAS Fellow) are acknowledged for their special insights into evaluating emerging technologies. The author acknowledges the financial support from NIOSH as a consultant to the Emerging Technologies Team.

Notes

¹Editor's note: The Three-Mile Island refers to a nuclear power plant situated in Pennsylvania. On March 28, 1979, one of the facility's nuclear reactors suffered a partial core meltdown, causing concern for release of radioactive material and possible public health consequences.