Adding Value to Ecological Risk Assessment with Population Modeling

ABSTRACT

Current measures used to estimate the risks of toxic chemicals are not relevant to the goals of the environmental protection process, and thus ecological risk assessment (ERA) is not used as extensively as it should be as a basis for cost-effective management of environmental resources. Appropriate population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between what we measure and what we want to protect. We then describe six actions needed for its implementation into management-relevant ERA.

Key Words:

• ecological risk assessment
• population modeling
• environmental management
• extinction risk
• extrapolation
• socioeconomic analysis

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Funding was provided by the Research Institute for Fragrance Materials (RIFM), ECETOC, and Roskilde University. The authors also thank the participants of the RUC09 Workshop for the stimulating discussions that led to the production of this article.

The views expressed here represent those of the authors and not necessarily those of the individual participants at the RUC09 Workshop.