Terrorist Radiological Dispersive Device (RDD) Scenario and Cancer Risk Assessment

ABSTRACT

Terrorist attacks using radiological dispersal devices (RDD) are important threats that can lead to major environmental, economic, and public health concerns. In a simulation using a Gaussian model, we sought to determine dose curves as a function of distance from the explosion core site and from these data to determine the relative risk of developing tumors as well as the probability of causation (i.e., the statistical correlation between occurrence of malignancies and previous exposure to radiation). Calculation confirmed the cause dependence on age at exposure and the probability of tumor causation. This study aimed at emphasizing the importance of responding rapidly and efficiently, with a user-friendly user methodology that initially may help to guide the response from basic actions to the complete decision process.

Key Words:

• terrorism
• radiological dispersion device
• total effective dose equivalent
• solid tumor risk
• relative risk
• probability of causation

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The authors thank the Brazilian Army Technological Center (CTEx), the Institute of Radioprotection and Dosimetry (CNEN/IRD), and the Nuclear Engineering Program of the Military Institute of Engineering (IME) for supporting this work.