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ABSTRACT
A new method, namely, the scenario-based method, is developed and further applied in assessing economic risk of paddy damage caused by floods in the Huai River sub-basin of China following these four steps: (1) generation of scenarios, (2) simulation of scenarios, (3) consequence of scenarios, and (4) comprehension of scenarios. In the first step, a rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) model is established to generate a set of storm scenarios in the sub-basin by selecting seven return periods. In the second step, the flooding simulation for each scenario is carried out based on the distributed Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model to obtain inundation depth (meter) and time (day) over the sub-basin. In the third step, a grid-based Flood Economic Loss Estimation (FELE) model of paddies is employed to estimate economic losses of paddies in Chinese Yuan (CNY), where inundation depth and duration are treated as parameters for each scenario. In the last step, the Conditioned Expected Losses (CELs) in CNY for each county is derived as a measurement of risk by fitting the risk curve with scenario samples. Based on CELs, an economic risk zoning map of paddy damage caused by floods in the Huai River sub-basin was created as a final result.