Developmental Trajectories of Opioid Use Among Juvenile Offenders: An Epidemiological Examination of Group Characteristics and Criminological Risk Factors

Abstract

Aims: Investigate patterns of change and continuity in opioid use among juvenile offenders during adolescence and early adulthood. Identify demographic characteristics of trajectory groups of opioid users. Examine the relevance of risk factors for predicting assignment to opioid use trajectory groups. Methods: The Pathways to Desistance sample, consisting of longitudinal data of 1,134 juvenile offenders, was utilized in analyses. Using group-based trajectory modeling, patterns of opioid use were identified. χ² tests provide information about the significant differences in gender, race, and socioeconomic status composition among the subgroups. Multinomial logistic regression were estimated to identify the relevance of risk factors for predicting assignment to subgroups. Results: A four-group model best fit the opioid use data (Abstaining, Low Accelerating, High Accelerating, Desisting). Race significantly delineated group membership at the bivariate level. Risk factor analysis indicated that lower self-control assessed at baseline predicted elevated risk of assignment to the Low Accelerating and High Accelerating groups. Higher frequency of marijuana use at baseline and a lifetime history of having experienced victimization was associated with assignment to the Desisting group. Conclusions: Chronic opioid use exists at elevated prevalence among juvenile offenders. Adolescents in the criminal justice system with low self-control should be targeted for intervention.

Keywords:

• Opioids
• juvenile offenders
• group-based trajectory modeling
• criminology

Disclosure statement

There are no conflicts of interest to declare.

Notes

1 The majority of qualifying offenses were felonies, with some serious misdemeanors also qualifying participants for inclusion (ex: sexual assault, weapons charges).

2 Funding for the Pathways to Desistance study was provided by the following organizations: Arizona Governor’s Justice Commission, Center of Disease Control, MacArthur Foundation, NIDA, NIJ, OJJDP Pennsylvania Commission on Crime & Delinquency, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, William Penn Foundation, William T. Grant Foundation.

3 The precise wording of the opioid use measure is as follows: “In the past six months how many times have you used opioids (such as heroin, codeine, demoral, morphine, percodan, methadone, darvon, Opium, dilaudid, or talwin)?”

4 These results were reported on the Pathways to Desistance public website: www.pathwaysstudy.pitt.edu

5 Some effects were unable to be computed due to small cell sizes.

6 Effects of self-control were just below the threshold of significance for impacting risk of assignment to the Low Accelerating group (p < .051), so it likely should still be considered as important for understanding assignment to both accelerating groups.

7 A variable delineating the Abstaining group from all other groups was created to test for the relevance of delineation of groups using logistic regression. Results indicated that lower self-control and higher frequency marijuana use predicted assignment to any of the three trajectory groups characterized by any opiate use. Black and Hispanic participants had lower odds of assignment to any of these groups, relative to White participants. However, victimization history was not a significant predictor and race effects differed across trajectory groups. This is indicative that delineation by trajectory group, rather than just any opiate use in the study period is relevant.