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Abstract
The long-term demand for commercial real estate depends on the relative attractiveness of each metro market compared to all other metro areas. Economic growth models can generate reliable forecasts of commercial real estate demand, but only for the near term. To analyze and compare metro areas over the long term, forecasts based on economic development factors are needed. To support this claim, propositions and empirical tests are presented that compare the influence of regional location, industry mix, and economic development factors on the long-term employment growth rates and employment instability of U.S. metro areas.