Stay-at-home works to fight against COVID-19: International evidence from Google mobility data

ABSTRACT

Daily Google mobility data covering 130 countries over the period between February 15, 2020 and May 2, 2020 suggest that less mobility is associated with lower COVID-19 cases and deaths. This observation is formally tested by using a difference-in-difference design, where country-fixed effects, day-fixed effects, as well as the country-specific timing of the 100th COVID-19 case are controlled for. The results suggest that 1% of a weekly increase in being at residential places leads to about 70 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 7 less weekly COVID-19 deaths, whereas 1% of a weekly decrease in visits to transit stations leads to about 33 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 4 less weekly COVID-19 deaths, on average across countries. Similarly, 1% of a weekly reduction in visits to retail & recreation results in about 25 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 3 less weekly COVID-19 deaths, or 1% of a weekly reduction in visits to workplaces results in about 18 less weekly COVID-19 cases and about 2 less weekly COVID-19 deaths.

KEYWORDS:

• Coronavirus
• stay-at-home
• Google mobility

Notes

1. These descriptive statistics are based on the data described in Section 2.

2. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020.

3. The web page is https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide.

4. The web page is https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/.

5. The list of countries is as follows: Afghanistan, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Aruba, Australia, Austria, Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus, Belgium, Belize, Benin, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Cape Verde, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Côte d’Ivoire, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Estonia, Fiji, Finland, France, Gabon, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Guatemala, Guinea Bissau, Haiti, Honduras, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Latvia, Lebanon, Libya, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mali, Malta, Mauritius, Mexico, Moldova, Mongolia, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, North Macedonia, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Qatar, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Thailand, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago, Turkey, Uganda, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United Republic of Tanzania, United States of America, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe.

6. More details can be found at https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/.

7. The threshold values of 50% and 25% roughly correspond to the half of the maximum (across countries) changes in mobility as of May 2nd, 2020.