Opportunities and Challenges of China’s Economic and Political Development under the Third Term of Xi Leadership: A Viewpoint of India

Abstract

China’s economic and political development under the third term of Xi Jinping’s leadership presents both opportunities and challenges, viewed by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. While there are potential rooms for cooperation and diplomatic engagement between India and China, there are also significant disagreements related to border disputes, trade imbalances, and geopolitical tensions. Navigating these dynamics requires careful diplomacy, strategic arrangements, and a balance of interests among the leaders in both countries. However, the conflict between India and China is potentially and geopolitically inevitable because of several key factors inherent in the international system. Since both are rising powers, seeking to assert their influence and interests either regionally or globally; moreover, both states have strong nationalist sentiments that can be mobilized by ambitious leaders to justify assertive policies and provocative tongues, making it difficult to compromise on unresolved problems and easier to ignite a destructive blaze.

Keywords:

• Border disputes
• Chinese Dream
• Modi’s administration
• Xi leadership
• regional powers
• security dilemma
• India

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 For Beijing’s decision-makers and officials dealing with foreign affairs related to India, they also encounter similar dilemmas; namely, should China properly address the structural conflicts with India within the international system, or should China place more emphasis on the Modi’s administrations or the subsequent new leadership?.

2 For instance, China deliberately increased its military presence in disputed areas like Kashmir (territory occupied by Pakistan). Please see: Jacob (2008).

3 The Special Strategic and Global Partnership between India and Japan stands as a significant asset for India in its current strategic balancing against China, with the U.S. playing a mediating role. This partnership is rooted in the economic and trade complementarity between India and Japan, as well as their shared concerns regarding China under the rule of Xi Jinping. Please see: Jaishankar (2018).

4 Hence the need for a “hide and bide” policy akin to China’s after Modi’s successful reelection.

5 India is expected to surpass Japan and Germany and become the world’s third-largest economy in a few years later. This astonishing economic growth is largely attributed to the robust performance of India’s manufacturing sector. In recent years, during Modi’s tenure, there has been an increase in public spending on infrastructure and measures to incentivize domestic industries, aiming to promote the development of manufacturing industries such as mobile phones, electronic products, and semiconductors, with the hope of strengthening India’s competitiveness in the global market. Please see: Oi (2024).