War, Status Quo, and Peace in the South Caucasus: A Power Transition Perspective

Abstract

The regional wars in the Caucasus were frozen by the Russia’s initiatives in the early 1990s. Yet, given the developments in the last twenty years and the widespread dissatisfaction among the region’s people, one can argue that a just, equal, and stable peace has never been established in the region. Power transition theory puts forward a substantial perspective to analyze the regional peace in the Caucasus. The theory defines an international hierarchical order that can be symbolized as a power pyramid; peace is guaranteed when the dominant power preserves its preponderance against possible challengers dissatisfied with the status quo. The multiple hierarchy model applies this argument to regional subsystems, and defines regional hierarchies that function similarly to the international one, though they are open to external interventions. This article analyzes the status quo, peace and war in the South Caucasus from a power transition perspective. Three periods are defined: The establishment of the status quo (1991-1994), external involvement and regional competition period (1994-2008) and the aftermath of the Georgia war. Lastly future prospects will be discussed regarding Azerbaijan’s growing power against Armenia and the likelihood of renewed conflicts based on dissatisfaction with the status quo.

Keywords:

• Abkhazia
• multiple hierarchy model
• Nagorno-Karabakh
• power transition theory
• Russia

Notes

Yeşilada et al. (2005) apply a statistical model derived from power transition theory to measure the likelihood of conflict and integration between the six states in the Caucasus region. In another study by the same scholars, Israel is also included in the analysis (Yeşilada et al., 2008). Both studies found that Armenia-Georgia was the only dyad that showed a significant probability of conflict starting in 2015, but that the probability of war will increase in the dyads of Iran-Turkey, Russia-Iran, and Russia-Turkey after 2030, as these states’ capabilities will begin to converge. On the other side, Ko (2012) examined the Russia-Georgia conflict of 2008 from a power transition perspective. He concluded that Russia, as a rising great power, put forward a challenge against the dominant global power, expressing its dissatisfaction at the increasing U.S. military engagement in Eurasia.

Some reports claim that it was closed due to an unrelated explosion, an accident in Turkey (Mchedlishvili & Robinson, 2009).

All the GDP data used in this article come from the World Bank (2016). The purchasing power parity versions of GDPs are based on the 2011 international dollar. See http://data.worldbank.org.