Is parsimony a justified criterion in the assessment of possible phylogenetic reconstructions?

Abstract

Examination of the necessary conditions for parsimony analysis to be a reliable tool in the evaluation of alternative dendrograms shows that such conditions do not obtain in evolutionary events; moreover it is seen that simulations will show that the probability of identifying a correct phylogeny by parsimony analysis of a range of alternative cladograms is practically nil. It can be concluded that parsimony analysis cannot be used in evolutionary studies with any confidence and that, if it is renounced, as it appears necessary, current methods of cladistic analysis (be it framed according to classic hennigian principles or according to pattern cladistics) become unmanageable.

Keywords:

• Cladistics
• Parsimony
• Unreliability