Predicting the suitable habitats of Elwendia persica in the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR)

Abstract

Rare, Endemic and Threatened (RET) species with naturally small populations are always at high risk of extinction, especially during the climate change process. Climate change phenomena are also identified as a strong driver in the habitat shift of many medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs). The expected consequences of climate change are so dangerous that some key species can move to extinction. Therefore, the quest for suitable habitats of such species is taken as a challenge by various ecologists and conservationists. This study aims to predict the suitable habitats of Elwendia persica (Boiss.) Pimenov & Kljuykov, a threatened species for current and future climatic scenarios in the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR). The assessments for current and future climatic scenarios are accessed on the optimistic Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5). The MaxENT algorithm has helped to predict the suitable habitat of the species in the study area. The model has predicted 1.12%, 2.37%, and 0.98% of the total study area as highly suitable habitats in current (2000) and future (2050 and 2070) climatic scenarios. South-eastern facing slopes are considered as the most suitable areas for the species in the Indian Himalayan Region. Our results show that suitable habitats of the species may increase upto 2050, and subsequently decrease.

Keywords:

• Asia
• Bunium persicum
• climate change
• climatic scenarios
• ecological niche modelling
• MaxENT
• NW Himalaya

Acknowledgements

Authors are thankful to the Head, Department of Botany, University of Jammu, Jammu as well as Co-ordinator (University Grant Commission-Special Assistance Programme-DRS-II), Department of Botany, University of Jammu, Jammu for all the necessary facilities provided for completing this study. Authors are also obliged to Director of ISRO-IIRS, Dehradun, India, and Head, Forest, and Ecology Development ISRO-IIRS, Dehradun, India for providing the training with respect to ecological modelling. Dr. Puspinder Jamwal is also acknowledged for his technical help during the execution of the modelling program.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Funding

No funding was received for this study.