Why Russia will play by the rules in the Arctic

Abstracts/Résumés

President Vladimir Putin is no stranger to fiery rhetoric and has repeatedly asserted his country's intention to pursue its interests in the Arctic, including a recent announcement about the need to bolster its military presence there. Rather coincidentally, Canada recently announced that its pending claim to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf may assert Canadian sovereignty over the North Pole. This paper asserts that concern over Russia's intentions in the Arctic is overblown for three reasons. First, there is little evidence to suggest that Russia will not respect the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea adjudication processes to which it is a signatory. Second, undermining the UN and international law is not in Russia's interests due to the legitimacy and influence that Russia derives from them. Finally, Putin's Arctic rhetoric is likely aimed more at domestic audiences than it is at foreign ones and, in fact, it resembles the Government of Canada's own language. Ultimately, suspicions about Russia's intentions are Cold War derivatives and are not conducive to the coordinated management of the Arctic.

Le Président Vladimir Poutine connaît bien la rhétorique enflammée et il n'a jamais cessé d'affirmer l'intention de défendre les intérêts de son pays dans l'Arctique, en insistant notamment sur la nécessité d'un renforcement de la présence militaire russe dans la région. Presque par coïncidence, le Canada a récemment annoncé que sa revendication en attente de décision à la Commission des limites du plateau continental pourrait faire valoir la souveraineté canadienne dans le Pôle Nord.

Cet article soutient que les inquiétudes concernant les intentions de la Russie dans l'Arctique sont exagérées pour trois raisons. Premièrement, il existe peu d’éléments suggérant que la Russie ne respectera pas les procédures d'arbitrage de la Convention des Nations Unies sur le droit de la mer dont elle est signataire. Deuxièmement, porter atteinte aux Nations Unies et aux lois internationales n'est pas dans l'intérêt de la Russie, en raison de la légitimité et de l'influence qu'elle en tire. Enfin, la rhétorique de Poutine sur l'Arctique vise plus probablement le public russe que le public étranger et, de fait, rappelle le langage du gouvernement canadien lui-même. En fin de compte, les soupçons sur les intentions de la Russie sont des dérivés de la Guerre froide et ne sont pas propices à une gestion coordonnée de l'Arctique.

Keywords:

• Russia
• foreign policy
• Arctic sovereignty
• Canada

Acknowledgments

The author wishes to thank three anonymous reviewers for their comments on an earlier draft of this paper. A previous version of this article was presented to the Association for Canadian Studies in the United States (ACSUS) Biennial Convention in Tampa, Florida, 19–23 November 2013.

Notes

1. Russia-United States relations underwent a “reset” under the Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev presidencies in 2009. The reset followed years of deterioration under presidents Putin and George W. Bush. The warming of relations enabled such objectives as the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), and logistical cooperation in Afghanistan stabilization efforts, to name a few.

2. Edward Snowden is a former US National Security Agency (NSA) contractor who revealed classified information to the media about United States surveillance programs. Charged with espionage by the American government, Snowden fled the country and has been granted asylum in Russia.

3. UArctic is a consortium of Northern universities and colleges focused on issues relating to the circumpolar North.

4. Sweden and Finland, while not members of NATO, are members of NATO's Partnership for Peace.

5. Sovereignty over Hans Island is claimed jointly by Denmark and Canada.

6. Russia and Norway signed a 2010 border treaty that settled a decades-long dispute over Barents Sea boundaries.

7. In 2005, a Russian fishing trawler failed to yield to the authority of the Norwegian coast guard when it was illegally fishing within Norway's sovereign waters. The incident was resolved diplomatically.

8. RIAC is a high-level non-profit body of foreign policy experts linked to the Kremlin through a presidential decree.

9. The Northwest Passage is a sea route through the Arctic Ocean that Canada claims as its internal waters because of its proximity to Canada's Arctic Archipelago. Melting ice has rendered this pathway increasingly navigable and of greater interest to other nations. The United States and Canada dispute the amount of control that Canada wishes to exert in the Passage.

10. For example, Russia and Norway have settled the Svalbard Islands, Canada and Denmark are working on splitting Hand Island and all are collaborating on search and rescue, regulating commercial fishing and jointly addressing oil spills (Borgerson 2013).