Sino-Canadian relations in the age of Justin Trudeau

ABSTRACT

The ongoing Huawei dispute has led Canadian commentators to proclaim the death of Justin Trudeau’s China strategy. This paper takes a nuanced look at Sino-Canadian relations since 2015, arguing that Ottawa has not adopted a policy of unconstrained engagement, but rather has taken a harder line toward Beijing than traditionally appreciated. The paper proposes explanations for the Liberal government’s harder line: (1) domestic Canadian wariness toward China, (2) Xi’s more aggressive vision of Chinese foreign policy, and (3) Trump’s election and the consequent devolution in Sino-American relations. Finally, the paper suggests that in light of these factors, Canadian policymakers will need to reshape Ottawa’s China strategy.

RÉSUMÉ

La dispute en cours autour de Huawei a conduit les commentateurs canadiens à proclamer la mort de la stratégie de Justin Trudeau vis-à-vis de la Chine. Cet article porte un regard nuancé sur les relations sino-canadiennes depuis 2015, en faisant valoir que Ottawa n'a pas adopté une politique d'engagement libre de contraintes, mais plutôt une ligne plus dure envers Beijing que celle traditionnellement appréciée. L'article propose des explications de cette position plus dure du gouvernement libéral : (1) une méfiance des Canadiens vis-à-vis de la Chine, (2) la vision plus agressive du Président Xi sur la politique étrangère chinoise, et (3) l'élection de Trump et la dévolution des relations sino-américaines qui en découle. Enfin, il suggère qu'à la lumière de ces facteurs, les décideurs politiques canadiens devront redéfinir la stratégie d'Ottawa envers la Chine.

KEYWORDS:

• Sino-Canadian relations
• Canadian foreign policy
• Justin Trudeau
• China strategy
• engagement

Acknowledgements

The author thanks Robert Williams, Susan Thornton, Paul Gewirtz, and the rest of the team at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center for their editorial advice and mentorship.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author. I am currently working as a summer student for Erin O'Toole, Shadow Minister of Foreign Affairs. I wrote this paper prior to commencing work for MP O'Toole.

Notes on contributor

Preston Lim received his Bachelor’s in Near Eastern Studies from Princeton University and his Master’s in Global Affairs from Tsinghua University, where he studied as a Schwarzman Scholar. He writes on strategic affairs and Chinese foreign policy.

Correction Statement

This article has been republished with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.