An Integrated Human–Computer System for Controlling Interstate Disputes

Abstract

In this paper we develop a scientific approach to control intercountry conflict. This system makes use of a neural network and a feedback control approach. It was found that by controlling the four controllable inputs: Democracy, Dependency, Allies and Capability simultaneously, all the predicted dispute outcomes could be avoided. Furthermore, it was observed that controlling a single input Dependency or Capability also avoids all the predicted conflicts. When the influence of each input variable on conflict is assessed, Dependency, Capability, and Democracy emerge as key variables that influence conflict.

Key Words:

• Artificial intelligence
• control
• decision-support systems
• interstate conflitc

Additional information

Notes on contributors

T. Marwala

Tshilidzi Marwala is the Chair of Systems Engineering at the University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa. He holds a Bachelor of ScienceinMechanical Engineering (Magna Cum Laude) from Case Western Reserve University, Master of Engineering from the University of Pretoria, Ph.D. in Engineering from University of Cambridge and attended a Program for Leadership Development at Harvard Business School. He was previously a postdoctoral research associate at the Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, was a visiting fellow at Harvard University and Wolfson College, Cambridge and worked as an executive at SABMiller in Johannesburg. He has published two books, edited a conference proceeding and published over 150 papers in journals, proceedings and book chapters, has supervised 30 master and Ph.D. theses and holds two patents. He is the associate editor of the International Journal of Systems Science and a Senior Member of the IEEE.

M. Lagazio

Monica Lagazio holds a Ph.D. in Politics and Artificial Intelligence from Nottingham University and an M.A. in Politics from the University of London. At the present she is leading the customer intelligence offering within Mouchel Management Consulting. Previously, she was Lecturer in Politics at the University of the Witwatersrand and University of Kent at Canterbury as a well as Research Fellow at Yale University. She was also leading the Segmentation and Analytics offering within Accenture. She has also presented papers in several international conferences and provided consulting services to USAID and the Developmental Bank of Southern Africa as well as to global organizations.

T. Tettey

Thando Tettey graduated at the University of the Witwatersrand with an M.Sc. (Cum Laude) in Electrical Engineering in 2007. His Masters Thesis titled “A computational intelligence approach to modelling interstate conflict: Conflict and causal interpretations”, focused on interpreting black box models which map complex relationships. In the same year of his graduation, he proceeded to work in the Defence Industry on the design of mission critical embedded software for aircraft. There he contributed to the successful Lead in fighter trainer (LIFT) program for the HAWK Aircraft, which is a record breaking project for the South African Defense Industry. He then moved on to work as a Technical Analyst for Cyest Corporation a company which focuses on the design, development and implementation of advanced decision support, business intelligence and enterprise resource management software solutions. He has published 7 refereed papers.