Family Formation and Dissolution During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence From South Korea

ABSTRACT

This study explores the short-term effects of COVID-19 on marriage and divorce rates in Korea. We document a 9.6–13.9% reduction in the provincial crude marriage rate in March-June 2020 after the surge in COVID-19 cases. On top of this overall decline, a one-unit increase in the number of confirmed cases per 1,000 people in a given province decreased the marriage rate by 3.8–6.2%. The crude divorce rate decreases by 3.2–7.1% after the surge of COVID-19. Our results imply that the decline in marriage rates due to COVID-19 can lead to a significant decrease in fertility rates in the near future.

KEYWORDS:

• COVID-19
• marriage
• divorce
• social disruption
• fertility
• South Korea

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author. We have no conflicts of interest to disclose.

Notes

1 The distinctive wedding culture in South Korea can further increase the COVID-19 pandemic's negative impact on marriage. In South Korea, the wedding culture is such that wedding attendees give monetary gifts to the bride and groom. Some wedding couples and their families may delay weddings in light of the expected reduction in wedding revenue due to the decrease in the number of attendees and the amount of the monetary gifts paid per attendee in the context of COVID-19.

2 The vital statistics microdata are currently available up to 2019. We use monthly regional aggregate data provided by the Korean Statistical Information Service.

3 In fact, there are many newspaper reports that disputes between the wedding service and newlyweds have increased significantly since the outbreak of COVID-19.