Decision support for traffic safety: case of rear-end collision modelling

ABSTRACT

This paper presents the decision problem of selecting a collision-warning activation algorithm for Rear-End Collision Alert Signal (RECAS) systems installed in motorcycles and other powered two-wheelers. Using Agent-Based Modelling, Discrete Event Simulation and System Dynamics, we have developed a hybrid simulation model of three scenarios of rear-end collisions to measure the performance of several algorithms found in the literature. The best-performing algorithm, by Hirst & Graham, has reduced the probability of collisions on average by 31.21% in comparison with the baseline scenario of using a standard brake light. Using this algorithm also resulted in up to 11.20% reduction in the estimated severity of injuries when a rear-end collision was not averted. As the Hirst & Graham algorithm was the most effective in all the tested emergency braking scenarios and across all the tested speed limits, we recommend this algorithm to be used in RECAS systems in powered two-wheelers.

KEYWORDS:

• Traffic safety
• powered two-wheeler safety
• road traffic simulation
• simulation modelling
• collision-warning activation algorithms

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

The work was supported by the Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency [Research program No. P1-0383, Complex networks].