The Predictive Validity of Risk Assessment Approaches for Young Australian Offenders

Abstract

Validation literature on the predictive ability of North American youth violence risk assessment inventories is developing across international settings. Yet no information exists on the utility of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV),]and little research has been conducted on the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) across Australian young offender populations. The current study investigated the validity of the risk instruments on 213 young people in detention in Victoria, Australia. Findings indicated moderate to strong predictive accuracy for re-offence outcomes across the three inventories for the total sample and for males. The SAVRY was also able to identify the strength of protective factors for young female offenders. The inventories appear to be suitable prediction aides in the Australian youth justice context although further research is required to ascertain their applicability to Australian young female offenders.

Key words:

• gender
• juvenile offending
• recidivism
• risk assessment
• violence risk instruments
• youth violence