The Short- to Medium-Term Predictive Validity of Static and Dynamic Risk-of-Violence Measures in Medium- to Low-Secure Forensic and Civil Inpatients

Abstract

The prediction and subsequent management of aggression by psychiatric inpatients is a crucial role of the mental health professional. This retrospective cohort study examines the predictive validity of 10 static and dynamic risk-of-violence measures and subscales in 37 forensic and 37 civil inpatients residing in a medium- to-low security psychiatric facility for a period of up to 6 months. Retrospective file records were sourced to conduct an AUC analysis of the ROC curve for short- and medium-term follow-up periods. The hypothesis that dynamic measures would be better predictors than static measures over the short term was supported. Albeit to a lesser extent, dynamic measures were still better predictors than static measures over the medium term. This result was seen in both civil and forensic groups. Three previously untested measures were found to predict aggression within the sample. It is recommended that mental health services employ the use of dynamic measures when making short-term risk-of-violence predictions for civil and/or forensic inpatients.

Key words:

• civil
• dynamic
• forensic
• risk
• short term
• static
• violence

Declaration of Interest

The authors report no declarations of interest

Geolocation Information

Newcastle and Lake Macquarie, NSW, Australia