The Transnistria Problem and the Crisis in Ukraine: Analysis from the Perspective of the Security Dilemma Argument

Abstract

Transnistria, an unrecognized state within the borders of the Republic of Moldova, has been in a precarious situation following the Ukrainian crisis, characterized by the annexation of Crimea by the Russia Federation and the internal conflict in eastern Ukraine. This has resulted in Ukraine and Moldova adopting stringent policies against Transnistria, thereby intensifying its already challenging situation. The main concern derives from the fear that Russia might use Transnistria as a base for launching future “hybrid warfare” against Moldova and Ukraine. Thus, it can be said that the current challenging situation in Transnistria is linked to the overall Ukrainian crisis and is a consequence of security concerns shared by Ukraine and Moldova. In addition, the new situation after the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine complicated conditions in Transnistria. Now, the Moldovan government has an opportunity to reintegrate Transnistria, independent of any issues related to the EU membership issue. On the other hand, Russia’s basic policy toward Transnistria has not changed, although Transnistria has requested annexation by Russia many times, so the status quo seems to continue. This composition has continued in the former USSR space because Russia has been using unrecognized states to maintain its “sphere of interest.” This situation can be explained by the “security dilemma” argument.

Notes

1 According to the 2004 census, the ethnic balance of Transnistria is as follows: Moldovan 31.9%, Ukrainian 28.8%, Russian 30.4%.

2 Ukraine and Moldova applied for EU membership immediately after the start of Russia’s invasion in 2022 and were recognized as “candidate states” in June 2022. Furthermore, it has been decided that accession negotiations will begin in December 2023. However, Moldova has never expressed a desire to join NATO.

3 Many weapons and military equipment including Uranimu-235 have been disappeared from Transnistria, and multiple criminal groups have been involved in the black market (Gheorghe 2014).

4 Svensson and Fjellander analyzed the news contents about the 2014 Odesa clashes using two major Russian media and two major US media, and they found that US media kept the neutrality, although the media biases were so serious concerning this incident (Svensson and Fjellander 2014).

5 This is the opinion in 2014. In fact, Russia annexed more territories, parts of two southern Ukrainian oblasts, and two eastern oblasts in 2022.

6 Transnistria had expressed its strong favor to be annexed by Russia immediately after Russia recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 2008.

7 DETEK is Ukraine’s largest energy group with assets in coal mining, electricity generation and distribution, and alternative energy and gas production (HP: http://www.dtek.com/en/about/ Accessed on October 10, 2017).

8 Russia has deployed about 2,000 troops in Transnistria since the 1992 ceasefire of Transnistrian conflict. In 1999, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) adopted a resolution that Russian army should withdraw from Georgia and Moldova, and in 2008, NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly also adopted a resolution urging Russia to “withdraw its illegal military presence from the Transnistrian region of Moldova in the nearest future.” However, Russian army did not leave Transnistria, although Russia announced it would withdraw its troops once the weapons depots of the 14th Army were liquidated in 2016.

9 For details about these cases, see “The ex-Transnistrian leader, Evgheni Shevchuk, charged in 5 criminal cases,” Crime Moldova, June 29, 2017, https://en.crimemoldova.com/news/politics/the-ex-transnistrian-leader-evgheni-shevchuk-charged-in-5-criminal-cases/; and “Eks-Prezident Evgenii Shevchuk figuriruet v kachestve obvinyaemogo po pyati ugolovnym delam [Ex-President Evgenii Shevchuk figures in the list of those accused of having committed murder]” (Russian), Novosti Pridnestrov’ya website, June 28, 2017 (Accessed on July 7, 2019).

10 Transnistrian most prominent opposition politician, Oleg Khorzhan, who was close to Shevchuk before, did not leave Transnistria and continued the political activities then was arrested and sentenced to four and a half years. After he completed the imprisonment, he was killed in 2023 in an incident that is full of mystery. (Ceban 2023b).

11 In the realist theory, the condition of anarchy makes security the first concern of states (Posen 1993).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Hirose Yoko

Hirose Yoko is professor in the Faculty of Policy Management, Keio University (2016 to present). Her previous posts include Research Fellow, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) (2001-02); Full-time Lecturer, Faculty of Policy Studies, Keio University (2002-05); Full-time Lecturer, Department of English for Peacebuilding and Conflict Prevention, Graduate School of Area Studies (2005-07) and Associate Professor (2007-08), Tokyo University of Foreign Studies; Associate Professor, School of International Relations, University of Shizuoka Prefecture (2008-10); Associate Professor, Faculty of Policy Studies, Keio University (2010-16). From 2016 to the present, she has served on a number of government committees, including as an advisor to Japan’s National Security Secretariat (NSS) from 2018 to 2020.

Professor Hirose’s specialties include international politics and regional studies, with an in-depth focus on the former Soviet Union as her particular area of expertise.

She has been a United Nations University Akino Fellow in Azerbaijan (2000-01); a visiting scholar at the Harriman Institute, Columbia University, USA (2013-14); a visiting scholar at the Aleksanteri Institute, University of Helsinki, Finland (2017-18); and a visiting scholar for the “Strategic Japan” project, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), USA (2018).

She is the author of Crossroads of Caucasian International Relations (2008, Shueisha Shinsho), which won the 25th special prize for Asia-Pacific studies from the Asian Affairs Research Council of Japan, as well as numerous other books. Recently published works include Unrecognized States and the World without Hegemony (2014, NHK Books) and Hybrid Warfare: Russia’s New National Strategy (Kodansha Shinsho, 2021), and others.