Back to the future? Franco-German bilateralism in Europe's post-Brexit union

ABSTRACT

What are the consequences and implications of Brexit on the nature and character of Franco-German ‘embedded bilateralism’ in Europe, the relative influence of Berlin and Paris in EU policymaking, and the EU's future trajectory more generally? Brexit brings into sharper relief three basic future scenarios for the EU: (1) German hegemony; (2) the decline of the European project; and (3) a rejuvenated Franco-German tandem at the union's centre – what we call ‘back to the future’. Which of these scenarios prevails will depend on the interaction of Brexit with other developments, most notably (1) the overall strengthening of Germany's relative standing, and (2) France's ability to overcome its economic and societal stasis with serious reforms. Though each of the three scenarios is possible, this paper holds that ‘back to the future’ is the most likely and plausible. Brexit thus might even further accentuate the historically influential Franco-German relationship, not least in union-level policy domains, such as security and defense, in which Britain has hitherto played a significant role.

KEYWORDS:

• Brexit
• European integration trajectories
• France
• Franco-German bilateralism
• Germany
• scenarios

Acknowledgments

This paper has benefited from presentations at the 113th Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association (APSA) in San Francisco, 31 August-3 September 2017; the UACES 47th Annual Conference in Krakow, 4–6 September 2017; and the Institut für europäische Integrationsforschung at the University of Vienna. For comments on earlier versions of this article, we thank Thomas Angerer, Martin Bull, Erik Jones, Jonathan Joseph, Richard Maher, Monika Mühlböck, Claire Thirriot-Kwant, and three anonymous reviewers. For valuable editorial support, we thank Sarah Tarrow. The usual disclaimer applies.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes on contributors

Ulrich Krotz holds the Chair in International Relations, Department of Social and Political Sciences and Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute. He is also Director of the EUI's programme on Europe in the World.

Joachim Schild is Professor of Political Science/Comparative Politics at Trier University, Germany.

ORCID

Joachim Schild https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6149-8007

Notes

1 Thus viewed, Brexit does not represent in and of itself a ‘genetic moment’ in Capoccia and Kelemen’s (2007; quote from 342) take on path dependence.

2 For a methodological outline informing our employment of scenarios, including their relevance for policy, see, for example, Weber 1996.

3 The exact shape or form of German regional hegemony would be important – whether a Kindlebergerian model, stressing the burdens and responsibilities of leadership and regional public goods provision, or one with the harder edges of regional domination of an offensive realist sort. For different views (and types) of hegemony, see Clark 2011; Kindleberger 1973; Mearsheimer 2001. On German hegemony and its issues, note Bulmer and Paterson 2013; Paterson 2011; Schönberger 2012.

4 The best theoretically informed work on possible EU disintegration or decline to date includes Schimmelfennig 2018; Vollaard 2014; Webber 2014. For a debate on the sources and future prospects of European integration, see Krotz and Maher et al. 2012.

5 On the impact of Brexit on European financial market integration and regulation, see Howarth and Quaglia 2018.

6 Data from Eurostat (1 January 2016).

7 On France–Germany in these areas over the past half century and today, see Krotz and Schild 2013, chapter 9; Krotz and Wolf 2018. On the fitful rise of EU foreign and security policy from the perspective of general international relations theory, see Krotz and Maher 2011; for consideration of specific political factors propelling or undermining the EU's emergence as a full political actor in international affairs, see Krotz 2009.

8 For a cautious assessment, see Deubner 2018.