Use of backcasting to integrate indicators with principles of sustainability

Abstract

There are innumerable indicators that can be used to evaluate sustainable development and these can serve to inform and guide progress. However, they are often selected without considering their effect on each other and the achievement of sustainability. Indeed, two decades after the definition of sustainable development, there is still little agreement on principles of sustainability, nor the indicators to represent them. Part of the difficulty lies in working from a present unsustainable state to an uncertain future horizon. An alternative is to apply backcasting, which starts from a desired outcome and develops scenarios for achieving it. This paper presents a framework of sustainability principles to help operationalize indicators and increase their relevance. It outlines how this can be done using backcasting to evaluate existing indicators or to select those that relate positively to the framework principles. Although there is no formula for achieving sustainability, this process provides a format for discussion in selecting indicators and in ensuring their continued relevance to sustainable development progress.

Keywords:

• frameworks
• targets
• key indicators
• quality of life
• first-order principle
• heterarchical