Measuring future paths of alternative sustainability indicators: an assessment of IPCC SRES scenarios

Abstract

This study measures various indicators for sustainability in this century for four scenarios of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a comparable assessment of the scenarios. We assessed the scenarios using a model of Ramsey-type mainframe with cost models for fuel and non-fuel mineral resources, biomass and foods, and an environmental externality. The existing studies have not assessed these SRES scenarios for sustainability, but only for climate change and its policy under the scenarios using CO₂ emissions and shadow prices as indicators. The significant contributions of this paper are an assessment of the scenarios using the measured future paths of various sustainability indicators and revealing that the SRES-B1 scenario is the most favorable from a sustainability perspective. The findings of this study contribute to further empirical analysis of the economics of sustainability and climate policy assessments.

Keywords:

• sustainable development
• genuine savings (GS)
• resources productivity (Factor 4)
• eco-efficiency
• environmental space (Factor 10)
• carrying capacity (HANPP)
• IPCC-SRES

Notes

1. Net primary production means the accumulation of biomass in plants (Simpson et al. 2005). Primary production is the production of organic compounds from atmospheric or aquatic carbon dioxide. It may occur through the process of photosynthesis, using light as a source of energy, or through chemosynthesis, using the oxidation or reduction of chemical compounds as a source of energy (Wikipedia).

2. Oil, gas, coal, uranium.

3. Iron ore, bauxite, copper, zinc, lead, limestone.

4. Rice, corn, wheat, pork, chicken, mutton, beef.

5. Logs, wood pulp, timber/board, paper.

6. Global warming, local air pollution, trans-boundary acidification, ozone layer depletion, extraction and disposal of mineral resources, human appropriation of net primary productivity (HANPP), and the extinction risk to biodiversity caused by LU and LUC.

7. North America (NAMR), West Europe (WEUR), Japan (JAPN), Oceania (OCEA), China (CPAS), East-South Asia (including India) (SEAS), the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Sub-Sahara Africa (SSAF), Latin America (LAMR), and the former Soviet Union and East Europe (FSEE). The results obtained are presented by OECD (North America, West Europe, Japan, and Oceana) and non-OECD (remainder of the six regions).