The impacts of COVID-19 and climate change on smallholders through the lens of SDGs; and ways to keep smallholders on 2030 agenda

ABSTRACT

This paper set out to show the impacts of COVID-19 and climate change on smallholders through the lens of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and ways to keep smallholders on the 2030 agenda. Descriptive statistical analysis of quantitative secondary data is applied to investigate the issues in question across world regions. Increasing energy and food demand have triggered greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with effects on the environment, socio-economic and related sectors. If unchecked, climate change will jeopardize progress towards SDGs’ agenda of ending hunger and poverty by 2030. COVID-19 exacerbates the underlying climate change impacts compromising food and water security. The widespread famines of Biblical proportions caused by COVID-19 effects are likely to cause more deaths than the virus. Improvement of water availability and food production is crucial to ending hunger and poverty. There is a need to strengthen smallholders’ adaptation and mitigation capacity through cooperatives’ platforms thereby reach out to smallholders who are the furthest first. International cooperation is urgent to support smallholders’ adaptation of climate-smart agriculture to reduce GHG emissions thereby subdue climate impacts resulting in higher productivity, food security, poverty reduction and sustainable development. Cooperatives need support to facilitate adaptation and mitigation by applying site-specific technology to local needs and possibilities.

KEYWORDS:

• COVID-19 impacts
• climate change impacts
• sustainable development goals
• smallholders
• cooperatives
• adaptation and mitigation

1. Introduction

Most of the world’s poor living in developing countries are smallholders managing 53% of the agricultural land and play a significant role in global food production (Graeub et al. 2016). In this paper, smallholders are small-scale farmers, pastoralists, forest keepers and fishers who manage farm size ranging from less than one hectare to 10 hectares, predominantly rely on family labor and the main source of income is derived from agricultural operations (FAO. 2012). Smallholders are more vulnerable to climate change hazards like flooding, droughts, excessive heat conditions since they largely live in environmentally fragile and remote locations including floodplains, hillsides, arid and semi-arid areas (IFPRI, 2009). Moreover, smallholders depend heavily on rainfed agriculture for they lack access to technical assistance, credit, markets, education, or government support to facilitate adaptation to climate change or to seek alternative livelihoods (Morton 2007). These challenges have left smallholders more vulnerable, food insecure and less able to escape poverty (IFAD and UNEP 2013). Consequently, smallholders’ prevailing conditions are likely to derail the Sustainable Development Goals’ target of leaving no one behind worldwide, with the endeavor to reach the furthest behind first. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were put into place to eradicate poverty and attain sustainable development by 2030 (UN General Assembly 2015).

The SDGs carry forward the unfinished agenda of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), thus poverty in its various dimensions that was at the centre of MDGs (UN. 2009. MDG Report 2009) remains at the centre of SDGs. Given that this paper aims to examine the impacts of COVID-19 and climate change on smallholders through the lens of SDGs and how to keep smallholders on the 2030 agenda, we choose to investigate the goals that best relate to smallholders’ food insecurity and poverty issues. Therefore, the SDGs in question are Goal 1 on the eradication of poverty, by targeting (Target 1.5) to build the capacity of the poor in responding to climatic, economic, social, and environmental shocks and calamities. Goal 2 on eliminating hunger, by facilitating (Target 2.1) access for everybody, particularly the poor and infants to safe, nutritious and adequate food at all times.

Water resources are determinant in achieving all core SDGs including to end poverty, hunger, ill-health, and overall sustainable economic development. Therefore, we investigate Goal 6 that focuses on making sure that all people have access to adequate safe water and proper sanitation by targeting (Target 6.4) to minimize the number of people suffering from water scarcity. Goal 13 compels measures to tackle climate change and its effects. Increasing smallholders’ resilience and strengthening food security is crucial to mitigating the impacts of climate change, on both the environment and on human livelihoods. This can be effectuated by improving smallholders’ education, awareness-raising, and boost institutional capacity on climate change impacts, mitigation, and adaptation (Target 13:1 and 3).

How can smallholders who mostly live-in remote areas and happen to be the furthest behind be reached? Smallholders have limited ability to overcome transaction costs, scale-up production and compete with largescale farms. These limitations have motivated smallholders to form farmer organizations (agricultural cooperatives) to enable them to access productive resources through economies of scale conducive to increase profitability and productivity (2013.; IFAD 2019;). A cooperative is defined as ‘an autonomous association of persons united voluntarily to meet their common economic, social, and cultural needs and aspirations through a jointly-owned and democratically-controlled enterprise’ (ICA, 2015, p. 2).

Agricultural cooperatives are owned and financed by their members to provide services at an economical cost. Cooperatives are managed by members with individual members having equal representation in voting, profits are distributed among the members based on their contribution to the cooperative. Cooperatives’ principles including objectives and goals, democratic self-ownership, leadership and management, impartiality, open-membership, autonomous and sharing of profits equally between members make cooperatives different from other business enterprises (Boadu 2016).

Agricultural cooperatives serve their members through (a) supply cooperatives that provide farm input services like seeds, fertiliser, machinery (b) marketing cooperatives that provide services such as transportation, packaging, distribution, and marketing of farm produce (c) credit cooperatives supply members with credit to facilitate farming activities (2013.; Qu et al. 2020;). Cooperatives are suitable pathways to reach the extremely poor at the grass-root level, for a majority of smallholders are members of farmer groups. Cooperatives by their definition are a possible channel to promote local adaptation and mitigation measures. Cooperatives can link up rural communities with higher scale public and private institutions including governments, development agencies and agribusiness companies.

The ongoing studies including (Morton 2007; Ochieng et al. 2016; Harvey et al. 2018) on climate change impacts on smallholders tend to discuss issues such as projections of future impacts from modelling studies, at a variety of geographical scales and focus on key smallholder crops. There is a minimal discussion that simultaneously engages with (a) poverty, hunger, and water scarcity as consequences of climate change. (b) how to reach smallholders who are the furthest behind first, by using the platform of farmer organizations. This paper takes up these issues through the lens of SDGs, by examining water issues since water is critical to improving food production by smallholders, to end hunger and reduce poverty. Furthermore, the paper discusses that adaptation and mitigation strategies among smallholders are more effective through the channel of cooperatives since smallholders in remote areas are mostly members of farmer groups.

This paper is significant; it points to suggestive impacts of COVID-19 since scientific data are yet to be established; however, COVID-19 effects exacerbate climate’s impacts on smallholders. The paper applies the prioritization approach and social inclusion by pointing out that climate change ought to be addressed alongside poverty, hunger, and water scarcity, smallholders should be the focal point in climate change strategies. Smallholders are not only the most vulnerable to climate change, but also play a significant role in food production leading to food security, reduced percentages of malnutrition, child mortality and poverty levels. We reinforce cooperatives as a channel to transmit technology tailored to meet local needs. We contribute to region-specific solutions through our indication of the characteristics of smallholders in respective regions (Table 3). Therefore, the paper informs policymakers of site-specific regional needs of smallholders who are furthest behind. Pertinent policies can enhance smallholders’ ability to adapt, mitigate, leading to higher productivity.

Table 1. Food exports and imports, food production index and population density of world regions

Region	Year	Food exports (% of merch. exports)	Food imports (% of merch. imports)	Food prod. index (2004–2006 = 100)	Pop. density (people per sq. km land area)
Latin Amer. & Caribbean	1980	30.34	13.06	46.65	17.95
	1990	24.48	11.34	59.59	22.01
	2000	19.06	7.53	82.76	25.99
	2010	20.28	7.46	117.84	29.44
	2015	25.50	7.21		31.05
Sub-Saharan Africa	1980			46.69	18.04
	1990			60.59	23.98
	2000	14.22	12.87	83.64	31.32
	2010	12.40	11.76	120.30	40.91
	2018	12.19	12.01		50.76
Middle East & N. Africa	1980		15.75	37.29	16.45
	1990			59.42	22.64
	2000	1.85	15.28	81.68	28.09
	2010	3.16	14.33	109.17	34.38
	2015	3.81	12.56		37.94
East Asia & Pacific	1980			36.00	63.90
	1990	9.15	8.49	55.18	74.68
	2000	5.18	5.86	85.04	83.96
	2010	4.98	5.80	117.93	90.49
	2015	6.22	7.25		93.61
South Asia	1980	27.28	10.58	47.49	188.42
	1990	15.58	6.10	68.56	237.14
	2000	12.51	6.64	90.87	291.40
	2010	9.34	6.22	122.03	343.45
	2015	12.18	7.55		366.63

Source: World Development Indicators (World Bank 2020).

Table 2. Percentage of the population employed in agriculture, undernourishment & resilience strategies

	Sub Saharan Africa	Middle East & North Africa	Latin America & Caribbean	East Asia & Pacific	South Asia
Pop. in areas elevation is below 5 meters (% of total pop.)	4	8	7	10	13
Prevalence of severe food insecurity in the population (%)	31	5	9	4	12
Prevalence of underweight (% of children under 5)	21	8	7	19	34
Rural pop. in area elevation is below 5 meters (% of total pop.)	2	3	2	7	12
Rural land area elevation below 5 meters (% of total land area)	2	2	4	8	12
Employ. in agri. (% of total employment)	52	15	17	32	47
Employ. in agr. male (% of male employment)	51	14	23	34	42
Employ. in agr. female (% of female employment)	53	17	9	30	58
Agr. forestry, and fishing, value added (annual % growth)	3	3	2	1	4
Agricultural irrigated land (% of total agricultural land)	4	14	5	17	32
Fertilizer consumption (% of fertilizer production)	233	144	2813	740	706

Source: World Development Indicators (World Bank 2020).

Table 3. Characteristics of smallholders across the globe in terms of a few selected variables

	SSA	Asia	L. Ameri. & Carib.	Europe & C Asia
% households using improved seeds	29.25	24.00	-	-
% of households recipient of extension services	20.33	8.03	3.70	28.00
% of households owning telephone lines	5.77	1.30	6.13	8.40
% households buying ag. inputs via informal channels	79.63	25.00	15.00	7.00
% of households using motorized equipment	7.33	24.00	30.67	6.80
Irrigation (% of land)	2.70	48.00	0.50	65.95
Amount of food produced (const. 2009 Int. $)	618	891	1213	1291
Value of food production per ha (const. 2009 Int. $)	1186	3279	1425	7350
% households selling crops through informal channels	77.13	99.00	-	44.00
% of credit beneficiary households	14.38	28.85	19.33	1.35
% of agricultural production sold	24.25	29.67	32.25	15.00
% of expenditure for inputs on value of production	20.00	29.50	16.00	19.00
Credit (const. 2009 Int. $)	461	834	1484	-
Distance of household from road (km)	16.04	10.13	27.50	5.00
% of income from crop production	49.59	39.80	24.50	30.00
% of income from on farm income	58.69	51.80	31.50	44.50
Poverty rate	49.25	42.00	72.50	38.50
Years of education of the household head	4.28	4.44	3.73	8.70
Household size	5.31	4.90	5.15	5.65
Average farm size (ha)	1.12	0.51	3.05	0.31
Maximum farm size (ha)	2.76	1.47	20.81	0.97

Source: Smallholders Data Portrait, FAO (2018). Note: poverty rate is the percentage of the population living below national poverty lines based on consumption expenditure and income levels.

The rest of this paper is organized as follows: section 1.1 is on data and descriptive statistics. Section 2 describes the impacts of COVID-19 and climate change. Section 3 presents the adaptation and mitigation capacity of smallholders. The final section (4) presents conclusions.

1.1 Data and descriptive statistics

The paper follows World Bank (2010); DFID (Department of International Development, UK) (1999) in investigating the impacts of climate change on smallholders, we expand on their work by finding solutions to improve the livelihoods of smallholders through the platform of cooperatives. Box 1 indicates the pathway from climate change and COVID-19 impacts with negative impacts on rainfed agriculture leading to low crop yields, malnutrition, poverty. Whereas agricultural cooperatives strengthen smallholders’ resilience through the facilitation of access to productive resources thereby increasing crop yields, food security, better nutritional status and higher income thus embarking smallholders on SDGs 2030 agenda.

Source: Augmented from (DFID (Department of International Development, UK) 1999; World Bank 2010).

Since climate change will affect developing countries more than rich ones, the paper investigates the impacts of climate change in the following regions: Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Small Island Developing States. The appropriate data to meet our research aims are from the World Development Indicators – World Bank and the Data Portrait of Small Family Farms are from FAO.

We chose World bank and FAO data sources because (a) their data are broadly representative of the regions under observation (b) these agencies gather data from internationally renowned sources including national statistical agencies, World Bank country departments and customs services that have applied household survey methods for data collection. (c) the aggregation is based on the World Bank harmonised dataset (adjusted) thereby enabling a comparison to some extent. (d) the Data Portrait of Small Family Farms developed by FAO presents standardised measures of inputs, production, and sociodemographic characteristics of smallholders worldwide. FAO uses nationally representative household surveys covering rural and urban areas (Squarcina 2017).

However, despite data harmonisation, regional comparisons should be done with caution given that the approximations are based on different reporting practices and denote different years which may cause data inconsistencies. Data on selected consequences of climate change are from the World Bank (World Development indicators). World regional data are based on the World Bank’s aggregation of countries within a region, the aggregates are based on the largest available set of data, due to missing data the aggregates should be handled as estimations of average values.

Sustainable Development Goal 13 calls for climate action for everyone to combat climate change and its impacts. The use of appropriate analytical, communication and data visualization methods in a format that is useful for each intended audience is essential in climate change issues. Therefore, data are analyzed using quantitative descriptive methods in investigating climate change impacts and potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. Data is represented by average values utilizing tables and graphs.

Annual freshwater withdrawals refer to total water withdrawals excluding evaporation losses from storage basins. Withdrawals for agriculture imply total withdrawals for irrigation and livestock production. While withdrawals for direct industrial use include cooling thermoelectric plants, whereas withdrawals for domestic use include homes, municipal, public, and commercial establishments. Data are for the latest year available for 1987–2002. The data on freshwater resources are approximations of runoff into rivers and recharge of groundwater.

Cereal yield is measured in kilograms per hectare of harvested land, the data on cereal are on dry grain only including wheat, maize, rice, barley, oats, rye, millet, sorghum, buckwheat, and mixed grains. The data are collected by FAO through annual questionnaires using standard definitions and reporting methods. Percentage of population using basic water services connotes the households with access to improved water source including piped water, tube wells or boreholes, protected springs, and rainwater collection. Percentage of population using basic sanitation services implies the households using sanitation facility such as pit latrines, flush toilets with a sewage connection.

2. COVID-19 and climate change impacts

2.1. Impact of COVID-19 on smallholders

The full impact of COVID-19 on smallholders is not yet known; however, there are some early evidence and potential impacts in terms of supply, demand, labour, falling/rising prices, declining food production, famine and death as presented in Figure 1. COVID-19 exacerbates the underlying climate change impacts compromising food and water security, thereby threatens further damage to the lives and livelihoods of smallholders already put at risk by climate change impacts. Figure 1 suggests temporal effects like lockdowns make it harder for farmers to obtain vital inputs including seeds, fertilizers and field labor subsequently causing farmers to miss out on planting and harvesting seasons.

Figure 1. Potential impacts of COVID-19 on smallholders

Source: Author’s elaboration. Note: Arrows from COVID-19 at the apex point to lockdown triggering a chain of repercussions ending at the bottom with possibilities of more deaths from famine than from COVID-19.

Farmers of perishable products such as milk, fruits, vegetables, and flowers whose harvest remains uncollected due to lockdowns or dusk-dawn curfew have resorted to selling their products at throw-away prices or throwing away some harvests thereby incurring huge losses and lay off workers (Galanakis 2020). On the other hand, the limited free flow of workers means a shortage of workers to help with planting and incase of harvesting, may cause part of the produce to be lost, and hence higher food prices. Smallholders are major food producers, if circumstances arise whereby a high proportion are affected by COVID-19, this may cause a substantial reduction in food production. Consequently, Figure 1 shows this can trigger a chain of repercussions including food shortages, food supplies falling behind food demand leading to increasing food prices, food crises with direct implications on poverty, hunger, social unrest, and stability (Devereux et al. 2020).

Not only will smallholders experience difficulties in accessing enough food for survival and adequate nutrition, but also whole communities that rely on them for food production thereby aggravating malnutrition status leading to next generation reductions in human capital and ensuing economic impacts (Jambor et al. 2020). Beasley (2020) warns delay in preparedness and action to secure access to food security may expose the world to multiple famines of Biblical proportions (immense disasters similar to biblical accounts of catastrophes). Figure 2 depicts the estimated number of hungry people in millions by 2021 due to COVID-19 impacts. If left unchecked there is a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of COVID-19 (famine) than the virus itself (Amadasun 2020).

Figure 2. Estimated number of hungry people (millions) by 2021 due to COVID-19 impacts

Source: Hinnant and Mednick (2020).

Note: The estimates are in the following ranges: 15 million & over, 5–10, 2.5–5, 1–2.5, 0.5–1, 0.1–0.5.

The impoverished smallholders are mostly more vulnerable to economic shocks including COVID-19 lockdown, considering that they lack social safety nets, have low productivity, low rates of savings, and investments. Failure to receive support including access to seeds, market, finance, and social protection schemes may cause smallholders to resort to selling their tools, land, and assets; this may lead to a temporary or permanent shutdown of their farming activities. Consequently, leading to job losses, a surge in poverty triggering a sharp rise in child labor, child marriage, low school enrolment rates (Guido et al. 2020; ILO 2020). Children and young people have been out of school due to lockdown, thereby threatening educational decline particularly for students from low-income households without access to virtual learning facilities (Wyse et al. 2020). Furthermore, this set of children risk malnutrition due to missing out on nutritious school meals (Headey et al. 2020).

COVID-19 has triggered a global economic recession of expensive imports and low volumes of exports thus low cash inflows will hit smallholders who mostly rely on imports for their food and fuel needs and exports of primary commodities (Kathiresan et al. 2020; Beltrami 2020). The lockdown has limited the dependence on cheap food imports and led to the realization of the importance of small-scale rural producers for providing fresh and nutritious food. Thus, highlighting the need for respective authorities to make family farming practices more sustainable and resilient in the face of future crises (Kathiresan et al. 2020). Farmer cooperatives have become handy as collection centers and at the same time minimize the risk of virus transmission since farmers drop off their produce in one fixed place, while a single member of the cooperative is responsible for selling the produce. This has kept the supply chain functioning through market closures (Deuja 2020).

2.2. Impact of climate change on smallholders

Climate change has wide-ranging effects on the environment, socio-economic and related sectors including land and water resources, agriculture, food security and human health. Human activities induce greenhouse gas emissions thereby rising temperatures contributing to global warming. Figure 3 shows the linkages and consequences, for instance, global warming affects rainfall patterns evidenced by floods and droughts. The occurrence of droughts exacerbates water scarcity, and since water is one of the key determinants in agricultural productivity, insufficient water induces crop failure. Agriculture being the livelihood of smallholders, a decline in crop production aggravates hunger, malnutrition, and poverty.

Figure 3. Anthropogenic emissions, global warming, and the consequences

Source: Adapted from Rekacewicz (2005). UNEP/GRID-ARENDA.

Climate change is one of the drivers of migration from rural to urban areas, particularly for smallholders vulnerable to social, economic, and political factors including low adaptation capacity due to poverty, low levels of education, access constraints to productive resources, conflicts, and limited institutional capacity to respond to climate change impacts (Mercandalli and Losch 2019). These factors magnify climate change impacts thereby minimise employment opportunities in the agricultural sector; in response, the agricultural labourers migrate to urban areas in search of employment as an adaptation strategy (Nawrotzki et al. 2015).

2.2.1 Water scarcity

Global climate change patterns have led to changing rainfall patterns, rising temperatures consequently amplifying water losses (Naik 2016). Many parts of the world are enduring water scarcity in the form of the water crisis, water shortage, water deficit or water stress. Water scarcity refers to a situation whereby demand for freshwater by all sectors including the environment cannot be satisfied fully because the ratio of freshwater withdrawals is higher than the ratio of renewable freshwater resources (Liu et al. 2017).

Africa is predicted to become more vulnerable with frequent extreme weather events, increasing the risk of droughts and floods (Christensen et al. 2007). Nearly all the 50 river basins in Africa are transboundary, the declining availability of freshwater amongst communities and countries that share common water access points has resulted in increased risks of disputes and conflicts over scarce water resources. Agricultural production in Africa is largely rain-fed, under climate change contributing to recurrent heat and droughts agricultural land will be lost, there will be shorter growing seasons and lower yields. These changes will have a profound impact, particularly on smallholders (Lesk et al. 2016).

In Asia, the impacts of climate change threatening to undermine food security are heatwaves, prolonged dry spells, floods, and water scarcity (Cruz et al. 2007). It is anticipated that by 2050s one billion people in Asia will be experiencing dry spells culminating in drought and water scarcity. Consequently, Southeast Asian countries have the highest child malnutrition rates globally (Christensen et al. 2007). Agricultural yields are anticipated to decrease throughout Latin America by the end of the century due to the frequency and intensity of droughts exacerbating water scarcity (Charveriat 2000). Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and therefore freshwater lenses will reduce due to increasing demand, decreasing rainfall, culminating in water scarcity (Mimura et al. 2007).

Between 1900 and 2010, it was observed that Lake Victoria the world’s second-largest freshwater lake was fluctuating, 90% of its water is lost by evaporation due to climate change. The low lake levels make its surroundings and the stretch of river Nile risky to drought thereby destabilizing smallholders (Nicholson 2010). Lake Chad, the world’s largest endoergic basin was about 25,000 km² in surface area in the 1960s but has been shrinking; it now fluctuates between 2,000 and 15,000 km², depending on the season (Fortnam, M.P. and Oguntola 2004). Verner (2010) predicted that climate change impacts like changes in water flow threatened to leave 70% of the Andrean population at the risk of water scarcity by 2020.

The comparison of annual freshwater withdrawals across various uses as a percentage of total freshwater withdrawal in respective regions of the world in Figure 4 shows that the agricultural sector is the highest consumer of freshwater withdrawals in all regions with South Asia withdrawing 93%. However, freshwater withdrawals for irrigation do not benefit smallholders since they lack the capital to invest in irrigation, neither do they have a say to demand their governments to invest in irrigation (World Bank 2010). The demand for ecosystem services is increasing significantly due to the growing world population and rising global economy. To meet the growing demand, food production is augmenting leading to water scarcity, decreasing arable-land, and contributing to increasing deforestation (Bedding 2010). Agriculture consumes 70% of global water resources and exploits biodiversity at genetic, species and ecosystem levels. Furthermore, modern agriculture is a fossil-fuel-energy intensive industry certainly, agricultural activities intensify climate change impacts (Altieri and Koohafkan 2008).

Figure 4. Comparison of annual freshwater withdrawals across various uses as a percentage of total freshwater withdrawal

Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank (2020) Note: Data are for the latest year available for 1987–2002.

2.2.2 Hunger and poverty

People located at altitudes below 5 meters are more prone to climate change impacts such as flooding (Cohen and Small 1998; McMichael et al. 2020) with costly consequences to smallholders given that they live in high-risk areas. Table 2 portrays the percentage of regional rural population and land area elevation below 5 metres. Poverty, hunger, and water scarcity are intrinsically linked, regions with rainfed agriculture often face water scarcity, fragile environment, drought and land degradation, high population pressure; and low efficiency and underinvestment in rainwater and water infrastructure all these characteristics contribute to poverty, water scarcity and hunger (Wani et al. 2009). The problem of hunger is deeply rooted in the problem of poverty, the majority of the populations experiencing food-deficit mostly belong to low-income levels (Garcia et al. 2019). In most cases, the problem is not food availability, but the means (money) to access food (Sen 1981).

Africa experienced more than a third of the global share of climatological disasters between 2005 and 2010, resulting in rainfall volatility threatening the production of 93% of Africa’s rainfed agriculture (2012). Declining food production is one of the main factors contributing to rising food prices, FAO (2011) reported that its food price index hit a record high following rising prices consecutively for eight months. Increasing food insecurity and rising prices negatively impact all nations, but the most severely affected are those countries characterized by droughts, floods, and economic stagnation (FAO. 2012).

A systematic comparison of responses of the food system to climate change across a large set of global economic models found the same economic behaviors and similar qualitative results. A large part of climate change shock is felt by the production side and trade responses. For instance, a negative productivity effect from climate change leads to rising prices, resulting in reduced consumption and unsustainable farming practices including the expansion of area under cultivation (deforestation). The price increases caused by the inelastic nature of global demand are likely to significantly increase food costs for the poor, particularly the rural poor are hit the hardest because they also experience reduced income from the production side effects (Nelson et al. 2014). Much of the persistent food insecurity in 2050 will be found in poor households in countries with lower incomes, and in areas where depleted or degraded natural resources can no longer support viable livelihoods for smallholders. Endemic poverty prevents households from purchasing sufficient food, particularly in times of scarcity or high prices (FAO 2017).

The effects of climate change on crop yields vary from region to region; however, anticipated changes are bound to have far-reaching effects in tropical zones of the developing countries (Altieri and Koohafkan 2008). Figure 5 depicts cereal yield kilograms per hectare from 1990 to 2015 and, notably, all global regions’ cereal yield per hectare is increasing but at varying levels, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), has the lowest pace while East Asia & Pacific have the highest pace.

Figure 5. Cereal yield kilograms per hectare

Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank (2020).

Across the globe, SSA has the highest malnourished populations (Figure 6) and will account for most of the malnourished and hungry people by the 2080s (Fischer et al. 2002). A large portion of SSA’s region is arid and semi-arid; and unlike other regions of the world, agriculture in SSA is characterized by low yields due to agro-ecological features, lack of knowledge, low levels of investment in infrastructure and irrigation (Table 3). South Asia is faced with similar issues, such as a large portion of the poor being dependent on rainfed agriculture, livestock, and forestry. Climate being a primary determinant of agricultural productivity, the projected spatial and temporal changes in precipitation and temperature will shift current agro-ecological zones with adverse effects on crop growth and yield among others (Altieri and Koohafkan 2008). The projected mean change in yield of all crops is −8% by the 2050s in SSA and South Asia. However, there are variations in projected mean yield change depending on the models applied (Knox et al. 2012).

Figure 6. Prevalence of stunting, undernourishment, and moderate/severe food insecurity across the globe 1980–2019

Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank (2020). Note: Prevalence of stunting is the percentage of children under the age of 5 whose height for age is more than two standard deviations below WHO child growth standard. Prevalence of undernourishment indicates the percentage of the population whose food intake is below the dietary energy requirements.

The decline in yields largely contributes to South Asia having the highest percentage of stunted children, while SSA has the highest percentage of the prevalence of undernourished and moderate/severe food insecurity, as evidenced in Figure 6. To have a healthy nourished population does not only depend on food availability and access but also utilization. One of the key questions about food utilization is if the food is safe and properly prepared under good sanitary conditions. Access to basic water and sanitation services are determinant factors, each day nearly 1,000 children die of preventable water and sanitation-related diarrheal diseases. Climate change impacts on freshwater resources affect human health, approximately 80% of diseases in developing countries are ascribed to unsafe drinking water and waterborne diseases (Abedin et al. 2019). Figure 7 depicts access to basic water and sanitation services from 2000 to 2015 periods, SSA lags in access to both water and sanitation, South Asia too has low percentages particularly access to sanitation.

Figure 7. Access to basic water and sanitation services from 2000 to 2015

Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank (2020).

Table 1 portrays the food production index (2004–2006) for global regions and indicates that the index points ranged 36–47 across the regions in 1980. However, by the year 2000, the food production index’s points nearly doubled in all regions (as compared to 1980s value points) with the Middle East and North Africa having the least points (81.68) while South Asia had the highest points (90.87). In 2010, the Middle East and North Africa had the least points (109.17), whereas South Asia had the highest points (122.03). Table 1 shows that the percentages of food imports as a percentage of total merchandise imports has been declining steadily across all global regions. Conversely, the percentages of food exports as a percentage of total merchandise exports have been rising steadily across all global regions. Erokhin and Gao (2020) assume COVID-19 impacts will affect most countries with higher percentages of imports as compared to percentages of exports.

Figure 8 indicates the percentage rates of poverty headcount ratio at 1.90 USD a day have declined in all global regions, East Asia and Pacific have excelled in reducing poverty, in 1990, the rate was 61.3% by 2010 had reduced to 2.3%. On the other hand, in the same period, SSA’s poverty rate was 54.9%, and is declining at a slow pace in 2015 was 42.3%. A cross country study by Dell et al. (2008) insinuates that income growth in poor countries has been affected by climate change encountered in the last 50 years. However, the impacts are location specific; for example, the projected warming in Brazil is expected to increase poverty levels in the warmer Northern Brazil than in the colder Southern Brazil (World Bank 2010).

Figure 8. The trend of poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day across the globe 1990 to 2018

Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank (2020). Note: Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day is the percentage of the population living on less than $1.90 a day at 2011 international prices (PPP) to facilitate comparison of poverty rates across countries.

3. Adaptation and mitigation capacity of smallholders

Smallholders’ adaptation and mitigation strategies to increase food production are largely undermined across the regions. Women farmers are disproportionately affected because they lack access to productive resources, have the insecurity of tenure, inadequate extension advice, lack market information, and natural resource depletion and degradation (Cohn et al. 2017). Female farmers facing barriers are a great concern because Table 2 indicates that the percentage of women engaged in agriculture in South Asia and SSA is more than 50%.

Despite the challenges of climate change approaching criticality, there are weak political and economic instruments for entering a climate change agreement and for attaining and maintaining its goals. The weak response is largely because climate change is a global challenge whose benefits and costs are nearly of universal reach. The provision of climate change instruments calls for international cooperation based on fairness and power politics (Kaul 2012).

To maintain development progress and fulfil SDGs, climate change needs to be addressed alongside hunger and the vulnerability of the poor (poverty is both a condition and a determinant of vulnerability). This connotes that effective and sustainable adaptation of climate change in the long term is largely dependent on economic development in which smallholders are supported to build their asset base, strengthen those capabilities and dynamic processes critical to resilience and economic development. The support of smallholders requires the cooperation of institutions at global, national, and local levels.

3.1 Agriculture as a potential solution to climate change impact with a focus on smallholders

If the global supply is to keep pace with population growth and dietary changes, agricultural productivity must increase. An increase of approximately 25%-70% above current production could be sufficient to meet 2050 demand (Hunter et al. 2017). The application of integrated farming systems using efficient climate-smart agricultural practices emit fewer GHGs, reduce land degradation and biodiversity loss as they enhance productivity and resilience (World Bank, 2015). Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies enable agriculture to adopt climate-friendly practices, given that agriculture is the interlinkage between natural resources and human activity. Agriculture is one of the keys to resolving the two greatest challenges confronting humanity: eradicating poverty and maintaining a stable climate. The most cost-effective mitigation options in agriculture are cropland management and grazing land management; restoration of organic soils, afforestation, and reduction of deforestation (IPCC, 2014).

3.1.1 Why smallholders? What are the potential barriers to their adaptation and mitigation capacity?

With appropriate support, smallholders have the potential to move towards more productive and sustainable food systems (FAO. 2012). Smallholders are more diversified with yields often composed of more than a dozen crops, assorted animal products contributing to both balanced diet and agro-biodiversity. Smallholders tend to apply traditional farming methods that have low fossil dependency as compared to large, mechanized farms resulting in reduced GHG emissions and enhances soil carbon sequestration (Pretty et al. 2003).

Strategies of sustainable development, poverty alleviation, to end hunger and climate change adaptation and mitigation will not succeed without targeting smallholders. To do this, there is a need for information about how much and which food is produced by smallholders, how much of their income is generated by farming, how much produce they sell, the major constraints they face, etc. Such information will uncover the main constraints to adaptation and mitigation at the same time underscore the differences in family farms between countries and regions across the globe. FAO (2018) came up with a comprehensive, systematic, and standardized data set of smallholder profiles across the globe. Presently, the dataset consists of 19 countries, 8 from SSA, 5 from Asia, 4 from Latin America and the Caribbean, and 2 from Europe and Central Asia. Table 3 depicts the characteristics of smallholders on selected variables. The table is for demonstration purposes since it covers very few countries as compared to the numerous countries in the developing world and emerging economies.

Characteristics of poverty such as low income, insufficient food availability, low levels of education, reduced access to productive resources can limit the possibilities of adaptation and mitigation. Furthermore, poor communities tend to have limited skills at the same time lack social organization to facilitate the scaling up of adaptation and mitigation (Huettner 2012). Afforestation can compete with increasing land for agriculture by deforestation (Forner et al. 2006) or large-scale bioenergy compromises food security (Nonhebel 2005). The size of family farms, their production patterns and factor use largely depend on agro-ecological and soil conditions, technology, relative prices of inputs and outputs as well as the family size. In Table 3, innovation technology is represented by a percentage of households using improved seeds, extension services and owning telephone lines (communication), Table 3 indicates incredibly low levels of technology in all the regions, the same case applies to the use of inputs represented by the use of motorized equipment.

The percentage of land under irrigation is relatively low in SSA, Latin America and the Caribbean. The extent of commercialization (input and output market) and investment (access to credit) of smallholders is exceptionally low, particularly in SSA. All the regions except for Europe and Central Asia have low levels of education. Maximum farm sizes are below 5 acres in all regions apart from Latin America and the Caribbean. All regions have high levels of poverty, large sizes of households, 5 Km and over from the road. Over 50% of income in SSA and Asia is from on-farm income.

Cultural values and social acceptance could be a barrier or an opportunity to mitigation depending on specific circumstances. Sustainable implementation of mitigation measures largely depends on governance issues including transparency and accountability. There is a need for clear land tenure and land use rights regulations and enforcement (Palmer 2011). Institutional capacity is a prerequisite for securing equality among social groups and individuals, particularly as concerns smallholders as main stakeholders (Laitner et al. 2000).

Mitigation potential in the agricultural sector is site-specific even within the same region or cropping system (Baker et al. 2007). At the local level specific soil-conditions, water availability, frequent droughts in cases of Africa, changes in hydro-meteorological events in Asia, Central and South America need to be considered in defining mitigation potentials of the respective regions (Rotenberg and Yakir 2010). Mitigation technologies such as afforestation, use of fertilizer and irrigation (Table 2), cropland, grazing, land management, improved livestock breeds and diets are not well managed and re-used as knowledge assets for scientific communication, technical documentation and learning in many areas where mitigation could take place (IPCC, 2014).

Technology should be adapted to local needs by focusing on existing local possibilities (Kandji et al., 2006). A lack of trained people is a barrier to the implementation of appropriate technologies. Technology improvement and technology transfer are crucial for the sustainable increase of agricultural production in both developed and developing countries with positive impacts in terms of mitigation, soil, and biodiversity conservation (Tilman et al., 2011).

There is a need to enhance the capacity of individuals in developing countries in addressing climate change in agriculture. Enhancement calls for educating people on issues related to water conservation, watersheds and water protection from pollution, environment, and family planning. Local institutions require training in administration and planning, and in capacity building to be effective in handling adaptation and mitigation.

Education and advice at the farm level are crucial for farmers who tend to make decisions using information available to them. Farmers’ choices are influenced by the level of education, gender, age, the wealth of head of household, access to extension services and credit, information on climate, agro-ecological settings (Deressa et al. 2009). Farmers with higher levels of education are more likely to adapt to climate change because of their ability to access improved technologies. Information on weather and climate change forecasts/projections given to farmers must be up to date and corresponding to local conditions (DFID 2004).

3.2. Reaching out to smallholders via agricultural cooperatives (farmer organizations)

Cooperatives can play an important role in accelerating the adoption of agricultural technologies for adaptation and mitigation (Wossen et al. 2017). Cooperatives are multipurpose organizations that respond to the diverse economic and social needs of their members. Cooperatives are a platform in overcoming barriers to adaptation and mitigation, for evidence shows that efficient cooperatives can empower their members economically and socially by offering them a range of services including access to land, financial services, agro-inputs, agricultural machinery, irrigation, transport, market, training and farm implements through subsidiaries at reasonable prices (FAO 2012aa; Serfilippi 2018).

Cooperatives can adopt a multi-pronged approach in addressing smallholders’ constraints. For example, cooperatives can cultivate nutrition programs to improve the quantity, quality, price, use and governance of nutritious foods and increase smallholders’ resiliency to economic and climate-induced food insecurity (Smith et al. 2003). Cooperatives can increase smallholders’ income by the marketing of products through cooperative networks and diversification into other livelihoods to minimize dependence on rainfed agriculture. They can provide micro-insurance against climate change effects at affordable prices to meet the needs of the uninsured members (Banthia et al. 2009).

Cooperatives encourage members to interact with each other while sharing knowledge, experiences, and resources; therefore, are an appropriate platform for adaptation and mitigation strategies (Wanyama et al. 2009). In the context of women farmers who are at a greater disadvantage in adapting to climate change, cooperatives offer networks of mutual support and solidarity that allow women’s social capital to grow, improve their self-esteem and self-reliance. This enables women to acquire a greater voice in decision-making and can therefore participate in climate change issues.

Trained cooperatives’ staff in sustainable farming practices can in turn train their members in (a) Natural resource management such as sustainable irrigation practices to facilitate farming during both drought and dry seasons. (b) Raise awareness of soil degradation and train farmers in better land management techniques to stop soil degradation. Soil erosion can be controlled by planting trees to anchor the soil and reduce the effects of erosion from water. (c) Terracing of slopes to reduce the effects of water runoff and help to conserve rainwater. (d) Green manure; biological pest control; and crop rotation and mixed cropping to increase the nutrients of the soil as well as reduce pests and crop disease (Morton 2007).

Managed cooperatives offer high quality, efficient and effective services to their members; contribute to wider development issues including food security, sustainable use of natural resources and inclusive employment creation. Improved agricultural technologies boost agricultural productivity better if climate change policies are in place (Cunguara and Darnhofer 2011). Cooperatives offering extension or learning services should be encouraged to give preference to practices that support resilient, low-emission agriculture aligned with smallholders’ priorities.

3.2.1. Limitations of cooperatives

Cooperatives’ responsibilities are overstretched by expectations to deliver multiple services to the community; this puts a drain on their limited resources. Cooperatives represent the interests of an increasingly diverse membership, and this may result in conflicts of interests. Leaders are normally older males, large-scale farmers, and members of the rural elite. This jeopardizes the interests and needs of smallholders, women, and young producers.

Public social services and development agencies can step in and help enhance the capacity of weaker members in acquiring skills and in achieving a voice in the organizations. Better running of cooperatives calls for transparent decision-making mechanisms, information and communication systems using media and information technology to empower newer and weaker members, improve governance of the organizations; enforce leaders’ accountability toward their members (World Bank 2007).

Minimal efforts have been made to train cooperatives’ management, members, or the village extension workers (Meniga 2015). Governments and donors must support capacity building in a wide variety of areas including management, marketing, technical aspects of production, input procurement and distribution, policy analysis dialogue and negotiations, strengthen leaders’ managerial capacity and putting in place financial management systems.

To promote the interests of their members; cooperatives require an enabling legal, regulatory, and policy environment to guarantee the organization's autonomy. Public services should collaborate with the organizations by allowing equitable negotiations between the organizations and other sectors (World Bank 2007; Mhembwe and Dube 2017).

Cooperatives require financial, managerial, and technical support to empower them to become effective in their tasks. Proven effective support is demand-driven funds, with cooperatives selecting activities and service providers. Huge institutional gaps remain in supporting the competitiveness of smallholders. Land markets are incomplete and inefficient, financial markets are characterized by inconsistency in access and information. Insurance against risk is limited to a few individuals and communities. Input markets tend to serve large-scale farmers at the expense of smallholders. Cooperatives are at the initial stages of representing the interests of smallholders.

4. Conclusion

This paper set out for two tasks: (1) to show the impacts of COVID-19 and climate change on smallholders through the lens of SDGs, (2) how to reach smallholders who are the furthest behind first and keep them on the 2030 agenda. Climate change impacts are global with wide-ranging effects on the environment, socio-economic and related sectors, if unchecked climate change will jeopardize progress towards the key Sustainable Development Goals of ending hunger and poverty by 2030. Furthermore, risks the reversal of development progress, developing countries are the most affected, at the same time have a low capacity for adaptation and mitigation due to their socio-economic context. COVID-19 exacerbates the underlying climate change impacts compromising food and water security. If unrestrained, famine caused by COVID-19 effects is likely to cause more deaths than the virus.

Climate change impacts vary across regions mainly due to geographical and social-economic features, for instance: (a) cereal yield per hectare is increasing but at varying levels, SSA has the slowest pace while East Asia & Pacific has the highest pace. (b) The low level of yield increases in South Asia and SSA has contributed to South Asia’s highest percentage of stunted children in the world and SSA’s highest percentage of the prevalence of undernourished and moderate/severe food insecurity in the world. In general, climate impact on crop yields is not severe; nonetheless, there is a consensus of dire consequences of climate change on crop yield in the future (Najafi et al. 2018) conversely studies like Parry et al. (2004) maintain the impact will remain minimal in the coming decades.

Even though agriculture transmits a substantial amount of GHG emissions, it is the only sector with the potential source of cost-effective adaptation and mitigation without reducing production. Climate-smart agricultural practices emit fewer greenhouse gases, reduce land degradation and biodiversity loss thereby enhances productivity. Smallholders’ application of climate-smart agriculture largely depends on the support they receive. Balafoutis et al. (2017); Dinesh (2013) are of the same opinion. Smallholders require improved capacity to reduce and prevent far-reaching impacts of climate change and COVID-19, by investing in smallholders’ local food production to transform farming systems through enabling an environment to access credit and input markets and technical assistance to increase productivity.

Climate change is a global issue with the industrialised countries being the biggest emitters of greenhouse gas whereas the developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change impacts (Mertz et al. 2009; Chinowsky et al. 2011). Therefore, all nations should cooperate and participate based on fairness and power politics; developing countries should be supported to put in place plans for adaptation and mitigation. Cooperatives’ vital role in rural communities makes them an appropriate instrument to link up multilateral, governments, and development agencies with smallholders. Notwithstanding the crucial role of cooperatives, minimal efforts are made to support them.

This study contributes to ongoing studies on the impacts of COVID-19 and climate change on smallholders by pointing out that climate change ought to be addressed alongside poverty, hunger, and water scarcity. Smallholders are the most vulnerable to climate change; at the same time they significantly contribute to food production leading to food security, reduced percentages of malnutrition and poverty. The paper has attempted to show that smallholders can be included in the SDGs 2030 agenda by building smallholders’ resilience through adaptation and mitigation strategies channelled across cooperatives to reach out to smallholders who are the furthest first, targeting to improve water availability and food production to end hunger and reduce poverty.

The paper reinforces cooperatives as a channel to both transmit technology tailored to meet site-specific local needs and to reach out to the furthest behind first thereby meeting SDGs targets. This study informs policymakers, donors and practitioners, site-specific regional needs by indicating the characteristics of smallholders in respective regions in enhancing smallholders’ adaptive and mitigation capacity.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the The Ella and Georg Ehrnrooth Foundation [1].