Developing policy in an uncertain world

SUMMARY

Since the 1960s, the US has depended primarily on a ‘command and control’ approach to managing and regulating environmental and public health risks. These prescriptions have succeeded in reducing some categories of gross pollution. However, they can also be overly rigid and economically inefficient, stifle innovation and competitive ability, and sometimes produce unintended consequences that increase pollution or risk. Such methods are inappropriate for responding to the risks from complex and highly uncertain problems. We propose a conceptual framework for developing regulation and management practices from first principles. This framework ties policy implementation to fundamental values and beliefs about how the world works. It helps to reveal the implications of different policy and regulatory strategies and shows that certain values and beliefs, and the strategies that stem from them, are more appropriate for such issues than other, more traditional approaches. In addition, we discuss how the policy development process itself reflects underlying values and is as important as the content of the policy itself. In a context where risks are highly uncertain and solutions are not definitive, useful content can be developed and improved only through an effective process.

Key words:

• policy
• paradigm
• environmental management
• uncertainty
• philosophy of science