Momentum profits and macroeconomic factors

Abstract

This article tests whether macroeconomic variables and market sentiment influence the size of momentum profits. It finds that although returns to the winner and loser portfolios are influenced by a range of macroeconomic and market wide variables; momentum profits are influenced only by the scale of portfolio outflows. Thus, when investors are sending their capital elsewhere, reduced funds at home, dampen the profitability of the momentum trading strategy. It also finds that when the market closes, below its opening level in the previous six months, momentum profits are higher, which might be a reflection of mean reversion in the market.

Notes

¹ One month between the ranking and the test period was excluded to minimize any effect caused by the bid–ask spread.

² All macroeconomic data come from datastream.