Behavioural biases among interest rate forecasters?

Abstract

Several studies have found evidence that views expressed by other forecasters in the previous period influence individuals’ current forecasts, while other analyses have stressed that occasionally forecasters may have other objectives in addition to minimizing forecast errors. This paper presents evidence, using data from Livingston Survey, that these strategic behaviours are less likely to occur when the accuracy of the economic forecasts can be easily and quickly assessed.

Acknowledgement

The author would like to acknowledge the support of the research project SEC2002-03212 (Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología).