122
Views
8
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Articles

A three-regime business cycle model for an emerging economy

Pages 399-402 | Published online: 19 Aug 2006
 

Abstract

A three-regime business cycle model is proposed based on Minsky financial instability hypothesis. Using this framework and a Markov switching autoregressive model Mexico's business cycle turning points are identified published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).

Acknowledgements

The author is grateful to Mexico's National Council for Science and Technology (CONACYT) for financial support.

Notes

There are few studies drawing inferences regarding the business cycles movements in emerging economies and they also assume two regimes (see, for example, Mejia-Reyes, Citation2000).

There is, however, a debate on how and which regime should be divided. For example, Öcal and Osborn (Citation2000, p. 27) propose that the upswing should typically consist ‘of a period of rapid recovery followed by one of slower growth'. Meanwhile, Ferrara (Citation2003, p. 375) suggests that ‘the contraction phase can be separated into a slowdown phase and a recession phase'.

The margin of safety represents a cushion which absorbs any unforeseen changes in the cash inflows and outflows of economic agents (units or firms) (Kregel, Citation2001, p. 196).

Log in via your institution

Log in to Taylor & Francis Online

PDF download + Online access

  • 48 hours access to article PDF & online version
  • Article PDF can be downloaded
  • Article PDF can be printed
USD 53.00 Add to cart

Issue Purchase

  • 30 days online access to complete issue
  • Article PDFs can be downloaded
  • Article PDFs can be printed
USD 205.00 Add to cart

* Local tax will be added as applicable

Related Research

People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read.

Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine.

Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.
Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab.