Cross-country pollution patterns

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between pollution emissions and levels of economic activity as countries move up the per capita income scale. Previous studies examine the relationships between pollution and per capita income. Pollution emissions are found to be highly concentrated among the lower income countries. Poorer countries account for much more pollution than would be expected from their levels of economic activity. Findings suggest that the proposed US legislation to curb carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions will have a minor effect on global warming. The United States should not attempt costly emission reductions until there is a global agreement on CO₂ emissions that includes lower- and middle-income countries.

Notes

¹Examples include Hill and Magnani (2002), Magnani (2001), Antweiler et al. (2001), Galeotti and Lanza (1999), Grossman and Krueger (1993, 1995), Selden and Song (1994), Hettige et al. (1992) and Dietz and Rosa (1997).

²See Kuznets (1955).

³Few pollution indicators are available for a large number of countries.

⁴The present study covers 120 countries. Dietz and Rosa (1997) compare CO₂ emissions for 110 countries. Most other countries use observations on 13–73 countries.

⁵For example, only two countries in Grossman and Krueger (1995) have per capita incomes in excess of $16 000. Selden and Song's (1994) sample of 30 countries includes 22 high-income countries but only two low-income countries.

⁶Mathematical properties of the index and its shortcomings are explored in Suits (1977).

⁷EKC studies compare pollution emissions with per capita income of countries. Magnani (2001) and Hill and Magnani (2002) report turning points for N₂O of $8000 per capita or greater.

⁸EKC studies on CO₂ report much higher turning points. Dietz and Rosa (1997), Hill and Magnani (2002) and Galeotti and Lanza (1999) found turning points in excess of $9000 per capita. Shafik (1994) and Holtz-Eakin and Selden (1995) report turning points well outside the sample range of per capita incomes.