Homo certus in professional basketball? Empirical evidence from the 2011 NBA Playoffs

Abstract

The current article builds on Berri and Eschker's (2005) research on the impact of crunch time, or pressure-packed performance, in professional basketball by searching for changes in individual player performance near the end of the game. In this way, our study is similar to the study of Savage and Torgler (2012), which examined World Cup soccer performances. Here, we focus solely on National Basketball Association (NBA) Playoff games (from 2011), which are the most stressful games to players. The empirical analyses presented in this study generally confirm earlier research contending that the existence of a prime time or clutch player in the NBA is a myth. On the contrary, our work supports the idea that professional basketball fans often exhibit confirmation bias, wherein they tend to overweight clutch performances that support their a priori beliefs.

Keywords:

• performance under pressure
• confirmation bias
• sports economics

JEL Classification:

• D03
• L83

View correction statement:

Corrigendum

Acknowledgements

We thank seminar participants at Rhodes College for their helpful comments. The usual caveat applies.

Notes

Note: This article has been amended since original publication. For further details of the change, please see corrigendum http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2013.779507.