Testing for random walk behaviour in CIVETS exchange rates

Abstract

This article investigates the random walk behaviour of CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) foreign exchange rates against the US dollar using weekly data from February 2007 to April 2012. Using variance ratio tests, the results suggest that the nominal exchange rates of Vietnamese dong and Egyptian pounds violate the random walk hypothesis and do not follow a martingale process. However, the Colombian peso, Indonesian rupiah, Turkish lira and South African rand exchange rate markets are considered weak-form efficient.

Keywords:

• CIVETS
• random walk
• market efficiency
• exchange rate
• emerging markets
• variance ratio

JEL Classification:

• F31
• G14
• G10

Notes

¹ http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/04/27/hsbc-emergingmarkets-idUSLDE63Q26Q20100427; http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904716604576546632573895382.html; http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/20/civets-guide; http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c14730ae-aff3-11e1-ad0b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz20YRG5bFQ; http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15888069